China

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Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 12, 2018 - 5:12pm

Just watched an interesting lecture by Kai Fu Lee on Chinese innovation and Artificiial Intelligence.
Very interesting talk about the future.

https://youtu.be/bh0TXtB0NxU

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 23, 2018 - 4:26pm.

So on my downday, I watched this documentary from Singapore, not exactly a place that's kissass to China. In fact, Singapore has been a reliable US ally for a long time. Seems like China is opening its borders to neighboring countries and encouraging development.

https://youtu.be/Kw6SLjeywtI

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 25, 2018 - 4:29pm.

I think we need to look at China objectively with a global view. China has done a lot for the world, especially when it come to mass producing cheap things such as household goods and appliances that people need. Poor in Ethiopia and Rwanda appreciate access to consumer good.

Look what China has done for Ethiopia. Why didn't we do it?

Skyscrapers, trains and roads: How Addis Ababa came to look like a Chinese city
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/addis-...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 19, 2018 - 12:43pm.

The NYT has a whole series on China.
It's pretty objective even though sometimes they fall back on stereotypes that they want to avoid

The land That Failed to Fail
The West was sure the Chinese approach would not work. It just had to wait. It’s still waiting.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018...

The American Dream is alive. In China
By JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZ QUOCTRUNG BUIThe New York Times
Mon., Nov. 19, 2018
Imagine you have to make a bet.
There are two 18-year-olds, one in China, the other in the United States, both poor and short on prospects. You have to pick the one with the better chance at upward mobility.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 19, 2018 - 2:18pm.

I would unequivocally pick the one living in the USA.

There are still Very far more Chinese coming here than leaving.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 19, 2018 - 3:18pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I would unequivocally pick the one living in the USA.

There are still Very far more Chinese coming here than leaving.

Maybe they became relatively well-educated in China and became world citizens.

Did you see that the Trump Administration has a plan to ban chinese students because they are spies. There are about 350,000 foreign students from China. Are they spies or are they longing to become Americans because we’re such a great country?

A few days ago, I met a Georgian refugee from the former Soviet Union working at Home Depot. He was an engineer back home. We talked about America. If you listen to honest answers from new immigrants, you don’t get the typical “American Dream” answer of past generation of Americans.

The world today is multicultural. Easy jet travel and communications mean that today’s immigrants are becoming world citizens.

Submitted by ocrenter on November 20, 2018 - 1:51pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The NYT has a whole series on China.
It's pretty objective even though sometimes they fall back on stereotypes that they want to avoid

The land That Failed to Fail
The West was sure the Chinese approach would not work. It just had to wait. It’s still waiting.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018...

The American Dream is alive. In China
By JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZ QUOCTRUNG BUIThe New York Times
Mon., Nov. 19, 2018
Imagine you have to make a bet.
There are two 18-year-olds, one in China, the other in the United States, both poor and short on prospects. You have to pick the one with the better chance at upward mobility.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/11/19/the-american-dream-is-alive-in-china.html

The answer to the question of why China grew so fast is Taiwan. Which is well covered in the NYT article. Without Taiwanese and HK businesses coming into the vacuum and injecting economic know-how in the late 80's, the take off would not have happened so quickly with minimal roadblocks.

One way to look at China's rise was that China was so economically depressed when it first opened up it really have had no other way to go but up. China's CCP got so much praise for China's rapid growth, but if you think about it a bit, they totally destroyed all prior economic vital signs and had the country at near flat line, then when the patient came back alive they are now the heroes??? As for the economic playbook, they essentially just borrowed the same playbook used by Taiwan, and since Taiwanese businessmen were able to bridge the gap given the same linguistic and cultural base, they were able to replicate and copy the same growth Taiwan experienced in the 70's.

Now Taiwan has created a great playbook for democratization for China to plagiarize and copy as well, free of charge. Problem is China doesn't want to play that game because they see themselves as the KMT within Taiwan, which is now decimated and marginalized.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 20, 2018 - 8:40pm.

Points well taken, ocrenter.

So now, either China democratizes or fails? If those are the 2 options, then we got nothing to worry about.

Taiwan is actually now stagnating and experiencing a brain drain to China.

I think the model for China is Singapore — ultra capitalist in some ways, and a nanny state in many other ways. And the amazing thing is that Singapore does it with government spending at 18% of GDP. I believe if there’s a real estate crash in China, they will roll over the non performing assets into a Singapore style public housing.

