Chula Vista; if I don't buy now will I be shut out forever?

User Forum Topic
Submitted by Sean19 on April 22, 2017 - 10:08pm

This is so difficult.I was looking at houses today in Chula Vista.

House 1; loved the neighborhood, liked the house but cracks in the stucco, messed up bathrooms, totally run down and it was over $400,000.

House 2; ok house, move in ready, yard needs work but that is easy but I hate the location.

House 3; Interesting but way more work than I can afford and poor layout that feels closed.

I just don't beleive we are in a housing bubble and I think San Diego will always attract people with money. I think the 2008 housing crisis cannot really happen again the way things are now.

Any thoughts?

I am thinking I should take the house in the neighborhood I like and fix it up but it is such a tough sell the way it looks now. As an added bonus it is pre-forclosure so I had to walk in there and see the family there living in limbo. : (

Submitted by spdrun on April 23, 2017 - 6:07am.

(1) It's always different this time, except when it's not.
(2) The family were idiots and are now paying the price. If you have sympathy, you might offer then a leaseback for a while.

Submitted by ocrenter on April 23, 2017 - 8:56pm.

interesting observation in my corner of the world.

all of the medical assistants and LVNs are buying.

the doctors are not.

Submitted by harvey on April 24, 2017 - 6:11am.

There are fates worse than being shut out of Chula Vista forever.

Submitted by spdrun on April 24, 2017 - 6:47am.

ocrenter: doesn't that just mean that doctors have more student debt and worse credit? ;)

Submitted by ocrenter on April 24, 2017 - 6:55am.

spdrun wrote:
ocrenter: doesn't that just mean that doctors have more student debt and worse credit? ;)

Haha.

In all seriousness, for everyone else not in the business, 100% no money down loans are always available for doctors, even during the hard landing if I recall correctly.

Doctors are also in need of more expensive tax shelter as well.

Submitted by Stripes on April 24, 2017 - 9:52am.

(deleted)

Submitted by givdrvr on April 24, 2017 - 3:42pm.

No market I have seen goes up forever. We seen multiple stimulus applied to our housing in sequence. First ZIRP, and tax rebates. Then more ZIRP and cash investors. then more cash investors and foreign investment. etc etc. Finally, real job growth and household formation if not wage growth has appeared. This train will stop climbing at some point. Unless another catalyst appears on the scene, my personal opinion is we are within 10-15 percent of the price top.

Submitted by Escoguy on April 24, 2017 - 4:09pm.

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Censu...

Much depends on if this really happens.

With the forecast for 100M more people in the US over next 45 years, it is entirely possible real estate won't "crash" again as it did in 2008-11.

Future downturns may be more subtle and regional with far less dramatic impact on the overall financial system.

The US needs immigration to pay for the future entitlements of retirees.

There is no alternative.

Submitted by spdrun on April 24, 2017 - 4:34pm.

Population has been increasing for literally two centuries. There were still downturns, or rather, blessed opportunities to exploit stupidity.

Submitted by givdrvr on April 24, 2017 - 11:18pm.

"Future downturns may be more subtle and regional with far less dramatic impact on the overall financial system."

I concur with this idea, my opinion is we are in the 8th inning before the next pause occurs. Perhaps another catalyst will appear to extend the game.

Submitted by gzz on April 25, 2017 - 12:57pm.

So you want a nice house in a good location thst does not need major work on a $400k budget? Sorry but you are already priced out.

A basic update to a bathroom with everything replaced with brand new nice midgrade stuff is pretty cheap and easy. As in 1200-4000.

Submitted by recordsclerk on April 26, 2017 - 8:28am.

Looking at the charts from Rich, you would have to say short term it's not going to be any better. There should be a nice price jump this spring/summer. Not sure what will happen in the fall, but the short term not looking good. I've been tracking Chula Vista/Spring Valley in the $400 range and would say that there has been a significant jump this spring. Obviously this is not new information, just repeating what's already been said.
Going forward I think there is a better chance that the $400K range will go up to $500K, then go down to $300K. It would be at least a couple years before we see any major correction in prices if it happens at all. Inventory would have to spike significantly.
I think the minimum wage is going to have a big influence on prices. Minimum wage will be $15hr in a few years. Based on that a couple earning minimum wage would be able to qualify for a $200K house. So if prices revert back to $200K in Chula Vista, a couple earning minimum wage each would be able to qualify to buy a house for the first time in history if rates remain the same as today. I could be wrong, but I don't think that has every happened.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 26, 2017 - 10:13am.

gzz wrote:

A basic update to a bathroom with everything replaced with brand new nice midgrade stuff is pretty cheap and easy. As in 1200-4000.

Not for the average consumer who wants a general contractor to hold their hands and provide design consulting. More like $15 to $30k with labor.

Submitted by gzz on April 26, 2017 - 2:12pm.

Wow maybe I am in the wrong business then.

What does a full bath reno cost for your high standards Flyer?

My $1500 included tiling most of the walls, marble flooring, new mirrors, lights and outlets. Kept the old bathtub toilet and sink which were in very good shape, but with new faucets, showerheads, shelves, drains, and cabinet handles. The cabinets were just deep cleaned and refinished.

Submitted by sdsurfer on April 26, 2017 - 3:05pm.

I'd think if you plan on staying in Chula Vista long term then you might as well go for it. If prices do go down at some point it'll probably coincide with higher rates and your payment will be roughly the same. Just make sure you can comfortable afford the monthly payment. Dont get swept up in the "being priced out forever" BS though. Forever is a long time and a lot could change, but if you like the area, home, etc. and are thinking long term I'd think you will do well.

