China

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Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 12, 2018 - 5:12pm

Just watched an interesting lecture by Kai Fu Lee on Chinese innovation and Artificiial Intelligence.
Very interesting talk about the future.

https://youtu.be/bh0TXtB0NxU

Submitted by Hobie on May 16, 2019 - 10:39am.

As been mentioned, these tariffs are simply undoing some of the wrongs from the past. Remember how we used to have a huge manufacturing base? And, remember why steel production etc went to china? Not just cheap labor, but the EPA. They don't have the environmental laws our industries have to follow.

Quietly, Trump is unwinding the overreaching power of the EPA which will bring manufacturing back from China making tariffs null. It will take a couple of years.

Same goes for the farmers and the Clean Water Act. Fee, permits are out of control. Politically driven EPA.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 16, 2019 - 11:07am.

To me religion has no place in a modern society.
How would feel Flu if Iran sent Muslims on missions to US towns like we demand to send missionaries to other countries.

The topic is China’s economic model. It’s producing a lot of innovation and goods for the world. Maybe we should adopt some of it.

Think of it this way.... on the international stage you have the American model, the Chinese model, the European model, the Russian model. All you need to do is deliver the goods that people want and they will naturally follow.

Right now China is building a train to link China to Laos, Thailand, then eventually all the way to Singapore. Students are studying Chinese so they can do business after graduation. Why don’t we build bridges and trains instead of threatening war all the time? Why don’t we encourage Americans to travel and build cultural bridges?

Right now US diplomats are telling Europeans not to cooperate with China on development in Africa. Really? We should all be cooperating to lift people out of poverty. When Africans became richer they will remember our obstruction.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 16, 2019 - 11:19am.

Hobie wrote:
As been mentioned, these tariffs are simply undoing some of the wrongs from the past. Remember how we used to have a huge manufacturing base? And, remember why steel production etc went to china? Not just cheap labor, but the EPA. They don't have the environmental laws our industries have to follow.

Quietly, Trump is unwinding the overreaching power of the EPA which will bring manufacturing back from China making tariffs null. It will take a couple of years.

Same goes for the farmers and the Clean Water Act. Fee, permits are out of control. Politically driven EPA.

Good to know. So it’s a well thought out long term strategy. In the mean time American households are paying more in taxes, money Trump collects and gives to farmers.

Did you hear that the government is planning to buy farm commodities and donating them to poor countries? How generous.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 16, 2019 - 11:42am.

So a ruthless dictator who crowned himself ruler for life does has a place in modern society LOL?

Anyway these type of dictatorships will fail eventually, it only works while things are going well (or under very harsh military rule).

There is very little or no acceptance of non-conforming or non-conformance in these societies, maybe think about that a little.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 16, 2019 - 12:43pm.

I am focused on the goods that China is providing to the world. New cities, amazing infrastructure, consumer goods — things you can see, feel, use.
I wish the USA was doing it for the world. If you’re a new middle class professional living in a high rise condo in Addis Ababa, you have China to thank, not the USA.

If we were so sure China would collapse then we would not worry so much — just stay calm and carry on. Shoveler, you may like the China Uncensored Youtube channel by the Falung Gong. According to them China will collapse anytime.

Why do you think that Italy is the first NATO country to join Belt and Road despite US protests? Because they have luxury goods that Chinese consumers desire; and those goods cannot be duplicated. We should make goods that China wants and if we don’t it’s our problem Actually, we make many high tech goods China wants to buy but we restrict sales because we are worried China will reverse engineer or use the products against us. Here, it’s the US is being mercantilist and China being free trade.

Submitted by flu on May 16, 2019 - 1:29pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
To me religion has no place in a modern society.
How would feel Flu if Iran sent Muslims on missions to US towns like we demand to send missionaries to other countries.

The topic is China’s economic model. It’s producing a lot of innovation and goods for the world. Maybe we should adopt some of it.

Think of it this way.... on the international stage you have the American model, the Chinese model, the European model, the Russian model. All you need to do is deliver the goods that people want and they will naturally follow.

Right now China is building a train to link China to Laos, Thailand, then eventually all the way to Singapore. Students are studying Chinese so they can do business after graduation. Why don’t we build bridges and trains instead of threatening war all the time? Why don’t we encourage Americans to travel and build cultural bridges?

Right now US diplomats are telling Europeans not to cooperate with China on development in Africa. Really? We should all be cooperating to lift people out of poverty. When Africans became richer they will remember our obstruction.

I normally don't quote BrianSD directly, nor do I respond to his replies, but....

I wanted to make sure I quoted this completely so it can't be deleted or altered with Brian later denying he said it...

Nice deflection and redirect BTW, Brian.

FlyerInHi wrote:
To me religion has no place in a modern society.
How would feel Flu if Iran sent Muslims on missions to US towns like we demand to send missionaries to other countries.