Singapore hosted ASEAN last week. Hank Paulson was there. I watched some speeches and interview with PM Lee Hsien Long.

Submitted by ocrenter on November 20, 2018 - 9:19pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Points well taken, ocrenter.

So now, either China democratizes or fails? If those are the 2 options, then we got nothing to worry about.

Taiwan is actually now stagnating and experiencing a brain drain to China.

I think the model for China is Singapore — ultra capitalist in some ways, and a nanny state in many other ways. And the amazing thing is that Singapore does it with government spending at 18% of GDP. I believe if there’s a real estate crash in China, they will roll over the non performing assets into a Singapore style public housing.

Singapore hosted ASEAN last week. Hank Paulson was there. I watched some speeches and interview with PM Lee Hsien Long.

Actually Taiwanese businesses know China really well, most are fleeing China in droves. They see the bubble bursting and they are abandoning ship.

Singapore as a City State used as a model for the world’s biggest country by population? That’s a tough one.

China did not have to democratize now. They could have continued slow and gradual liberalization. Again, Taiwan generated a very viable playbook: repressive regime gave way to benign authoritarian government with sham local elections, grip on speech loosen up gradually over time, sham elections get a little more fair and more national and consequential elections are then added. Soon President is elected indirectly via representatives, after that direct election of the highest office of the land.

This playbook could have been implemented in HK and Shanghai locally. After all, they invented the very pragmatic one country two systems policy. They could have set a standard where if a province or metropolitan region reaches a certain gdp per capital or educational level, they earn some level of local election and so on. Had that been implemented, Taiwan would likely get sucked into the orbit very quickly.

The opposite is true, things are getting much more authoritarian. American and other foreign expatriates are reporting that the crack down on personal liberty is very real, the restrictions are getting worse, and the government interference on daily speech is casting a shadow on everything. The grip is getting tighter and Taiwan sees that and is running the other way. The US is looking at this and realizing China is not following the post war playbook followed by Japan, Taiwan, S.Korea... this is turning out to be a repay of Hitlers' Germany or Imperial Japan. Trump maybe the one starting the trade war, but both parties are on the same side on this one.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 21, 2018 - 12:42pm.

ocrenter, lets say you are right. If people are fleeing China, does it not follow that China will implode on its own like the Soviet Union?
Do you believe that Trump’s trade war is about “freedom” or “human rights”? It’s about forcing Xi to abandon China 2025; you know, social engineering that cannot possibly work.

I agree that there is some capital flight now. However, if well managed, the Chinese diaspora actually is a great export vehicle for China. Chinese “expats/inmigrants” know China and trade with China.

Everything that China has done and is doing has been tried before. You have to recognize China’s successes where other countries have failed at the same things.

Like the NYT story says, we, the West, are still waiting for China to fail.

About the Singapore model, it’s not about copying a city State.
Lee Kuan Yew Singapore with “Asian values” regardless of ideology.
China is doing “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. Capitalism in this case not meaning totally private ownership or initiative, but using capital/money to achieve development goals. It’s the logical continuation of “to get rich is glorious.” The “freedom” and “democracy” we cherish in the West are secondary to money and wealth in Asia, at least until they catch up to the West. I think they are correct because money is freedom.

Submitted by ocrenter on November 21, 2018 - 1:34pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
ocrenter, lets say you are right. If people are fleeing China, does it not follow that China will implode on its own like the Soviet Union?
Do you believe that Trump’s trade war is about “freedom” or “human rights”? It’s about forcing Xi to abandon China 2025; you know, social engineering that cannot possibly work.

People are not fleeing China. RICH people are fleeing China. As for China imploding. That's hard to say, but the fear of imploding may have been the reason for the tightening grip since Xi came on board. Trump's trade war has nothing to do with freedom or human rights, he doesn't care about that. The trade war is because China is trying to challenge the US's Unipolar world.

FlyerInHi wrote:

Everything that China has done and is doing has been tried before. You have to recognize China’s successes where other countries have failed at the same things.

Like the NYT story says, we, the West, are still waiting for China to fail.

Reason for China's success is you had Taiwan/HK exporting their know-how, Japan's ongoing investment and contribution, and the US keeping its market open for Chinese exports. Interestingly ALL 3 major players that led to China's success are routinely vilified within China.

