Chart of US National debt/Federal receipts

User Forum Topic
Submitted by moneymaker on May 26, 2015 - 8:18pm

In 1920 the ratio was 4.3 just before a big drop in the market, right now it is 5.9! Still looking for a good chart of this.

Submitted by svelte on May 26, 2015 - 9:01pm.

Well, that's not far off from asking about the size of the deficit.

Deficit by Pres 1946-2013

Submitted by svelte on May 26, 2015 - 9:19pm.

...maybe this is closer...2013 Debt to Revenue

Submitted by moneymaker on May 27, 2015 - 8:49pm.

Seems everybody wants to compare the National debt to GDP, what good does that do. Think that when comparing it to something that something should be relevant, like the ability to pay it back which would probably be based on federal receipts and not GDP. GDP is a bigger number which makes the National debt seem smaller.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 28, 2015 - 11:53am.

Money maker, comparing debt to gdp makes perfect sense.

The federal debt will never be paid off because that represents savings to people who own the debt. The federal debt is an investment vehicle.

If you could live forever, you would never pay off your debts either. You would keep on rolling over your debt and increase it as your income increases. You would have unending increases in standard of living.

Submitted by harvey on May 28, 2015 - 1:07pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
If you could live forever, you would never pay off your debts either. You would keep on rolling over your debt and increase it as your income increases. You would have unending increases in standard of living.

Good points.

A common misconception about government debt is that it eventually must be paid off down to zero. This is not true.

The size of the debt is irrelevant. The only parameter that matters is the cost of the debt. And cost is relative to many things.

Submitted by livinincali on May 29, 2015 - 6:49am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Money maker, comparing debt to gdp makes perfect sense.

The federal debt will never be paid off because that represents savings to people who own the debt. The federal debt is an investment vehicle.

If you could live forever, you would never pay off your debts either. You would keep on rolling over your debt and increase it as your income increases. You would have unending increases in standard of living.

Yeah right up until the interest rates rise and the cost of rolling the debt exceeds your income. Opps there goes your standard of living and most of what you have gets liquidated. Brilliant plan it's working out so well for countries like Greece and the rest of the PIIGS. Do you guys think these things through before you say them?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 29, 2015 - 7:22am.

Because Greece

1) Does not have the resources to be independent economically.

2) Cannot print it's own money.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 29, 2015 - 8:31am.

Greece is more like state and local government in USA.

Livin, i do worry about the move up housing maket once interest rates rise. But maybe low rates is the new normal for decades to come

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 29, 2015 - 8:36am.

Well it also does not help that it is very corrupt.

Submitted by moneymaker on May 29, 2015 - 10:14am.

It's kinda like the debt to income ratio the banks use for home loans. What does it matter that I make x dollars, if I only take home .5x dollars then that is what I have to pay the mortgage with. Of course using x instead of .5x works in everyone's favor so nobody rocks the boat. I guess you could say nobody ever pays off their home either they just move up and buy a bigger one or take out a second but the fact is there are many homes that are paid off.

Submitted by livinincali on May 29, 2015 - 11:14am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Because Greece
1) Does not have the resources to be independent economically.

Of course it does. Not at their current standard of living but at some lower standard of living Greece can certainly support itself by trading tourism for whatever goods it can afford. It's people won't like the fact that they can't retire at 60 anymore, but they'll survive, just like the rest of countries that have gone bankrupt over the years.

The-Shoveler wrote:

2) Cannot print it's own money.

Of course they can. If they leave the Euro they most certainly will be printing up dracmas. Their currency won't be worth anything close to a Euro and it's people will take a big haircut to their savings and standard of living, but that's going to happen one way or another anyways.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 29, 2015 - 11:58am.

livinincali wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Because Greece
1) Does not have the resources to be independent economically.

Of course it does. Not at their current standard of living but at some lower standard of living Greece can certainly support itself by trading tourism for whatever goods it can afford. It's people won't like the fact that they can't retire at 60 anymore, but they'll survive, just like the rest of countries that have gone bankrupt over the years.

But we can do it without much change in standard of living.

Submitted by SD Realtor on May 29, 2015 - 12:54pm.

I agree with cali's point that if the treasury yields rise dramatically we are all pretty much screwed and the standard of living will change.

The shell game with the yields will go on for years maybe decades until someone pulls the plug. It will happen some day/year/decade.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 29, 2015 - 2:26pm.