Brian, you must be getting really old and starting to exhibit dementia...So let me understand your logic...

You don't like religion, and because you don't like religion, and since you feel it has no place in modern society, it's perfectly ok with you, regardless any sort of humanitarian concerns, for the Chinse government to hunt out any of these folks in China that practice Falun Gong, arrest them, imprison them, execute them, and then harvest their organs so that some westener foreigner can travel to places like Austria to get a organ transplant... And also, in your mind, Brian, there is nothing wrong with the Chinese government for hunting down people that practice Falun Gong, arrest them, imprison them, execute them, just so bio-tech companies can skin these people and extract collagen from their corpses, where it can be collected and sold to a western cosmetics companies...just so companies in China can make money....

Wow Brian...Before, I thought you were just a progressive babbling fool... Today, i realize besides being a progressive babbling hypocritical fool... You also have a very dark heart and are a sociopath. Congrats! You win, whatever award you and spdrun are competing for on this blog. Thankfully, i don't really know you in real life.. It would be, well, disturbing.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 16, 2019 - 1:52pm.

I never said much about falung gong. I just think that it’s a US backed organization that is raising a lot of money in USA.

We can do business with China just like we do business with Saudi Arabia. In fact, Qualcomm’s very first install were in Myanmar when it was a military dictatorship under sanctions, even before CDMA was deployed in USA.

Submitted by ocrenter on May 16, 2019 - 9:43pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I never said much about falung gong. I just think that it’s a US backed organization that is raising a lot of money in USA.

How is the above statement any different than typical Chinese government propaganda?

Submitted by ocrenter on May 16, 2019 - 9:54pm.

Let’s get away from Brian-centric discussion here, he basically swallows Chinese propaganda whole and just regurgitates verbatim.

Let’s get back to the topic at hand, Chinese economy.

Here’s a very timely interview regarding Chinese economic outlook:

https://youtu.be/oeU3wFQvyd8

The segment where he talks about the African Swine Flu was a good one. Especially in regard to the massive swine deaths across the country as the real reason for the decline in US corn/grain import. There’s almost zero report of the ASF epidemic here in the US, but its impact within China is massive. (Btw, full media blackout of the epidemic within China so lots of Chinese tourists getting massive fines when they travel to neighboring countries and get caught with pork products)

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 16, 2019 - 10:26pm.

This latest huawei thing has got me a little worried as it may cause some pain locally.

Hopefully some type of deal can be reached soon, but anyway as I said before this is for all the marbles.

This is no less than a battle for who is going to dominate the future.

Out of other options, this is their goal, we can not afford to lose this one.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 16, 2019 - 10:26pm.

duplicate

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 17, 2019 - 12:33am.

ocrenter, I watched the interview you linked. But please explain to me why a trade war is even necessary if China is weak?

This afternoon I went to Costco mission valley. I bought 2 sets of Mikasa bone China dishes for $40 each, a real bargain for the quality. It’s girly design but I will put them in my furnished rental. The women tenants will appreciate the touches.

If China is weak, then just enjoy trade with China and the benefits of globalization. They are no threat.

Some stupid comments from Tony Nash. Debt is what capitalism is all about. You use money to create growth and unleash productivity. And you cannot borrow from the future, you borrow from savers (individuals do “borrow from the future”, but in the aggregate in the economy, you borrow from savers today. Debt to one party is savings to another).

Moving tech manufacturing to Mexico. Ha! GoPro tried to make their drones (now discontinued) in Mexico. It was total failure.

As far as moving the supply chain. Yeah... US corporations have outsourced to Chinese or Asian companies, US firm own the brands, but they don’t own the supply chain. Chinese developers are signing 99 year leases for business parks in SE Asia. With new export revenues, SE Asian countries will buy infrastructure and higher value products from China. That’s what Belt and Road is for. Plus there is CPTPP and RCEP which the USA is not part of.
For reference, look at what Samsung and LG did when tariffs were increased on washing machines.
https://youtu.be/O6YS2GCDnns

Weakening CNY is good for Chinese exports.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 17, 2019 - 11:10am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
This latest huawei thing has got me a little worried as it may cause some pain locally.

Hopefully some type of deal can be reached soon, but anyway as I said before this is for all the marbles.

This is no less than a battle for who is going to dominate the future.

Out of other options, this is their goal, we can not afford to lose this one.

I agree that it’s about the future. Steve Bannon said the same. Steve Bannon also claims that the China model is unsustainable, if so then why the need for a trade war? I think the China model is working in spades and that China is strong and that’s why we need to worry.

I also disagree that the trump trade war is the answer. We need a new New Deal and go head to head with China with a new Marshall plan for the world. We are losing support around the world now. We may wish to decouple from China, but China is integrating with the rest of the world, especially with the developing world. We may end up isolated.

