Back to the Office for Tech Workers

User Forum Topic
Submitted by deadzone on February 23, 2022 - 2:35pm

Covid is over now for all intents and purposes. Amazon announced return to the office (3 days a week) and no longer requiring vaccine.

You knew this was coming, other large tech companies will follow suite. This change in addition to tech stocks getting absolutely hammered in the stock market this year will pretty much put an end to the "Bay area tech worker moving to ___ for remote work".

Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. Anybody flipping houses now is going to get rammed hard. I think Zillow was wise to get out of that business when they did.

Submitted by deadzone on March 8, 2022 - 3:03pm.

Absolutely for the lay person they should only purchase bars or coins. Gold in jewelry form only makes sense if you have retail jewelry to off load them.

I have family in the jewelry business so bought a lot of gold jewelry through them during the "great recession" and honestly got most of it at far less than the $900-1000 spot price as there were a lot of desperate people hawking their gold in that period.

Some of the stuff I melted down to bars, but the nicer stuff I kept intact as it can be sold easily for double the spot gold price in jewelry form.

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 3:23pm.

deadzone wrote:
Absolutely for the lay person they should only purchase bars or coins. Gold in jewelry form only makes sense if you have retail jewelry to off load them.

I have family in the jewelry business so bought a lot of gold jewelry through them during the "great recession" and honestly got most of it at far less than the $900-1000 spot price as there were a lot of desperate people hawking their gold in that period.

Some of the stuff I melted down to bars, but the nicer stuff I kept intact as it can be sold easily for double the spot gold price in jewelry form.

Well, did you pay sales tax for that, or did you do that (illegally) under the table :)

Also, come on man.. Before talking about how well gold investment worked out for you...It would have been more appropriate to first disclose that basically you have family in the business, and that your gold investment gain was primarily only from the special relationships you have with your family and not so much your investment dexterity that others have specifically for gold...because without that special advantage, you would not have been able to reproduce those gains that you specifically mentioned for gold, like any other investment asset class for which you do not have any sort of special advantage.......It's no different than flyer who keeps claiming how much money and how easy it was for him make money in real estate in san diego, when the bulk of his wealth was inherited... just saying... Not there there is anything wrong with having a special advantage... But let's at least be upfront and honest about it that that was the primary enabler, and not financial dexterity. Because let's not mislead others who are trying to build their own wealth right now from the start... that these "easy" ways of making money for you with gold (and in real estate, for flyer's case) are reproducible by others who don't have those "special tools"

Afterall, the easiest way to make $1million is... to start out with $999,999

Also, you seemed to have taken advantage of unfortunate people that had no money and had to sell gold at firesale prices, some of them possibly passed down to them from their relatives.... I believe in a few threads back, you mentioned something about unaffordable housing and rent and how landlords jacking up rent was selfish and self centered....How are these two situations any different, besides, you being the one subject to the possibility of a landlord jacking up rent prices?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 8, 2022 - 4:02pm.

Fraudzone

Submitted by deadzone on March 8, 2022 - 4:57pm.

Wow you guys are really going mental here, sorry to even bother sharing my info on gold.
- First, if I had used my money to purchase the ETF GLD in 2009, it would be up over 100%
- Second I could have easily purchased gold bullion off the street for the market price. In which case my investment would have gone up over 100%. My "family advantage" only netted an additional 20% profit or so.
- Third, what kind of moron are you to suggest it is immoral or unethical to purchase gold off the "unfortunate"? They need money, I have money and pay competitive price. Do you think pawnshops are immoral too? Get the fuck out of here what that take.
- Bottom line, I made a shit load of money taking risk and shorting the housing market. I used some of that new found cash to purchase gold. I would (and will) do it all over again.

Also, I have never once said landlords were selfish for raising rents. I have always been in favor of free market capitalism. What I said is it is selfish to root for the Fed to keep money printing knowing that it is absolutely fucking over the majority of the population financially, just because it benefits your personal interests. The Federal Reserve blowing ginormous financial bubbles, encouraging risky speculation, and then the government bailing out banks and other failing companies when that bubble inevitably pops, is what I despise. That is the opposite of free market.

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 6:19pm.

deadzone wrote:
Wow you guys are really going mental here, sorry to even bother sharing my info on gold.
- First, if I had used my money to purchase the ETF GLD in 2009, it would be up over 100%
- Second I could have easily purchased gold bullion off the street for the market price. In which case my investment would have gone up over 100%. My "family advantage" only netted an additional 20% profit or so.
- Third, what kind of moron are you to suggest it is immoral or unethical to purchase gold off the "unfortunate"? They need money, I have money and pay competitive price. Do you think pawnshops are immoral too? Get the fuck out of here what that take.
- Bottom line, I made a shit load of money taking risk and shorting the housing market. I used some of that new found cash to purchase gold. I would (and will) do it all over again.

