China

User Forum Topic
Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 12, 2018 - 5:12pm

Just watched an interesting lecture by Kai Fu Lee on Chinese innovation and Artificiial Intelligence.
Very interesting talk about the future.

https://youtu.be/bh0TXtB0NxU

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 3, 2019 - 1:09pm.

Really? Please, Feel free to move there ASAP.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 4, 2019 - 10:08am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Really? Please, Feel free to move there ASAP.

Yes, the oil sector is still one area where the US has leadership. But it won’t be long before the chinese catch up, not necessarily in terms of pure tech but in terms of logistics and implementation. When the Chinese take on a project they have teams that can deploy rapidly like the US military. They build almost a small town and get to work.

With this attitude, it won’t be surprising that when Nigeria becomes a top 10 economy, China will be its largest trading partner.

And when people around the world get rich, they will buy American higher education (still an area of US leadership) like they buy Gucci handbags. Education is an “export” product like anything else. Don’t think that makes our culture superior and that people yearn to be Americans. They will go where the money is and use the money to source their purchases worldwide. Economically, that’s the way it should be. Better get used to the laws of economics.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 4, 2019 - 10:28am.

Good Let us know if you need help packing.

You obviously think there in "NO" future here so please,
Take your money and move to Nigeria, sounds like you think it is an up and coming place so good for you, please leave the USA.

Check in, let us know how good you have it once a year or so.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 4, 2019 - 11:36am.

Really? It’s not me moving to Nigeria. It’s my cousin who moved to work for an American oil company. He’s worked in Indonesia and Texas before.

If you (and so many others) think Americans who move abroad in search of new markets for us, are somehow unpatriotic, then it’s no wonder we are where we are now.

BTW, there is plenty of future in USA and around the world. We just need to compete to earn customers all over the world and not cede any market to the Chinese. The mega metropolitans areas of the world are the markets of the future.

And actually, yes, Lagos is an up and coming area. A house there would probably outperform most areas of the US in appreciation, assuming you have the income and knowledge of the local market.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 4, 2019 - 1:51pm.

Well seriously I wish him well.

"not cede any market to the Chinese" I think this is the whole Idea LOL.

Anyway I do think we will get a deal at some point.

But at any point you feel China (or anywhere else) is better that the USA, Please Please Leave, I don't think anyone will stop you.

Submitted by temeculaguy on June 12, 2019 - 12:41am.

FlyerInHi wrote:

Right now US diplomats are telling Europeans not to cooperate with China on development in Africa. Really? We should all be cooperating to lift people out of poverty. When Africans became richer they will remember our obstruction.

Well at least I learned something from this thread, I didn't know China was loaning money to poor countries. Then today I read this article that makes china look like the mafia when they loan money.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/chinas-l...

I know Brian has commented that he thinks CNBC is a right wing network (he's the only one I've ever heard say this, it's center to left-center by most accounts) so here's a New York Times article from a year ago on China acting essentially as a vulture hedge fund with their loans to other countries.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world...

China doesn't loan money to poor countries to share goodwill and build relationships, it a vulture. Also the IMF and World Bank are concerned about China's practices so let's no blame US diplomats, unless you think the IMF and World Bank are also right wing organizations, and if you think that I am not sure I can convince you that the sun is hot.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 12, 2019 - 10:24am.

Temecula guy, debt is a problem only if that debt cannot be serviced and the lenders demand repayment thus triggering a run on the country’s currency. There is no evidence China has done that. In fact, China quietly extended the loan repayment period for Ethiopia.

The Srilanka port is simply debt to equity swap. China wrote off the loan and now operates the port which still services the country. China is losing money on the deal but China is the villain because it actually built something.

Look at all the financial crisis is that past 50 years. They were all triggered by western banks demanding repayment in USD, or Euros (Greece).

I’m not dismissing potential future financial problems. But for now China is delivering, whereas, we the west, failed. China has a vertically integrated development model that is producing rail lines, roads, power plants, etc.... for the developing world. Until we do better, and I want us to do better, we should keep our mouth shut. If anything, China should be applauded for making lives better.

If you are the new Ethiopian middle class, you have China to thank.
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/addis-...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 12, 2019 - 10:58am.

The true bill has not come due yet.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 12, 2019 - 11:45am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
The true bill has not come due yet.

Yes. But in the mean time, there is infrastructure. What has the western development model built lately? We couldnt even rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan after we destroyed them

In Panama, our former colony whose president we kidnapped and inprisoned, China is developing the country and creating a new middle class and millionaires.

Submitted by Myriad on June 12, 2019 - 5:35pm.

what's interesting is that Terry Gou, Foxconn founder, is running for Taiwan president under the KMT party.
He basically said the One Country Two Systems has failed and if elected would allow more HK people to emigrate to Taiwan. Yet is running for the pro China KMT party.

