Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

August Case-Shiller HPI

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 30, 2007 - 10:44am

Hi everyone -- the Case-Shiller data for August was released today. I am very busy this week so I'm going to put up a few graphs with a minimum of commentary.

Here is the nominal HPI decline since the November 2005 peak:

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September Foreclosures

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2007 - 11:40am

The rate of NODs and NOTs declined in September from a month prior, but both numbers remain well above their levels of a year ago and for that matter anything we saw during the 1990s.

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September Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 7, 2007 - 9:03pm

Round two of the credit crunch has most definitely made itself known.

Prices

The size-adjusted median prices were pretty solidy down, with single family homes showing a 2% decline and condos sporting a 3% decline just from the prior month. From the 2005 peak, the size-adjusted median price was down 11% for single family homes and 15% for condos.

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Real Estate as an Inflation Hedge, or More to the Point, Not

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 1, 2007 - 10:10am

It's a little OT for this site, but I put up a voiceofsandiego.org piece linking to and expounding on a Union Tribune article about how the CPI understates inflation. Check it out, if you can brave the slight offness of topic.

To bring this here post on topic while sticking with the inflation motif, I'd like to quickly address an argument that I hear a lot. The argument purports that inflation has been and will continue to be worse than is widely acknowledged (so far I'm in agreement), so real estate -- being a tangible asset -- is actually a good investment to hedge inflation risk (oops, you lost me).

There are two problems with this argument. One is that buying tangible assets to protect oneself from inflation is just great as long as one doesn't ridiculously overpay for said tangible assets. What with home prices' continued disparity with rents, incomes, and the like, buying a San Diego home right now would be doing just that.

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July Case-Shiller Home Price for San Diego

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 25, 2007 - 12:07pm

The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index number for San Diego are out. As we know, the Case-Shiller HPI -- let's just call it the HPI for short -- arrives with a considerable delay, so today's value only represents home sales closed in July (which themselves represent deals made primarily in June). The world was a different place in June and July, lending-wise, and the HPI will continue not to reflect round 2 of the credit crunch until the September number at the earliest.

Nonetheless, just for kicks let's have a look at what was happening with aggregate resale prices as of July:

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Moody's Forecast: Good Luck with That

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 19, 2007 - 4:29pm

Thanks to the fantastic folks at Calculated Risk for alerting me to Moody's latest home price forecast.

According to Moody's, the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos triumvirate is in store for an aggregate home price decline of 10.9% between the peak (which they peg at Q1 2006) to the trough (Q4 2008).

While I'm all for mainstream outfits acknowledging that San Diego prices are going to drop, the particular forecast seems hopelessly optimistic in comparison to what's happened already.

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Sunday Foreclosure Chart Extravaganza

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 16, 2007 - 5:18pm

It's Sunday and the weather is beautiful, so naturally I took the opportunity to sit at my computer and create some charts. Today's topic: foreclosures.

First up is a chart of the ratio of sales to NODs, most recently discussed here but originally explained here. The idea is that measuring demand against the amount of potential must-sell supply provides a good read on the market's health, or in this case the lack thereof.

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August Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 12, 2007 - 10:52pm

August Housing Data

Prices

The size-adjusted median price dropped again for both property types:

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August Defaults and Foreclosures

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 10, 2007 - 3:19pm

That can't be good:

2,350 NODs and 902 NOTs were filed in August. This compares to just 2,388 MLS sales closed.

I'll put some more default charts up once the DQ numbers come out.

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Linkery

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 23, 2007 - 3:20pm

Hello everyone -- Econo-Almanac updates of late have been meager even by my modest standards. So what do I offer upon my return? An in-depth treatise, perhaps? A new and exciting piece of research? Maybe even just a chart?

No, I'm afraid all that I have for you the blogging equivalent to a television show's flashback episode -- the ever-popular list of links. Here we go!

  1. Partner in dim sum consumption crime and occasional Econo-Almanac guest contributor Ramsey Su appeared in the Wall Street Journal to spread his usual joy. Said the WSJ:

    An auction of about 135 foreclosed homes in San Diego Saturday provided more sobering news for mortgage lenders. Ramsey Su, an investor and former real-estate broker who attended, calculated that the high bids for the homes averaged 67% of the prices they fetched when they were last sold, mostly in 2004 or 2005. At a similar auction in San Diego in May, the average was 73%. The auction was held by Real Estate Disposition Corp., Irvine, Calif., which promotes such sales on the www.usahomeauction.com Web site. REDC officials couldn't be reached to comment.
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July Housing Data Roundup

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 14, 2007 - 9:30am

Well, better late than never... let's have a look at the July housing market data.

Prices

The size-adjusted median price was down for both property types, with condos experiencing whackage of 5.2% in July alone.

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Sales and Defaults -- A Logarithmic Look

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 24, 2007 - 8:45am

OK, by popular demand (well, by the demand of two people, anyway, but sdduuuuude gets special priveleges because he's the one who suggested the site's slogan) here is the prior chart with a logarithmic scale.

Note, first, that Excel's log scale is lame, and only denotes factors of 10 on the chart. So I rebased the HPI to fall between 1 and 10, so that it would at least kind of fit with the price per sales number.

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Sales and Foreclosures

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 15, 2007 - 6:27pm

Below is a 1-year chart of the number of resale home sales (condos and single family) in a given month divided by that month's NOTs and NODs, respectively. (I will provide a longer-term version when the DataQuick data hits the streets).

I noted the exact current and year-ago values so that you could get a more precise idea of just how much awful-er things are looking in the here and now.

Looking at this chart, it's not going out on too much of a limb to guess that the housing market will fare worse in the latter half of 2007 than it did in the latter half of 2006.

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Did I Mention It's a Buyer's Market?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 11, 2007 - 1:36pm

I recently read about a new San Diego real estate booster site up at http://www.sandiegohomeownership.com (in the Transcript, natch, where it was of course considered highly newsworthy). I clicked over there just for kicks, and the first link I visited was "Home Prices/Trends."

Go on, click it. Home Prices/Trends.

Is that chart of the obviously mean-reverting data series ending at the tippy-top of an exponential rise supposed to make me want to buy a house?

Because it didn't really have that effect at all.

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June Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 10, 2007 - 9:51am

Prices

June saw a big move down in the size-adjusted median for detached homes:

And looking at the longer-term chart below, you can see that after the meager "spring fling" in 2006, the price per square foot for detached homes started down again in June of that year:

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