FlyerInHi wrote:

About the Singapore model, it’s not about copying a city State.
Lee Kuan Yew Singapore with “Asian values” regardless of ideology.
China is doing “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. Capitalism in this case not meaning totally private ownership or initiative, but using capital/money to achieve development goals. It’s the logical continuation of “to get rich is glorious.” The “freedom” and “democracy” we cherish in the West are secondary to money and wealth in Asia, at least until they catch up to the West. I think they are correct because money is freedom.

This Asian Values BS is ridiculous. This is essentially a stereotype that justifies the withholding of civil liberties to 1/5 of humanity.

Asian societies such as Japan and S.Korea and Taiwan are thriving with democratic values, yet a totalitarian city state half the size of LA keep getting brought up as the ultimate case for Asian Value. WHY??? Because it fits the narrative of China. And meanwhile a model that is working well for 200 million Asians are tossed off to the side, once again, because China finds that model to be inconvenient. But China apologists like yourself will continue to push the Singapore model, and completely ignore the Taiwan model, the S.Korea model, or the Japan model. Taiwan and S.Korea and Japan proved they can get rich, be glorious, and still have civil liberty and freedom. Try looking into that, will you?

Submitted by Myriad on November 21, 2018 - 3:50pm.

China is following the China model, not Singapore. The goal is a to create a superpower that challenges the West.
It's not just economic, it's social, political, miltiary, etc.
What they are promoting is the China model of growth, but don't worry about personal freedoms, minority groups, or global norms regarding trade, individual country rights, maritime rights, etc.
While at the moment this has been very successful for China for the last 3 decades, there is a paradigm shift on-going. We are clearly heading towards a Cold War. What could happen is that the Indo-Pacific splits into two spheres where open trade, freedom of navigation, and easy access are no longer allowed. Either you are in the Sino sphere or the Anti-Sino (Australia, US, Japan, S Korea, India?) sphere. Already companies are contingency planning for multiple production lines inside/outside of China.
Either way, unless you're part of the wealthy or ruling class, there is going to a net negative to quality of life.

On a side note, this came out last week:
https://www.uscc.gov/Annual_Reports/2018...
Inside was this tidbit
"Congress direct the U.S. Department of Commerce and other relevant government agencies to prepare an unclassified public report, with a classified annex, examining and assessing the adequacy of U.S. export control policy for dual-use technology as it relates to U.S. treatment of Hong Kong and China as separate customs areas"
So all that needs to be done is to treat any Sino sphere country as part of the China custom area and severely limit what types of goods are allowed to be exported.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 22, 2018 - 12:23pm.

ocrenter, you focus on “freedom” because you want Taiwan independence.

I focus on wealth and development. China is perfecting mass production which has given us a world of plenty. With public infrastructure, China knows how do build fast. It’s precisely the competition with the West that China is helping develop the world. I mean look at Addis Ababa. Ethiopia used to be a basket case but it’s now a fast developing country thanks to trade with China.

Myriad, are we really afraid of the China model? It we really do believe in our heart of hearts that a government lead model is bound to failure, then we have nothing to fear.

If we believe that policies do work, then we should come up with development policies of our own. If we give a better deal, then countries around Asia and the world will naturally follow us.

As far a selling technology to China, what do you propose we sell to China other than agriculture to balance trade? The natural economic order is for more advanced economiies to sell higher tech. So by refusing to sell our highest technology to China, we are violating a fundamental economic law — maybe for good national security reasons, but still against good economics. So the trade deficit is of our own making.

I hate to say it, but the ball is our court to provide an alternative to China. If don’t want countries to fall into Chinese “debt traps” then we should give them grants. All talk, no action.

PS: when our large banks lent billions to Latin America in the past, causing economic and currency crises, was that debt traps? Unfortunately, we never saw highspeed rail and beautiful airports as a result.

Submitted by ocrenter on November 23, 2018 - 9:00am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
ocrenter, you focus on “freedom” because you want Taiwan independence.

I focus on wealth and development. China is perfecting mass production which has given us a world of plenty. With public infrastructure, China knows how do build fast. It’s precisely the competition with the West that China is helping develop the world. I mean look at Addis Ababa. Ethiopia used to be a basket case but it’s now a fast developing country thanks to trade with China.