When the US recognized PRC, we had a hedge with the majority of countries still with ROC so we could go to the UN if we needed to do a 180. China has since successfully broken our diplomatic hedge. The stunning thing is that China was able to get Latin American countries on their side. China has broken our Monroe doctrine but were passive and didn’t offer a better deal to our neighbors in the Western Hemisphere.

If we are blind to China’s successes, we cannot combat China’s influence and power successfully. Honestly, it’s a huge mistake to declare victory from the beginning.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 17, 2019 - 11:10am.

This is what Tom Friedman said. Sure, Trump called the game but his strategy is all wrong.

https://youtu.be/nVBqSOPWIUw

Friedman talks about values. So how do we convince the world to build on our value when Trump has no values and withdraws from international institutions and when the CIA and NSA spy even more than the Chinese?

Submitted by flu on May 20, 2019 - 5:24am.

Adios Huawei. Meet your cousin ZTE and its similar fate.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 20, 2019 - 10:56am.

The Silk road thing was probably never really going to happen anyway but seems all but doomed now.

They are going (or were) going to have a hard enough time just keeping the in country infrastructure projects going and maintained even without the trade war.

It was unlikely to be sustainable over the long term anyway.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 20, 2019 - 4:28pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
The Silk road thing was probably never really going to happen anyway but seems all but doomed now.

They are going (or were) going to have a hard enough time just keeping the in country infrastructure projects going and maintained even without the trade war.

It was unlikely to be sustainable over the long term anyway.

Unsustainable? If you’re in business and your competitor’s model is unsustainable, would you be concerned?

Why is the US going around the world telling people not to take infrastructure investments from China.

Mike Pence made a very nice speech at APEC saying that America offers real help without debt traps. Really? Just empty words. What this shows is that my country, the USA, sucks and isn’t concerned about development for the world and is only concerned about containing China. Where is the new, no-strings-attached new Marshall plan for the world?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 21, 2019 - 6:51am.

The thing about building expensive infrastructure is that it is then expensive to maintain, it is a task that can never stop once it is put into use.

Building it would be extremely expensive,

IMO the more interesting thing is if this Huawei issue is not resolved, who is going to build the 5G phones?
QCOM still owns the chip sets.

Seems there has been a 90 day reprieve on Huawei ban. don't know if this applies to QCOM or not.

Maybe just a negotiating tactic, we will see.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 21, 2019 - 11:51am.

The-Shoveler wrote:

Maybe just a negotiating tactic, we will see.

Not a good thing. Certain things should be based on objective criteria.

The Obama administration had an gentlemen’s agreement for China to adopt US 4G standards with 5G up for play. At the time, nobody thought that China would innovate so fast. The assumption that that China was a laggard copycat export economy that would stay behind forever. Innovation would not be possible because of corruption. Infrastructure would collapse because contractors would substitute bad concrete so they could siphon off cash, etc...

In sports, you support your team but you honor the winner for their hard word. I am afraid that we have become a country of sore losers — a country of Trump supporters.

Take the Philippines, our former colony. They need infrastructure to alleviate congestion. It’s only after they started talking to China that Japan said they would finance some work. In Panama, they needed a need bridge so China built it for them so they dumped Taiwan. Why didn’t we proactively help with development in our own sphere of influence. We suck and now we are also-ran and people know it.

My friend from Panama tells me about her brothers and sisters back home (who are doing better than her own low-ambition military husband). They love the USA, holiday here and embrace American culture. But they invest in land along the HSR that China is planning and they are making money thanks to China. China is building a new middle-class around the world and improving living conditions. We should celebrate that, if not join China and try to do better than them.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 21, 2019 - 12:07pm.

Yes- I agree,
We should encourage IP theft, Demand that everything sold here be made here and that all technology used be shared.
Engage in corporate espionage.

Only give/help others if there is something in it for us.

We should subsidize some critical industries more to eliminate any foreign competition.
We should target all the industries they are.

Solar should be required to made here, batteries etc..

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 21, 2019 - 1:04pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:

We should subsidize some critical industries more to eliminate any foreign competition.
We should target all the industries they are.

Remember that’s against the laws of economics. The Soviets did it, the French, the Mexicans, and Venezuelans too. Government picking winners and losers is a huge waste of money and bound to fail.

When I hear about China creating corporate champions and unleashing them onto the world, I have to wonder about the superpowers of their bureaucrats.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 21, 2019 - 1:05pm.

It's called dumping to kill competition and yes it works if that is what you are fighting.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 21, 2019 - 3:16pm.

Delete

Submitted by Myriad on May 21, 2019 - 6:57pm.

There are many benefits and flaws with each system.
Maybe our leaders will be smart enough to resolve this without a new version of the Cold War.
Past history isn't so optimistic - though China's rise isn't guaranteed, especially on a GDP/per capital level. 12 out of 16 historical scenarios resulted in war.

https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-...

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