Benford's Law and voter fraud

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdduuuude on November 7, 2020 - 11:57am

So, during quarantine I watched an episode of a show called Connected on Netflix and learned, for the first time, about Benford's law. It is an extraordinary bit of math and very intriguing. Also, after taking so many math classes, it was pretty cool to learn something new at the ripe old age of 50-something.

Anyway - google Benford's law and you will learn that the distribution of the first digits of any set of counted numbers follow a certain pattern - that counted numbers are far more likely to start with a 1 than a 9. Yes, it sounds wrong. But it is true. And it is a law, not a theory.

Election results are counted numbers so Benford's law can be used to determine if the numbers have been manipulated artificially. I was looking to see if I could get election data in tabular form to do the analysis, and then found this:

https://github.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords

It's just numbers but to me tells a significant story.

Here is someone who took the graphs and added some commentary:
https://gnews.org/534248/

If the numbers are right and the analysis is correct, I consider this to be proof positive that there was some manipulation of the vote counts. I wonder if it will come to light at all.

Submitted by sdduuuude on November 7, 2020 - 1:11pm.

From the "Biden Wins" thread:

svelte wrote:
Because, you'd think that if they had fed fake ballots through the system, that would have conformed to Benford's Law and ended up with a 1 in the first digit most of the time.

No, that is not correct. When you feed a random number of fake ballots into the system, it makes it a system that does not conform to Benford's Law.

Benford's Law applies to numbers that are counted or accumulated.

The law works because as you count, when you get to a section of numbers beginning with "1" you need a 100% increase to move on to a set of numbers beginning with the number 2. But, when you get to a section of numbers beginning with "9" you only need an 11% increase.

Random numbers don't have this problem. They can land anywhere. So, if a random number is introduced into the system, the numbers can fall anywhere. You end up with a mix of a Benford set of numbers and random numbers.

Benford's Law isn't really ever violated but if you are looking at a system you would expect to follow the law and it doesn't, it means the system is not what you think it is.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 7, 2020 - 3:02pm.

Nooope.

As explained in the fun "covid was planned" post, this site is not going to be a conduit for misguided conspiracy theories.

First of all, I fixed this part for you:

"Here is someone a lunatic who took the graphs and added some commentary: https://gnews.org/534248/"

(A quick browsing of that website will show that my version is more accurate).

Second, it took me 5 seconds on google to find an academic paper debunking the whole idea of using Benford's law to find election fraud. You could have easily found it yourself before posting this misguided rumor here.

As I said on the other thread, there are unfortunately many places on the internet to spread misinformation. This site is not going to be one of them. Thread closed.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.