Was just talking about std. Of living with someone. Life isthe same regardless of what he makes. Basically all the money's spent, it's just slightly nicer or more stuff but life itself seems about the same. Not more or less comfortable...not appreciably better stuff.... I don't see any actual difference in my life making 50k or 125k. It feels the exact same. I have a different adress, newer car...but it doesnt feel better...Std. Of living changes , to matter, needs to involve some pain or appreciable difference in Daily reality. Without that it's all the same. The same standard of living.

I bet the Greeks will be roasting goats and drinking wine and having sex about the same regardless. Dance and fight and laugh the same.

Maybe none of this crap really matters unless you're making nothing. In which case you're s rewed anyway.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 29, 2015 - 3:41pm.

I'm sure the Greeks are still having sex just the same or maybe more.

However, I think in today's world where we are bombarded with ratings, we feel anxious not being near the top.
I worry about not being near the top all the time. That started in elementary school. I'm a lot easier going now but it's always a concern.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 29, 2015 - 3:57pm.

The top of what?

It's important to me to have frequent awesome poops. I do. I bet my poops are in the top 10 perc. Of the world. I use the Bristol Scale to judge my poo.i can run a fast mile and do my Krav maga. I love my kids as much as,anyone in the world loves their kids. I sleep super well, probably again in top 10 perc worldwide.

The things,that matter are not getting rated.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 29, 2015 - 3:58pm.

https://www.gutsense.org/constipation/no...

Nothing is better in this world than a good healthy dump.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 29, 2015 - 4:14pm.

One example to relate to real estate. When i go into a nasty dirty house, I fell like I'm better off. They may have better sex or better love, but don't see any of that. I just see a not very appealing house. I kinda pity the people living there.

In Greece people live in 1/2 constructed houses. They build a little over time.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 29, 2015 - 5:57pm.

But fih, how are your bowel movrments?
Do you sleep deeply?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 30, 2015 - 5:49am.

My bowel movement are perfect because I eat lots of fruit and veggies.

I sleep deeply especially after some good physical exercise during the day. I sleep too much 8 hours a day. I wish I didn't need to that much.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 30, 2015 - 5:58am.

SD Realtor wrote:
I agree with cali's point that if the treasury yields rise dramatically we are all pretty much screwed and the standard of living will change.

The shell game with the yields will go on for years maybe decades until someone pulls the plug. It will happen some day/year/decade.

All good things must eventually end.
Then we will reset with a new currency/technology.

People like to talk about the federal debt by warning of calamity and currency collapse.
If interests do rise suddenly, we will have plenty of warning signs. First, households will stop moving up because they would no longer be able to rollover their mortgages.

The data right now is not predicting dire consequences. Don't people say to trust the markets because all information is already priced in?

Submitted by Jazzman on May 30, 2015 - 3:25pm.

moneymaker wrote:
Seems everybody wants to compare the National debt to GDP, what good does that do. Think that when comparing it to something that something should be relevant, like the ability to pay it back which would probably be based on federal receipts and not GDP. GDP is a bigger number which makes the National debt seem smaller.

It does seem odd, but I guess it's more scary.

Submitted by Jazzman on May 30, 2015 - 3:38pm.

harvey wrote:
FlyerInHi wrote:
If you could live forever, you would never pay off your debts either. You would keep on rolling over your debt and increase it as your income increases. You would have unending increases in standard of living.

Good points.

A common misconception about government debt is that it eventually must be paid off down to zero. This is not true.

The size of the debt is irrelevant. The only parameter that matters is the cost of the debt. And cost is relative to many things.

I don't think it is irrelevant. How can it be since it is part of the equation. Moreover, since the cost to service it is variable that would seem to make a strong case to keep debt to manageable levels.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 30, 2015 - 4:24pm.

The proportional debt to gdp is relevant. The nominal dollar number is meaningless. It's just a number.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 30, 2015 - 5:55pm.

If we all stopped eating meat I think everything would be ok. Maybe it's the planet that fails before our consumption system.

Submitted by gzz on May 30, 2015 - 6:11pm.

I think rates in the USA will be be flat to declining for a long time. Short term rates are negative in most of the developed world, and long term rates are now negative in Switzerland and getting close to negative in most of northern europe.

The 2.8% you get from the US 30 year is just about the highest in the developed world.

Switzerland is just nuts though. Deflation of more than 1% in 2015, and the central bank saying deflation will continue for at least another two years. Bank deposits denominated in Swiss Franc pay -1.25%.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.