If China forces HK to pass the extradition law, it's hard to see how Taiwan would not vote for a pro-independence candidate.

https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/hong-kon...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 12, 2019 - 7:28pm.

To me the HK extradition law is a distinction without a difference. It’s political.

China is a unitary State where power is devolved from the central government to the regions at the pleasure of the state. Even in a federal system, the states don’t have a choice but to turn over criminals to the federal government.

States have the power to preempt local laws. For example red states passed laws to undo local minimum wage laws. The Chinese legislature in Beijing can legally do whatever it wants to HK.

Submitted by temeculaguy on June 12, 2019 - 7:47pm.

Brian, I know the NYT article was long but you should read it all. It lays out a pretty good case of how and why China did it, and helping a poor country wasn't part of it. It knew the port would fail and knew they wouldn't pay back the loan. Sri Lanka also didn't need a port there, it's a bad location and the main port still had room to grow. Some of the port loans were diverted to keep the president in office that they had in their pocket. Now China has a strategically located naval base, which was the plan all along. I hope it works out for Ethiopia, but more than likely China's actual motive might be something different. If it's not then we won't need the red cross, China is the new charity here to save everyone. Yay!!

Submitted by Myriad on June 12, 2019 - 9:09pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
To me the HK extradition law is a distinction without a difference. It’s political.

...
The Chinese legislature in Beijing can legally do whatever it wants to HK.

Technically that's not true per the HK Basic Law.
https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawt...
Article 8, 11, and 18 address this
Article 18 "The laws in force in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be this Law, the laws previously in force in Hong Kong as provided for in Article 8 of this Law, and the laws enacted by the legislature of the Region.
National laws shall not be applied in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region except for those listed in Annex III to this Law. The laws listed therein shall be applied locally by way of promulgation or legislation by the Region."

China can do what they want because they have an economic stranglehold on the city and government.

One Country Two Systems is dead, and with it, the so called peaceful reunification with Taiwan. If there is any reunification it will be because it was forced too.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 13, 2019 - 10:27am.

Temecula guy. I read the NYT everyday. I miss few articles.
Of course, China has ulterior motives, just like we do. And of course, there is corruption. But in the end there is a port.

In contrast, what about US reconstruction dollars in Afghanistan? We had corrupt afghan and US officials also but no infrastructure to speak of.

China is not a charity like the Red Cross. But they do build infrastructure and businesses that lift people out of poverty. Charity is not the main motivation — money and power are. I would love for the US to do better than China. How about building a new subway system in Tijuana? The Chinese might get there before us.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 13, 2019 - 10:43am.

Myriad, technically, local laws don’t preempt national laws. It’s the other way around.
For example, the federal government could enforce marijuana bans if it wanted to, despite local laws. But the feds stay quiet because of political reasons.

For Taiwan, I think that once Jared Kushner solves the Middle East, he will turn to finding a permanent solution to Taiwan.

Submitted by Myriad on June 13, 2019 - 8:19pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
For Taiwan, I think that once Jared Kushner solves the Middle East, he will turn to finding a permanent solution to Taiwan.

LOLOL, thanks for the comedy.
At least we know who the Communist/autocratic sympathizers are on this forum.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 14, 2019 - 8:57am.

I don’t have a particular liking of the chinese communists. But I don’t think that China should be broken up.

I admire the development that the Chinese accomplished for themselves and the word. It’s good for the world that there is a development model that is a challenge to the US. It forces us to rethink our system and do better.

I was debating with a friend a couple days ago about what China would have been had the tianamen “revolution” been successful. Would China be a clusterfuck like the Philippines or Indonesia, which would fit US geopolitics very well; or would China be a leader in key technologies like it is today? Would there be millions of Chinese millionaires and a new massive middle class driving the world economy forward?

I try to not look at China from an American point of view but from a world view. Had China not build infrastructure for Africa, would we or the Europeans have stepped up? Would there be a massive Belt and Road initiative that delivers development to the places most in need? I’ll be planning a trip when they open the high speed rail from China to Thailand via Laos.

The mobile revolution in the developing world was made possible by Huawei that built the networks. And also by Chinese entrepreneurs who fanned out across the world to sell and provide credit for cheap mobile phones to customers who were previously never connected.

Submitted by spdrun on June 16, 2019 - 3:05pm.

What will a general strike in Hong Kong do to China's finance industry? Fun to watch, anyway, and the Chinese have their hands tied -- there's too much money and press for them to reenact Tiananmen Square in 2019.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 19, 2019 - 9:36am.

