Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

June Case-Shiller Index

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 26, 2008 - 5:38pm

The aggregate index was down for another month, dropping by 1.5%. But what's this? The monthly change for the high-tier index doesn't have a minus sign in front of it? I'm confused...

But it's true. The high tier of the Case-Shiller index managed to stage a spring rally. A late one, and a very small one -- but hey, it's something. The high tier rose .3% from June. The middle and low tiers were down, however, 1.6% and 2.4% respectively.

My Case-Shiller proxy, which utilizes the median price per square foot, predicted a 1.6% decline in the overall index for the month vs. the actual 1.5%. So this proxy still seems to be working pretty well, at least for the time being. The aggregate index is down 29.5% from the November 2005 peak.

Some graphs follow: the first two nominal, the second two adjusted for CPI inflation.

(category: )

NerdAlert: Cool Neighborhood-Specific Housing Charts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 14, 2008 - 2:44pm

I've already wasted a bunch of time tooling around Redfin's new (to me, anyway) neighborhood-specific data pages. They have inventory and price per square foot, among other things, but the cool thing is that it's by neighborhood and not by zip code. They even show you a little map of what they consider the neighborhood.

Don't read too much into these charts, though, because the price per square foot metric is only marginally accurate with these smaller data sets. Still, the charts can be useful in showing the prevailing trend. Perhaps the Redfin charts can supplement pigg esmith's excellent (more accurate, but less neighborhood-y) same-home price data.

(category: )

July Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 9, 2008 - 9:54am

The size-adjusted median dropped once again in July -- at least overall.

(category: )

Secrets of Real Estate Success: Vehicle Selection

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 8, 2008 - 2:29pm

In my opinion, the only thing classier than a bright yellow Hummer H2 is a bright yellow Hummer H2 with a real estate-themed vanity plate:

Forgive the questionable photo quality, as I took this picture through my driver's side window, on my CrackBerry Cam, while driving on the I-5 at rush hour.

Trust me, though: the plate says "DABROKR."

I am reminded of another vehicle I've seen twice in the past around my neck of the woods. It, too, was a bright yellow Hummer H2, and its license plate was "RENVSTR" ("real estate investor," presumably). I never got a picture, sadly, and come to think of it I haven't seen that vehicle for a couple of years now. Maybe it's been repossessed.

So if your real estate investing career hasn't been as successful as these folks', perhaps the problem is that your vehicle is insufficiently enormous or brightly hued. Or maybe your license plate does not do an adequate job of publicizing your participation in what you apparently did not realize was a gigantic speculative bubble.

(category: )

May Case-Shiller HPI

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 29, 2008 - 8:29pm

Nobody should be surprised to learn that the HPI was down again in May. Here's a view from the peak:

(category: )

June Foreclosure Activity

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 22, 2008 - 12:37pm

Better late than never? Maybe? Hey, I can't help it if the GSEs go tango-uniform before I get a chance to do the monthly foreclosure charts. Here they are:

(category: )

Employment Weakness: No Longer Contained?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 18, 2008 - 4:40pm

I just put a brief writeup about the June employment numbers up at voiceofsandiego.org. The following graph was featured:

(category: )

June Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 7, 2008 - 12:28pm

Let's do a quick review of the resale data for June.

As in May, the size-adjusted median fared much better for single family homes than for condos:

(category: )

Guest Commentary: Ramsey on the Bailout Proposals

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 30, 2008 - 1:32pm

Sporadic guest pigg Ramsey Su is back with some thoughts on the current housing bailout packages making their way through Congress. Executive summary: he's not a fan. Read on for Ramsey's take on why the bailout proposals are a waste, at best, and likely to do more harm than good.

(category: )

April Case-Shiller Index

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 24, 2008 - 11:04am

It was business as usual for the Case-Shiller Index in April, with a fairly steep 2.6% drop in the overall index comprised of progressively worse performance in each lower-price tier. This time, the high tier was down 1.5%, the middle tier 2.7%, and the low tier 3.5%.

Here is a look at the three tiers since the peak. Notice how I keep having to change the scale on the Y axis each month to accommodate the continued whackage on the low tier:

(category: )

May Employment -- Negative Again

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 20, 2008 - 12:34pm

I have just put my writeup on May employment up at voiceofsandiego.org. See that article for the words, and see below for the bonus pigg charts.

(category: )

May Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 12, 2008 - 4:43pm

Before I begin, an administrative note: I am going to take the Econo-Almanac offline this weekend to upgrade the site software. This should help site performance and will result in some improved functionality as well.

OK, onto the rodeo. May was a bit of a weird month as far as the median price per square foot, known somewhat more briefly as the size-adjusted median, was concerned. In specific, the size-adjusted median for single family homes was completely unchanged from April, whereas it was down a brutal 5.9% for the month for condos.

(category: )

May Foreclosures

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 7, 2008 - 11:59am

The 1,762 NOTs delivered in San Diego last month was a new record. NODs were down 5% from April, but May was nonetheless the second-highest month on record.

(category: )

March Case-Shiller Index: Back to 2003 Pricing

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 27, 2008 - 6:12pm

San Diego's home price decline continued in March, according to the Case-Shiller home price index:

For the month, the high tier was down 1.2%, the mid tier 2.3%, and the low tier 3.4%. Compared to earlier in the year, the month-to-month declines slowed somewhat for the high tier, even less for the middle tier, and imperceptibly for the low tier. That's what passes for a spring rally in this market.

The following graph shows the three tiers' declines from their respective peaks.

(category: )

Foreclosure vs. Home Sales: Foreclosures are Winning

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 21, 2008 - 7:54pm

Following up on April's record-breaking foreclosure numbers, here is a look at how sales are stacking up against default notices:

The idea behind this chart is that NODs serve as a proxy for future must-sell inventory (or "phantom inventory," as ocrenter puts it). Comparing sales volume to the incidence of NODs provides kind of a rough measure of how much demand there is in addition to probable/future must-sell supply.

(category: )