Freedom/basic human right vs wealth/development are not mutually exclusive. China is simply scaling up the Asian Tigers model, but with a twist, which is stifling the next stage of development, aka social and political liberalization. Ethiopia is too early to tell, but it is essentially following the same Asian Tigers model. The question here is does it continue with the China model of perpetual totalitarianism?

FlyerInHi wrote:

Myriad, are we really afraid of the China model? It we really do believe in our heart of hearts that a government lead model is bound to failure, then we have nothing to fear.

If we believe that policies do work, then we should come up with development policies of our own. If we give a better deal, then countries around Asia and the world will naturally follow us.

The China model is concerning because it takes what previously worked quite well, aka the Asian Tigers model, and twisted it into a perpetual authoritarian model. Authoritarianism is dangerous because personality cult is important, as is the need to always find foreign scapegoats, which leads to wars.

FlyerInHi wrote:

As far a selling technology to China, what do you propose we sell to China other than agriculture to balance trade? The natural economic order is for more advanced economiies to sell higher tech. So by refusing to sell our highest technology to China, we are violating a fundamental economic law — maybe for good national security reasons, but still against good economics. So the trade deficit is of our own making.

the trade deficit will exist with or without China. reason is simple, manufactured goods and textile are simply cheaper in developing countries. The question is knowing China's ultimate goal is to push a totalitarian nationalistic worldview with eventual global dominance, do you still allow the trade deficit with China, or do you move the trade deficit to other developing economies that pose far less threat.

FlyerInHi wrote:

I hate to say it, but the ball is our court to provide an alternative to China. If don’t want countries to fall into Chinese “debt traps” then we should give them grants. All talk, no action.

PS: when our large banks lent billions to Latin America in the past, causing economic and currency crises, was that debt traps? Unfortunately, we never saw highspeed rail and beautiful airports as a result.

you are on point on this one. we got complacent and overextended with the middle east wars. We invented the Asian Tigers model and we should have pushed it harder. Instead we fought wars after wars because of our dependence and addiction to middle east oil. I will say this, China construction is really shoddy, it falls apart very quickly, we are talking just 2-3 years. So don't get too enamored with the fanfare and propaganda. It isn't all that rosy.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 23, 2018 - 12:38pm.

ocrenter, as a liberal I'm with you.

However, the USA is not exactly the promoter of liberal values and human rights. Saudi Arabia is a lot worse than China and yet we support them.

Right now, US foreign policy is not based on principles but simply preserving hegemonic power. That's against international law where all countries are theoretically among equals.

It does no good to complain about China. We have to come up with an alternative to China so countries around the world reject to China model and follow our example.

Did you see that Vietnam is following the China model and elevated to Party Secretary to President? Why? Because the pro-western faction was humiliated when the US pulled out of TPP. So the pro-China authoritarian faction is on the ascent.

Did you see that the Philippines signed business deals with China?

Do you know that along the China Myanmar border, Burmese students are welcomed to cross the border and attend Chinese public schools for free? You may think that this is China brainwashing the Burmese, but why don't we do the same along the US Mexico border?

Do you know that along the China Vietnam border, day workers are allowed to come and work in China and that immigration makes it convenient for them to cross so that they get to work on time everyday? Do you know that traders can cross into China and sell up to 8000 RMB per day duty free?

How does it look to the world when China is opening borders and we are militarizing our borders.

I recently watched a TED Talk by Graham Allison, the author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
That redneck (he calls himself that) said that the China has Belt and Road, so we should have a new Marshall Plan to counter China. It's an interesting talk where Allison presents important charts on China's development. He also calls Xi Jinping the most competent leader in the world today. Unfortunately, most Americans are still stuck in the 1990 or early 2000s when it comes to understanding China.

https://youtu.be/XewnyUJgyA4
Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison

Right now, all we have is fear and rancor against China. We don't have a foreign policy based on principles, peace and development for the world. If we want to preserve our status as #1 we need to act like a big brother who generously takes care of his little brothers around the world.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 24, 2018 - 3:36pm.

I was talking to my friend from Panama where China wants to build projects.

American model: In the past, private US banks lend money to developing countries at high rates (higher than to American consumers). When the poor countries default, there is local currency devaluation and economic crisis. US banks must be paid back else their stock will crash. IMF and World Bank step in to pay back US banks. Debt trap.

