Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

September Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2008 - 11:49am

Based on the latest month's closed home sales, my simplistic but thus far pretty effective Case-Shiller HPI model forecasts a September decline of 3.0% for the HPI:

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August 2008: The Tardiest Data Rodeo Ever

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 26, 2008 - 7:41pm

Watching Paulson and Bernanke flail around has been a bit time consuming this month. While it's still September, let's get to the rodeo.

I'll start with the Case-Shiller HPI model based on the size-adjusted median:

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Berating Our Fearless Leaders

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 23, 2008 - 10:13am

Well, I called my assorted leaders to register my abject displeasure with the bailout. To keep things short I just noted two opinions:

  1. It's ridiculous that we are using taxpayer money to pay above market prices for possibly worthless assets and that the proceeds are going to highly paid people who knowingly took huge risks.
  2. I hope there is going to be some sort of accountability among all the regulators who first denied the risks and are now throwing our money at fixing their aftermath. If all the same people stay in charge, this kind of stuff will just keep happening.

I don't know how much good it does to make these calls but since a lot of people are apparently up in arms about the bailout it's worth a shot.

Here are the numbers I called:

White House: (202) 456-1111
Senator Feinstein: (202) 224-3841
Senator Boxer: (202) 224-3553
Congresswoman Davis (I'm in 92103): (202) 225-2040

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Guest Comentary: Ramsey on the Search for the Illusive Bottom

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 12, 2008 - 6:01pm

Longtime piggs will recognize the name of one Ramsey Su, a former REO broker who enjoys lengthy excursions into the data rathole. Ramsey has kindly agreed to let me post his latest analysis here (this includes the original piece followed by a clarification/update).

If you like this one, click here for Ramsey's previous postings. This one in particular, written back in February 2007, was particularly prescient and remains one of the most widely visited articles in Piggington history.

PS -- Yes, it's supposed to be "illusive" as in "illusory," as opposed to "elusive." And yes, I had to look up "illusive."

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Monthly House Payments, Rents, and Incomes

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 4, 2008 - 9:51pm

Here's a look at monthly house payments (including mortgage and property tax) compared to incomes and rents:

Loads of exposition can be found in the full writeup at voiceofsandiego.org.

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Shambling Towards Affordability

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 29, 2008 - 5:30pm

I've updated the long-term home price-to-income and price-to-rent charts through June 2008:

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June Case-Shiller Index

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 26, 2008 - 5:38pm

The aggregate index was down for another month, dropping by 1.5%. But what's this? The monthly change for the high-tier index doesn't have a minus sign in front of it? I'm confused...

But it's true. The high tier of the Case-Shiller index managed to stage a spring rally. A late one, and a very small one -- but hey, it's something. The high tier rose .3% from June. The middle and low tiers were down, however, 1.6% and 2.4% respectively.

My Case-Shiller proxy, which utilizes the median price per square foot, predicted a 1.6% decline in the overall index for the month vs. the actual 1.5%. So this proxy still seems to be working pretty well, at least for the time being. The aggregate index is down 29.5% from the November 2005 peak.

Some graphs follow: the first two nominal, the second two adjusted for CPI inflation.

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NerdAlert: Cool Neighborhood-Specific Housing Charts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 14, 2008 - 2:44pm

I've already wasted a bunch of time tooling around Redfin's new (to me, anyway) neighborhood-specific data pages. They have inventory and price per square foot, among other things, but the cool thing is that it's by neighborhood and not by zip code. They even show you a little map of what they consider the neighborhood.

Don't read too much into these charts, though, because the price per square foot metric is only marginally accurate with these smaller data sets. Still, the charts can be useful in showing the prevailing trend. Perhaps the Redfin charts can supplement pigg esmith's excellent (more accurate, but less neighborhood-y) same-home price data.

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July Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 9, 2008 - 9:54am

The size-adjusted median dropped once again in July -- at least overall.

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Secrets of Real Estate Success: Vehicle Selection

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 8, 2008 - 2:29pm

In my opinion, the only thing classier than a bright yellow Hummer H2 is a bright yellow Hummer H2 with a real estate-themed vanity plate:

Forgive the questionable photo quality, as I took this picture through my driver's side window, on my CrackBerry Cam, while driving on the I-5 at rush hour.

Trust me, though: the plate says "DABROKR."

I am reminded of another vehicle I've seen twice in the past around my neck of the woods. It, too, was a bright yellow Hummer H2, and its license plate was "RENVSTR" ("real estate investor," presumably). I never got a picture, sadly, and come to think of it I haven't seen that vehicle for a couple of years now. Maybe it's been repossessed.

So if your real estate investing career hasn't been as successful as these folks', perhaps the problem is that your vehicle is insufficiently enormous or brightly hued. Or maybe your license plate does not do an adequate job of publicizing your participation in what you apparently did not realize was a gigantic speculative bubble.

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May Case-Shiller HPI

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 29, 2008 - 8:29pm

Nobody should be surprised to learn that the HPI was down again in May. Here's a view from the peak:

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June Foreclosure Activity

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 22, 2008 - 12:37pm

Better late than never? Maybe? Hey, I can't help it if the GSEs go tango-uniform before I get a chance to do the monthly foreclosure charts. Here they are:

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Employment Weakness: No Longer Contained?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 18, 2008 - 4:40pm

I just put a brief writeup about the June employment numbers up at voiceofsandiego.org. The following graph was featured:

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June Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 7, 2008 - 12:28pm

Let's do a quick review of the resale data for June.

As in May, the size-adjusted median fared much better for single family homes than for condos:

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Guest Commentary: Ramsey on the Bailout Proposals

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 30, 2008 - 1:32pm

Sporadic guest pigg Ramsey Su is back with some thoughts on the current housing bailout packages making their way through Congress. Executive summary: he's not a fan. Read on for Ramsey's take on why the bailout proposals are a waste, at best, and likely to do more harm than good.

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