Also, I have never once said landlords were selfish for raising rents. I have always been in favor of free market capitalism. What I said is it is selfish to root for the Fed to keep money printing knowing that it is absolutely fucking over the majority of the population financially, just because it benefits your personal interests. The Federal Reserve blowing ginormous financial bubbles, encouraging risky speculation, and then the government bailing out banks and other failing companies when that bubble inevitably pops, is what I despise. That is the opposite of free market.

No, we're not going mental here. We're just trying to follow your train of thought on this thread. It first started off about how return to work is somehow going to affect housing prices in san diego, despite folks stating that (1) not everyone is going back to the office (2) there's high tech job expansion here and (3) there's some people that moved here for other reasons. And then we followed you down the discussion about how housing prices are insane and that people will be in trouble, despite a good portion of purchases were done in the 2009/10 timeframe with low fixed rate mortgages and then some even refinanced to a 30year 3% or lower, and there's no incentive for them to force sell, considering their payments are way lower than people are paying for rent, and also that was an opportunity of a lifetime..... Then you took us to the discussion about how the stock market is going to crash, and while we are in the middle of a correction, we haven't returned back to 2019 levels (yet) at least...And then you mentioned something about day trading assuming we day trade/speculate and are doing so bigly and losing our shorts, despite contrary to your assumptions that most of us do not day trade or participate in speculation in a bigly way and that most of us do boring style DRIP investment over 15-20+years and track pretty much with the 4% rule of compounding, and that while we might speculate here and there, it's not really material enough to affect the overall financial situation....Then on the other thread where you offered financial advice, we're trying to follow the logic that you mentioned it's a bad time to invest and that you took a short position in some stock...which we mentioned really isn't investing, it's speculating/gambling and a lot more risking than anyone else who's doing a DRIP style investment...Somehow, you took us down the path about how Gold is a great investment since 2009, where you mentioned that the bulk of your gold purchase was below $1000 in 2009. But we showed you that gold really hasn't done that well relative to everything else, because it went as high as $2100 before coming back down to the $1300/1400 only recently have we seen it cross $2100 mainly due to the war and uncertainty of ukraine, and I said that I like gold because it's pretty and maybe I'll melt something down and coat a gun. But then you said how retail gold jewelry is a great investment. I said, it wasn't because most jewelry these day is 14k and worth less than what retail price people pay. Then you indicated that gold jewelry is a good investment. I refuted that because gold jewelry typically is priced way above the price of the gold content and retail purchases also include a 8% sales tax, unlike bullion...Then you indicated you did the bulk of your gold purchases by buying gold jewelry from a family jewelry store who bought gold from desperate people that needed money and sold off their family jewelry and told us you bought some of that desperately sold jewelry well below spot value...something that I pointed out really isn't a investment that anyone could really do that doesn't have privileged status to a jewelry store and/or pawn shop, no different that Flyer who has privileged inherited money to buy homes in San Diego and make money "easily"....And I just wonder why you felt it was immoral for landlords to charge tenants high rent prices, while it was not immmoral for a jewelry store to take advantage of someone desperate and not give a fair market value for the jewelry they are trying to sell...And then you said we are going mental, when we're really just trying to follow your train of thought on investment/speculation....

I might have missed something here and there, but that's the summary of where you took our discussion on both threads...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 8, 2022 - 6:31pm.

Coronita wrote:
Rare vintage wine makes better investments than most consumer grade jewelry BTW. At least you know what you are getting. Well sort of... People in asian pay $100-$150 for empty vintage wine bottles, because they take them and make fake wine and sell it over there with the same label. I'm not kidding.

Not far off. Just got some wine delivered. Cost for 6 bottles with tax and shipping is $783. Dropping it off to someone tomorrow who’s paying me $1900. That means the other 6 I bought are free (though I may sell down the road if my tastes change for even more) and I pocket a $340 profit. All the while our pal Chumlee here buys old watches on Craig’s list

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 6:32pm.

I just ordered 10 5 quart jugs of oil to my stock. I have 5 jugs left at home. Should be able to do oil changes for 2.5 years on the cars until the energy mess is straightened out or a car dies and I replace it with something electric

also bought about 50 oil filters. Each costs roughly $1 more than last year.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 8, 2022 - 6:32pm.

I’ll drink to that

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 6:43pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
I’ll drink to that

I tried drinking the oil, it didn't taste so good. You know it's too bad I need to get 3 different oil grades otherwise I'd just buy a big ole 55 gallon drum of oil, since it would take up less space.