China model: China lends money in a vertically integrated model. They build the projects, train the locals and eventually turn over management. When/if the projects don’t generate as much income as anticipated, China extends the payback period and/or they convert debt to equity and operate the properties. China gets a lower or negative ROI in exchange for goodwill and future business opportunities.

China extends Ethiopia railway loan from 10 to 30 years. https://youtu.be/ymyipQMGaHg

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 30, 2018 - 1:16pm.

If you watch fox business news, the USA is winning. The Chinese are really scared. they love to repeat that.

Ok. End of story. Problem solved! USA, Numero Uno!

https://youtu.be/Depd-Wb8Bbo

Submitted by The-Shoveler on December 1, 2018 - 8:59am.

Whatever

Hopefully they can make a deal where everyone wins.

The new NAFT deal looks like a win win.
.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 1, 2018 - 11:49am.

I'd love so see objective metrics for what winning means. Bi lateral trade deficit numbers? Overall trade deficit?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 2, 2018 - 10:46am.

I guess no new tariffs on China.
I guess the Chinese were unimpressed with USMCA which was clearly signed in Buenos Aires as a diplomatic stunt aimed at China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-ame...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 6, 2018 - 1:55am.

Great talk by Yukon Huang. Too bad that Americans are so misinformed.
https://youtu.be/_IfAzGKaSkA

Submitted by The-Shoveler on December 6, 2018 - 8:45am.

On the other hand China is buying USA soy beans again.

Submitted by Myriad on December 6, 2018 - 11:38am.

It's hard to see how there's going to be a deal in 90 days with all the geopolitical and technology issues.
Also, don't travel to China if you're an executive of a US multinational company with any prominence.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 6, 2018 - 1:13pm.

Yukon Huang is the most balanced China expert who has an American point of view. His views are pragmatic and realistic. As he pointed out, there is a structural problem because we have become an exporter of commodities to China so the balance of trade cannot be resolved unless we sell high value added manufactured products.

For services, American companies, if they have more access to China, will invest there. That will be good for corporate profits, but almost nothing for US employment.

On sanctions and the arrest of Huawei executive, the Chinese have long memories and what goes around, comes around. Decades later, when China is the biggest economy, they will have their own sanctions. Trump may hate international institutions because they limit US unilateral options. But without international institutions we won't be able to "handcuff" china when they decide to act unilaterally.

Submitted by Myriad on December 7, 2018 - 12:38pm.

I think the danger here is that the world splits into two trading systems or at least for tech. Unless there's some grand compromise, US companies will be pushed to move supply chains out of China and not purchase any Chinese tech and vice versa for China.
Then the race is on to get various countries into different blocks. Do you want to be a vassal state to China or part of the anti-China group.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 7, 2018 - 1:02pm.

Myriad wrote:
I think the danger here is that the world splits into two trading systems or at least for tech. Unless there's some grand compromise, US companies will be pushed to move supply chains out of China and not purchase any Chinese tech and vice versa for China.
Then the race is on to get various countries into different blocks. Do you want to be a vassal state to China or part of the anti-China group.

Yes that is so true. There is a race to 5G and AI right now.

We are leading in tech now... but China is leading in manufacturing and implementation. The danger for us, as the established power, is that China will build such a large user base that they set the standards — a little like Betamax vs VHS.

I am schocked at how China is able to peel away countries that were American little brothers. The diplomatic symbolism is shocking. How Xi Jinping has been received around the world should worry us. The state visit to Britain including a carriage parade with the queen. The state welcome by the king of Spain and royal heads of Europe. The state welcome in Argentina, Panama and Portugal. Trump is never received that way.

Panama and the Philippines are supposed to be American “colonies”. But the little brothers have grown up and going their own way.

I am worried that China has the manufacturing and implementation capacity that make their infrastructure projects too good to pass up.

I also worry that wherever we diversify our supply chain, those countries such as Vietnam will use the money they earn from us to buy infrastructure and consumer products from China for their hungry to consume populations. Are we able to provide an alternative?

Submitted by Myriad on December 7, 2018 - 2:02pm.