We should stop all the self congratulations and worry about lost business opportunities.
If there one place in Asia we should be investing, it’s the Philippines. As Trump would say, it’s up to us to provide a better deal.

A U.S. Ally Is Turning to China to ‘Build, Build, Build’
The Philippines is converting a historic American military base into a city. Its key funder? China.
https://www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

How much do you think condos and houses in New Clark City will be worth? Certainly more than in most American cities. A new well-to-do class is being born, thanks to China and there goes our influence and credibility. Even though there is much admiration and respect for the US in the Philippines, people will know where their wealth comes from.

https://youtu.be/bjuqAH4cf5E

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 19, 2019 - 10:16am.

LOL China housing model proves home values actually can grow to the sky if they are properly managed. (30 YEARS!!!).

It goes to show you what can be achieved if you have total power over the Central bank as Well as everything else.

Your mileage may very else where.

It also proves a housing bubble is the fastest way to create a wealthy middle class, provided you can maintain the bubble.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 19, 2019 - 10:40am.

....but remember, government planning is supposed to lead to catastrophic failure like it did in USSR and Venezuela.

Pretty soon Filipinos will be able to sell a condo in New Clark City for a house in USA. Cash. The Chinese did it. And even the Vietnamese are now the second EB-5 visa applicants.

But my point is that when Filipinos ride the new Chinese high speed train from Clark to Subic pass a new resplendent city, their admiration will turn to China. It’s happening all over the world. China is building soft power by producing things and creating a global middle class.

Meanwhile the USA threatens war and tariffs.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 19, 2019 - 10:56am.

So we should give Trump control of the central bank?

As well as all zoning and EPA for the entire USA.
(states sorry Trump is in control )

As well as all investments inside or outside the USA by USA citizens.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 19, 2019 - 10:44am.

duplicate

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 19, 2019 - 11:10am.

Oh, it’s not like that in China.
They actually have good policies run by PhDs who studied here in USA.

China was bad during the Mao Era because the economy was run by uneducated peasants. Then students came here to study economics, thanks to the Ford Foundation. So, yeah, China owes us a debt of gratitude.

The problem with the USA now is that we have death of expertise and we are elevating the peasants. That’s what happened in Venezuela. I am not saying there is equivalence, but there is gridlock in USA because we do have “peasants” running things.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 19, 2019 - 11:23am.

spdrun wrote:
What will a general strike in Hong Kong do to China's finance industry?

Times change. If I recall, when HK was returned to China, it was the golden goose producing 40% of GDP. Now HK is 3%. One country, 2 systems was a way to keep the golden goose alive and producing.

In the decade prior to 1997, 1 million Hong kongers left. I have friends whose families owned SFRs in Hong Kong. They now have heartburns thinking about all the wealth they gave up by “retiring” early in the West. Now, you can only dream of an SFR on the hills in HK.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 19, 2019 - 11:51am.

Whatever,

Anyway one last thing, in china you only own your house until XI says you don't anymore.

And it is a 70 year lease, sometimes it's yours and you'er families, sometimes it is not after that.

Depends on how well connect you are.

"there is gridlock in USA because we do have “peasants” running things"

Thank God.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 19, 2019 - 12:28pm.

A leasehold can be more valuable than a freehold.

Life is a lease. Negotiate well.

The-Shoveler wrote:

And it is a 70 year lease, sometimes it's yours and you'er families, sometimes it is not after that.

But seriously, you’re not being financially rational. The markets, when valuing a property, have already discounted the fact that it’s a leasehold. It’s like condos in Hawaii.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 19, 2019 - 1:08pm.

Forcing your wealthy to buy your condos (can not take money out of country "well most non-well connected anyway"), it's either take your chances with the china stock market or buy condos LOL.

Anyway I could go on but arguing with you in completely pointless, you just spin and go in circles as long as you see what you think are glorious cities.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 19, 2019 - 4:45pm.

Yes I am impressed by resplendent futuristic cities.

I guess we are in agreement the China model works in building wealth. Engineering works in spades and we don’t need to bend to that whims of the market.

But if what you say is true, there would be a thriving black currency market and the RMB would be worth a lot less. In which case China could not be accused of keeping it artificially low. And that doesn’t explain the increase in Chinese currency use around the world.

The more important fundamental question is why is China successful at central planning where other countries failed? And if China were not successful, we would not bother to force them to abandon China 2025. They don’t promote China 2025 anymore to appease Trump, but they are surely still doing it.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 19, 2019 - 5:26pm.

Absolutely mind-numbingly pointless.

Yes we should give the president absolute control of the central bank and EPA and zoning, plus let the prez control all money leaving or staying in the country

anything in the way gets taken over by the state.

Just kidding LOL.

Absolutely mind-numbing

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.