On the remodel front we did our entire kitchen through IKEA for about 7500 with quartz counters/new sink/ceramic tiles/paint/etc (we did keep the old appliances since it was a bitchin old Roper and the fridge still worked). We figured we'll upgrade those when they stop working. We also did our bathrooms for 1500-2k. Go to Bedrosians and sort through the stuff people ordered and never picked up or they ended up with extra for some reason. We got really cool limestone that was $25/sq ft, but they sold the whole pile of leftovers for $100 bucks. Just make sure you factor in a little extra so you have enough.

I'd think you could go to Pinterest or a million websites for ideas if you need them. Good luck to you!

Submitted by thejard on April 26, 2017 - 8:32pm.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Chula-Vista/11...

Cheapest 3/2 detached in 91911

Submitted by Sean19 on April 27, 2017 - 1:56pm.

Thanks for insights everyone.

I wanted to view a property yesterday and my agent tried to make an appointment. They said they could not show it until
Saturday. It just went pending. This is so frustrating.

Submitted by andymajumder on April 27, 2017 - 4:15pm.

Its the same story everywhere Sean. Here in Scripps Ranch anything half decent sells for more than asking within few days of listing, specially in 500-750k range, there's hardly any inventory.

Submitted by gzz on April 28, 2017 - 12:52am.

You know what to do now. Get pre approved for the most you'd ever consider paying and make an offer the first day if it looks good, telling them not to sell without giving you their best offer to beat. If you show you are approved for 500k and they get a full prixe 400k offer from you, they would be tempted to at least see if you will go higher.

Your agent failed you letting a house get away like that. I doubt the sellers were in such a hurry they would not have waited a day or two for you to make an offer if you expressed your interest aggressively. Make sure you are reviewing every new listing in your target area every day.

Submitted by sdsurfer on April 28, 2017 - 2:08pm.

It's super frustrating, but hang in there! I know it might seem whimsy, but I really do believe that it works out when it's supposed to.

You do want your agent to be a little pushy to get you in there asap and to express urgency, but even if you are first and get your offer in does not guarantee it being the one that gets accepted. There are a lot of factors at play and I'd say a quite a few listing agents are taking advantage of the low inventory situation.

I personally think no home should EVER sell in less than a week. Even if they get a full price all cash offer on the 1st day they should still let people see it that weekend and let them submit their offers on Monday too. There is such a misconception that selling a home quick means you are good at your job, but it's bullshit if you sell it for less than you could have if you gave it more time (like 7-10 more days?). I'm seeing a bunch of "coming soon" listings recently that equally piss me off. What is "coming soon"? Putting the listing on the MLS so everyone knows about it instead of just you and your friends and neighbors? Don't even get me started on the ones that say "sold before processing". What exactly is being processed? I'd hard for me to not assume it just means "sold to someone I know before you got a chance with me screwing over my seller since they were unfamiliar with the process" in my translation.

In my opinion a lot of it comes from being a "good" realtor being more of a popularity contest than the skill that I believe it should be. To be fair...I do think there are some really good realtors and it's the few that give the good ones a bad name, but I honestly blame the seller in a lot of instances for allowing it to happen because they chose the person with the most signs in their neighborhood instead of meeting with a couple people and talking with them to find someone they can trust before they start working with them. If their realtor brings them an offer the first day for full price they should say, "Thanks! I'm really looking forward to seeing what kind of offers come in over the next week or two" and hold them to continuing to do their job until they know the offer they accept is the best one as far as price AND terms for everyone involved. Then everyone gets to see it and submit their offers too. I know there are some really solid realtors that will not double end a deal because they think it's not right and I commend them for doing the right thing even though they would make more money if they represented both sides. Representing both sides of the deal should be very rare in my opinion because it's the same thing as the plaintiff and defendant having the same attorney and we know that would not work.

Anyways...I mention some of the above to share with anyone that does not already understand, but I'm betting most piggs already understand the game and the process. If you dont...keep reading this blog and learning from others that do understand the game before you get into it and choose your representation carefully to assure they represent your needs rather than their own.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 28, 2017 - 3:28pm.

gzz wrote:

Your agent failed you letting a house get away like that. I doubt the sellers were in such a hurry they would not have waited a day or two for you to make an offer if you expressed your interest aggressively. Make sure you are reviewing every new listing in your target area every day.

My experience is that in a hot market (foreclosure, short sale, or hot resale like we have now), when properties go fast, contact the listing agent directly. The listing agent is the person controlling what offer the seller sees. Nothing the buyer's agent can do about that.

Submitted by asitl on May 3, 2017 - 11:12pm.

gzz wrote:
Wow maybe I am in the wrong business then.

What does a full bath reno cost for your high standards Flyer?

My $1500 included tiling most of the walls, marble flooring, new mirrors, lights and outlets. Kept the old bathtub toilet and sink which were in very good shape, but with new faucets, showerheads, shelves, drains, and cabinet handles. The cabinets were just deep cleaned and refinished.

Wow, flyer's quote is absurd and sounds more like a full kitchen demo and remodel.

That said, would you please PM or post your contractor gzz? Seems like some pretty good prices.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 6, 2017 - 12:56pm.

gzz and asitl, lots of people don't DIY and they only trust "reputable" contractors.
How much do you think a set of renderings cost, even before a tool is touched?

We have a competitive advantage because we can DIY. I just finished a studio apartment using lots of built-ins and stateroom cruiseship principles. Looks better than an Ikea show apartment.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.