Brexit ripple

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Submitted by urbanrealtor on June 26, 2016 - 11:21am

Posting this as OT because I think it reaches into a lot of topics.

The near-to-medium term effects as I see them:

1: UK lowered credit rating.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-r...

2: New Scottish referendum on separation.
I give the odds of this resulting in separation like 85%.
The UK's standing and relevance in the EU was a large component of the narrow failure of the last independence bid. That is now gone and Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eur...

3: Northern Ireland to consider going its own way.
This might mean EU membership on its own terms or it might mean reunification with the Republic (meaning reactionary gummies succeeded in doing in a day what hundreds of years of struggle failed to do) or it might mean a new version of the UK (weirdly without England). It also might just mean more violence... its been a while...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

4: There will be reconsideration of the vote by the electorate.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/...

Those are just the agreed upon effects.

Going a couple ripples out, I think this means something more profound for the UK.

either

A: They are weakened because they cease to exist in their current form. The likelihood of either NI and/or Scotland bailing out is probably above 90%.

or

B: They are weakened because they decide that staying in the EU is better and now they are negotiating (at lease initially) as supplicants.

What am I missing here?

Anybody have any data/projection driven input?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 26, 2016 - 4:17pm.

Empire will end up little England.

Submitted by spdrun on June 26, 2016 - 10:41pm.

I read that as "Brexit nipple", then thanked Gerd that the Queen's areola was not pictured in this thread.

Submitted by moneymaker on June 27, 2016 - 9:39am.

Why does the prime minister have to resign. That part I don't get,seems like he should stay when they need him the most.

Submitted by svelte on June 29, 2016 - 6:37am.

Brexit Ripple sounds like something the British will have to drink to get them through the tough times ahead.

Submitted by livinincali on June 29, 2016 - 8:29am.

moneymaker wrote:
Why does the prime minister have to resign. That part I don't get,seems like he should stay when they need him the most.

He doesn't have to resign but he felt it was the thing to do. I suppose one could view it as a vote of no confidence since he campaigned hard for the remain vote. At a minimum he didn't want to lead the UK though the exit process. In some respects it seems like British politicians respect the will of the people more so than the US politicians, but that's just IMO.

Submitted by livinincali on June 29, 2016 - 8:40am.

Quote:

2: New Scottish referendum on separation.
I give the odds of this resulting in separation like 85%.
The UK's standing and relevance in the EU was a large component of the narrow failure of the last independence bid. That is now gone and Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eur...

The EU has said Scotland cannot remain a member of the EU even if they vote to leave the UK.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...

Quote:

The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves.
The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'.
But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote.

The problem is that even if Scotland applies to be a member after it splits from UK the EU probably wouldn't let them in because Scotland's budget deficit looks something similar to Greece. Scotland is basically a welfare state that England has been supporting.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 30, 2016 - 4:45pm.

livinincali wrote:

The problem is that even if Scotland applies to be a member after it splits from UK the EU probably wouldn't let them in because Scotland's budget deficit looks something similar to Greece. Scotland is basically a welfare state that England has been supporting.

There is disagreement over whether Scotland, with its oil wealth, wouldn't be better off independent.

The people who are secessionist and conservative believe that we will have eventual hyperinflation, currency debasement, skyrocketing oil prices. So why would they not push ahead with secession from the UK?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 30, 2016 - 9:22pm.

OMG, did you see some of the people interviewed by BBC? They speak English that nobody understands.

http://youtu.be/fNmPyXtaa1c

Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 1, 2016 - 4:20pm.

This is the London School of Economics paper on the options outside of the EU written before the vote. It addresses the Norway model and the Switzerland model.

It's interesting that the conservative Brexit politicians never put a path forward. Clearly they didn't expect their own side to win.

We know however that Brexit voters mostly want limits to immigration and a more regulated labor market. It's really hard to see how that can be delivered while protecting Britain's financial services industry. Brexit voters are not Londoners who benefit from financial services anyway so they may wish to sacrifice the goose that lays the golden eggs.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexi...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on January 14, 2019 - 5:43pm.

The Brexit vote is coming up. Hard to see how London can remain the financial capital of Europe and arguably the World. The Torries brought it upon themselves and they’ll make Britain poorer.

Submitted by gzz on January 15, 2019 - 10:41am.

Flyer, they are near the Scottish border. I guessed that before looking up the location.

I enjoy watching British TV so I am used to most accents, but the working class Northern and Scottish accents are the hardest. The redhead cook on Downton Abbey has the hardest accent and is somewhat similar.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 9, 2019 - 1:38pm.

gzz wrote:
Flyer, they are near the Scottish border. I guessed that before looking up the location.

I enjoy watching British TV so I am used to most accents, but the working class Northern and Scottish accents are the hardest. The redhead cook on Downton Abbey has the hardest accent and is somewhat similar.

I also enjoy British TV. Very interesting how a small place like Britain has so many accents. I’m pretty good at languages and I can speak RP if I want. I had a posh teacher from London.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 9, 2019 - 1:49pm.

Brexit is coming up. It’s interesting how right wing nationalism led to Brexit and may lead to the breakup of the UK. Nationalist movements are gaining strength in Scotland and Wales.

American right wingers supported Brexit and the result is that we have a weaker ally in Europe. Northern Ireland will not want to be separated from their Irish brothers, and Irish Americans will support the reunification of Ireland, in contradiction to the interests of London.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 15, 2019 - 2:37pm.

There is panic and pandemonium in Britain as Brexit approaches.

The conservatives created Brexit and can’t even get their own majority to vote for it. So now they claim that labor should help them get a deal.

It’s like the wall, Trump had 2 years and could not get the Republican majority to fund his wall. So now he blames Democrats. Totally irrational and dishonest.

I love it that Ireland, the former British colony now has the UK by the balls. And Ireland now has higher per capita GDP.

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