Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

February Foreclosure Chart Extravaganza

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 17, 2008 - 4:37pm

As with the data quasi-rodeo, I'm going to be light on verbiage and just update the charts for this month whilst applying a liberal interpretation of the term "extravaganza."

Seems at first like a decline from January, but it really isn't.

(category: )

February Resale Data Quasi-Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 11, 2008 - 11:29am

Because I'm travelling I am just going to present some charts this month with a minimum of editorializing. Hardly worthy of the "rodeo" sobriquet, I admit, but I am comfortable leaving in the analysis in the Piggs' capable hands (or hooves as the case may be). The frightful month-to-month price declines can be found in the prior entry.

(category: )

A February Beatdown for the Size-Adjusted Median

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 7, 2008 - 6:55pm

Both median-based price indicators were thoroughly abused last month. Between January and February, the size-adjusted median price declined 5.7 percent for single family homes and 7.7 percent for condos. That's in one month, friends. Brutal. (The vanilla median was even worse, fwiw, which isn't much).

So much for that burgeoning spring rally.

I wrote a little more on last month's action over at voiceofsandiego.org and I will try to put up some more charts here in the next couple days...

(category: )

This Just In: San Diego Homes are Overpriced

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 4, 2008 - 11:04am

I've updated long-term charts of the ratios of San Diego home prices to rents and incomes:

(category: )

Yet Another Bad Month for the Case-Shiller HPI

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 26, 2008 - 7:26pm

The Case-Shiller HPI numbers for December were released today. The low-, mid-, and high-priced tiers were respectively down 3.8%, 3.3%, and 3.1% from the prior month. The aggregate index was down 3.4%. The pace is picking up for the correction on the high-end -- December represents the first monthly decline of over 2% (let alone over 3%) for that tier.

The tally for calendar year 2007 was: -23.1% for the low tier, -16.0% for the middle tier, -8.6% for the high tier, and -15.0% overall.

(category: )

Foreclosure Chart Extravaganza: January 2008

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 20, 2008 - 3:02pm

Over at VoiceofSanDiego.org, I just put up a piece on the January 2008 sales-per-default data. Conclusion: if potential must-sell housing supply was overwhelming demand back in the protracted downturn of the 1990s, it is now 3.5 times as overwhelming.

(category: )

Random Observations on a Historical Chart

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 19, 2008 - 1:32pm

I've been updating the FAQ list and I thought it would be interesting to denote the start of the Econo-Almanac on a chart of home valuations (ie, CPI-adjusted prices) and sales. I used the beginning of 2000 as the start date because I like round numbers:

Sitting back and looking at this graph, a couple interesting observations jump out at me.

(category: )

January Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 16, 2008 - 2:51pm

Well, better late than never, I guess, for this month's resale data roundup.

We already saw that the size-adjusted median held up pretty well in comparison to the drubbings inflicted in recent months. It was down 1.1% for single family homes, which isn't great but is a lot better than December's 4.6% smackdown. And it was actually up for condos, by 1.3%.

From last January, however, this price measure is down by about 14%.

(category: )

Guest Commentary: Ramsey on San Diego REO Auctions

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 11, 2008 - 7:18pm

My old pal Ramsey Su is back with an analysis of the recent REO auctions held here in San Diego by REDC. He's drawn some very interesting conclusions based on the info he's been able to piece together from the auctions. If you'd like to read more after you're done with this one, the search function will meet all your Ramsey-related needs.


REDC AUCTIONS
by Ramsey Su

REDC has conducted four REO auctions in San Diego during the last 8 months, the most recent being January 26 of this year.

I have extensive data on 3 of the 4 auctions. Here are some of the findings:

Peak/Trough Analysiscurrently down 37%

Properties that went to auction likely represented the group that was purchased or refinanced at the peak and sold at the low of what the current market offers.

(category: )

Put On Your Data Mining Helmets

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 5, 2008 - 9:35pm

As regular Piggs know, I routinely chart out either the size-adjusted median home sale price (which is timely, but not too accurate) or the Case-Shiller home price index (which is more accurate, but not very timely). In this post I'd like to highlight a couple of folks who have been making an effort to better measure home prices without such a lag.

First, our very own forum participant "esmith" has collected the data and written the code to roll his own version of the Case-Shiller methodology, except that he uses the most recent month's sale prices and is able to break out some San Diego submarkets. He recently posted his January data -- have a look at the charts and accompanying discussion, and if you need an introduction to his technique you can find it here.

Second, Bruce Henderson at "And Still I Persist" has written an application that models prices by mining the MLS. Bruce uses MLS asking prices instead of sale prices, which may introduce some noise but also allows the price data to be captured pretty much in realtime (because a closed sale represents a price that was agreed upon 1-2 months earlier). The aforelinked article is chock full of charts showing his results for various SD submarkets.

As if often discussed here, no single indicator is perfect, but being able to look at a whole bunch of them at least allows us to narrow down what's actually going on. So thanks, Bruce and esmith, and keep that data coming!

(category: )

November Case-Shiller HPI Gets Spanked

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 29, 2008 - 10:16pm

The Case-Shiller HPI for November (which includes home sales from September, October, and November) took a veritable beating. Prices for the high tier held up best, as usual, falling by 1.8% from the prior month. But the middle tier dropped by 3.9% and the low tier by 4.8% in a single month -- yikes!

(category: )

December Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2008 - 11:46am

The size-adjusted median resale price was absolutely crushed in December:

(category: )

December Home Prices

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 8, 2008 - 3:51pm

I'm going to get the whole December resale data rodeo up very soon. In the meantime, here's a quick look at the pummeling taken by prices (as measured by our imperfect indicators, of course).

For the month of December, the size-adjusted median price was down 4.6% for single family homes, 5.8% for condos and 5.0% overall. That's right, for the month. The graph below shows the declines from the peak.

The plain vanilla median fared even worse, for what that's worth, down 6.4% in a single month. More to come...

(category: )

October Case-Shiller Prices

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 26, 2007 - 11:40am

The aggregate Case-Shiller HPI for San Diego declined by 2.6% in October -- the steepest one-month decline to date and the worst single-month drop among all the cities tracked by Case and Shiller. Here's a look at how the different price tiers have fared since the decline began:

(category: )

November Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 9, 2007 - 7:51pm

The local housing market was thoroughly abused last month, at least as measured by the size-adjusted median price:

(category: )