More like the Cold War where there are 2 standards. The play is for India with 1.5B people - it's enough of a counterweight to China. If a dual system exists, then it'll last for 50+ years.
But China is effectively blocked from implementing 5G in countries allied with the US.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on December 7, 2018 - 4:17pm.

IMO 3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.

IMO Their main advantage at that point will be their willingness to pollute their own environment for resource advantage.

If Vietnam is manufacturing stuff for USA why would they not want to manufacture their own stuff for the local consumers?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 8, 2018 - 2:25am.

India will hedge and stay neutral as India has done during the Cold War.

The China issue is very interesting. Big picture wise, it's not about trade at all. It's about containing the rise of China and safeguarding technological superiority, just like China (with silk production), Venice, France and England tried before.

Why do we know it's not about trade? Simple, we know that the total trade deficit will continue to grow no matter what countries we source from.

There's also a little problem with shifting the supply chain. Those contract manufacturers in Vietnam or Myanmar, or Africa are owned by the Chinese.

We didn't worry much about China before because it was a given that:
1) China was not innovative and will never be.
2) China's economic model of state control could only produce inferior products. You know, state planning is bad.
3) China's political model would inevitably lead to inefficiencies, corruption and collapse.

This whole process of demonizing China looks so desperate to me. I think we should be intellectually honest; recognize our ideological mistakes, and formulate honest that are proven to work. We should copy what China has done well. Copying is good and produces better outcomes for humanity.

How do we have honest policies? Well, China is trying to make friends around the world and provide infrastructure and development. Can we not do better than China?

For example, Panama is turning to China for bridges, trains and highways. Panama is in our sphere of influence, politically and geographically. We should give them better deals.

Vietnam is leasing 99 year free trade zone land to Chinese manufacturers. Where are the American manufacturers?

China is building a highway in Montenegro. Why are American civil engineers?

Why is the USA not building a 5G network for Africa?

We are now well past the post colonial stage. The little brothers got education and are thinking for themselves.

We want the world to adopt our economic and political standards? Simple, provide the world American products and services.

Diplomatically, China does very well at treating the little countries are sovereign equals to win them over. China welcomes foreign dignitaries with great honor.

The Panama example again... The President of Panama was honored with a state visit to China. And one year later they are signing business deals. I mean Panamanians are culturally closer to the US and they all look up to Americans. But we treat them like shit, so they broke off relations with Taiwan to recognize China.

And Japan is on our side? Sure they are... but right during Trump's Trade war, Shinzo Abe went on a state visit to China in October, and the 2 countries have the warmest relation in almost a decade.

Other than talk, show me business deals, or diplomatic coups where the US is winning. As Trump was signing USMCA (which might not even get ratified by Congress) in Buenos Aires, China was signing a currency swap agreement, dozens of business deals, a nuclear power plan with Argentina, the G20 host.

As the current top dog, the competition is ours to lose. We're making lots of mistakes and we will pay the price in prosperity. Depressing to watch!

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 8, 2018 - 2:56am.

The-Shoveler wrote:

3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.

I don’t know about the future. But 3D is shit plastic.
You also need to buy the material to have the machine cut it.

I ordered some gold table legs from China for a kitchen counter project. I don’t think a fabricator in USA can make me one. Sure, in rustic wood o steel, but not something polished and shiny.

You can buy from Turkey too but China was cheaper.
https://www.balasagun.com.tr/

The-Shoveler wrote:

IMO Their main advantage at that point will be their willingness to pollute their own environment for resource advantage.

So why even worry? And why go to war, trade or otherwise? They will kill themselves.

The-Shoveler wrote:

If Vietnam is manufacturing stuff for USA why would they not want to manufacture their own stuff for the local consumers?

It will take Vietnam decades to make electric cars, solar panels, high end appliances, 5G equipment, even TVs because TCL is so efficient. They may never be able to build high speed rail or planes.

I don't know if you're following trade... Right now, Vietnam sells food to China and they buy all kinds of plastic consumer stuff from China. The traders cross the border daily to exchange goods. Many small traders on motorbikes and small trucks.

Submitted by phaster on December 8, 2018 - 10:14am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:

3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.

I don’t know about the future. But 3D is shit plastic.

FWIW 3D will also be "metals" and its happening now,... GE Will Laser Print Turboprop Engines (for new cessna certification 2020??)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaldjP0VDNM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBmLHDANDKM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxrWoIPZdkg

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