San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 24, 2008 - 11:04am
It was business as usual for the Case-Shiller Index in April, with a fairly steep 2.6% drop in the overall index comprised of progressively worse performance in each lower-price tier. This time, the high tier was down 1.5%, the middle tier 2.7%, and the low tier 3.5%.
Here is a look at the three tiers since the peak. Notice how I keep having to change the scale on the Y axis each month to accommodate the continued whackage on the low tier:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 20, 2008 - 12:34pm
I have just put my writeup on May employment up at voiceofsandiego.org. See that article for the words, and see below for the bonus pigg charts.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 12, 2008 - 4:43pm
Before I begin, an administrative note: I am going to take the Econo-Almanac offline this weekend to upgrade the site software. This should help site performance and will result in some improved functionality as well.
OK, onto the rodeo. May was a bit of a weird month as far as the median price per square foot, known somewhat more briefly as the size-adjusted median, was concerned. In specific, the size-adjusted median for single family homes was completely unchanged from April, whereas it was down a brutal 5.9% for the month for condos.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 7, 2008 - 11:59am
The 1,762 NOTs delivered in San Diego last month was a new record. NODs were down 5% from April, but May was nonetheless the second-highest month on record.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 27, 2008 - 6:12pm
San Diego's home price decline continued in March, according to the Case-Shiller home price index:
For the month, the high tier was down 1.2%, the mid tier 2.3%, and the low tier 3.4%. Compared to earlier in the year, the month-to-month declines slowed somewhat for the high tier, even less for the middle tier, and imperceptibly for the low tier. That's what passes for a spring rally in this market.
The following graph shows the three tiers' declines from their respective peaks.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 21, 2008 - 7:54pm
Following up on April's record-breaking foreclosure numbers, here is a look at how sales are stacking up against default notices:
The idea behind this chart is that NODs serve as a proxy for future must-sell inventory (or "phantom inventory," as ocrenter puts it). Comparing sales volume to the incidence of NODs provides kind of a rough measure of how much demand there is in addition to probable/future must-sell supply.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 16, 2008 - 4:41pm
Assuming the EDD didn't go too nuts with the birth-death model last month, San Diego's non-housing economy was strong enough to resist the pull of the housing boom beneficiary sectors.
There's a more detailed discussion of the above graph over at voiceofsandiego.org. Below are a couple of pigg-only bonus graphs.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 12, 2008 - 11:35pm
April was another record-setting month for both NODs and NOTs:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 9, 2008 - 6:19pm
Note #1: My pal Ramsey has developed what he calls a "Contagion Indicator" wherein he tracks the percentage of San Diego NOD, NOT, and REO homes with original loan amounts over $500,000. Here are the April numbers. (Please note that the phrasing on the following table has been clarified a bit from the original post to avoid confusion).
Ramsey's Contagion Indicator
These numbers are a little higher than I would have expected given all the chatter about foreclosures being a low-tier-only phenomenon. It will be interesting to see how much this indicator changes in the months ahead.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 6, 2008 - 4:55pm
There was actually a glimmer of good, or at least not-bad, news in the resale data last month.
But first, prices. As measured by the size-adjusted median price, they continue to drop: down 3.3% for single family homes, .3% for condos, and 2.3% in volume-weighted aggregate:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 29, 2008 - 1:13pm
Yet another crunchy beating was dispensed to the Case-Shiller-HPI last month.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 15, 2008 - 4:26pm
Just a couple quick graphs today, friends.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 7, 2008 - 7:03pm
Alrighty... it's time for the monthly resale data roundup. But first, a brief word from our sponsor (that would be me): I just put up a fairly comprehensive list of frequently asked questions over at the website of Pacific Capital Associates, the financial advisory firm I work with, and I thought I’d include a link here for anyone interested in what that’s all about.
OK, onto the business at hand. As I noted on Friday, February's bloodshed in the median-based price indicators was not repeated in March:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 3, 2008 - 9:46pm
Hello all -- look for a data rodeo this weekend. In the meantime, a brief writeup on March resale prices is available at voiceofsandiego.org. The bears won't get much satisfaction this month, but after last month's brutality, do you really need it?
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 25, 2008 - 4:37pm
The Case-Shiller home price index for San Diego didn't get spanked as badly as it did last month but it was nonetheless down a substantial 2.5% for the month of January. This puts the total decline from the november 2005 peak through January 2008 at 21.1%.
Here's how the three price tiers have fared since their respective peaks:
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