German cars take 5w40 euro spec
Old Japanese cars take 5w30
New japanese cars take 0w20

Can't mix and match.... I guess I could move all Japanese cars to 5w20 but I like to stick with the recommended oil weight from the manufacturer....

Too bad..

Submitted by deadzone on March 8, 2022 - 6:50pm.

Seriously FLU you have some issues man. All of your responses are so long winded, I mean you just wrote more characters in this response than I have cumulatively in this entire thread. How on earth do you manage people in a professional environment with such poor writing skills?

You really need to learn how to paraphrase. I'll summarize for you since you have reading comprehension issues:

There are several flashing red signs that the bubble is about to burst. I've provided several examples: Tech stocks getting creamed, Rising interest rates, end of covid, return to office, high inflation, all of the public RE companies getting ass hammered (zillow, Redfin, open), etc. etc.

I then said under these conditions it might not be wise to throw cash into the stock market at this moment. I also pointed out that money can be made in a down market, although not specifically advising anyone to do so. I also pointed out that my gold investments are going well. Whether I originally bought them at market price or via professional discount is irrelevant.

In response, all I hear from you clowns is "Opportunity of a lifetime". You guys really don't have any more useful advice to offer other than to go back in a time machine to 2012 and buy real estate?

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 7:12pm.

deadzone wrote:
Seriously FLU you have some issues man. All of your responses are so long winded, I mean you just wrote more characters in this response than I have cumulatively in this entire thread. How on earth do you manage people in a professional environment with such poor writing skills?

You really need to learn how to paraphrase. I'll summarize for you since you have reading comprehension issues:

There are several flashing red signs that the bubble is about to burst. I've provided several examples: Tech stocks getting creamed, Rising interest rates, end of covid, return to office, high inflation, all of the public RE companies getting ass hammered (zillow, Redfin, open), etc. etc.

I then said under these conditions it might not be wise to throw cash into the stock market at this moment. I also pointed out that money can be made in a down market, although not specifically advising anyone to do so. I also pointed out that my gold investments are going well. Whether I originally bought them at market price or via professional discount is irrelevant.

In response, all I hear from you clowns is "Opportunity of a lifetime". You guys really don't have any more useful advice to offer other than to go back in a time machine to 2012 and buy real estate?

I'm in tech, I don't need to have professional writing skills. I just need to send memes.

And yahoo founder jerry yang wrote emails completely in lower case with no punctuation. I think he made a fortunate... how did you do during the same time?

Besides this is a blog. I just like to write long ass responses to weird ass speculation.....

I'm doing fine professionally, thanks for asking. I guess I don't work in such an anal retentive industry....sorry if you do.

My reading comprehension is just fine. I'm just going where your rambling is going...

Real estate in 2009 was an opportunity of a lifetime here in SD. No doubt about it. Buying gold jewelry from broke people probably isn't an opportunity of a lifetime since Americans probably over extend all the time...but ..... The magnitude of people selling off their jewelry out of desperation back in 2009 might have been an opportunity of a lifetime. Not my cup of tea to make money, but nothing wrong with it...I prefer higher rent prices that track inflation once someone moves out...

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 7:41pm.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...

Ouch.... Got to hurt....

Wealthy Bid Big to Win Homes in Supply-Strapped U.S. Markets

The impatient and moneyed, trying to get ahead of expected increases in U.S. mortgage rates, are doing what it takes to win bidding wars for homes. That means going big.

This year through mid-February, 5,897 homes sold for at least $100,000 above the asking price, up from 2,241 a year earlier, according to a report by Redfin Corp. In the San Jose, California, metro area, 46% of sale prices reached that threshold, a jump from 20%.

San Jose, CA 46%
San Francisco, CA 40
Oakland, CA 30
Seattle, WA 17
Anaheim, CA 15
Los Angeles, CA 11
San Diego, CA 11
Boston, MA 5
Denver, CO 3
Newark, NJ 3

Submitted by deadzone on March 8, 2022 - 8:00pm.

Look, I'm not rambling. I was very clear and concise about the mounting evidence that the 12 year long bubble is finally bursting.

You are the one rambling. And SDR with his endless reminders of missed opportunities is not constructive and has no relevance to the present day situation.

I am in no way bragging about the success of my gold, just pointing out that it made sense at the time (to me) that that's where I should focus my investing and that it hasn't been a bad investment. Had I taken all my money and dumped it in RE at that time would I be more wealthy today, hell yes. But on that same token, if I dumped all my money in the Stock market in 2009-2010 I would be so wealthy right now that the current prices of RE would be negligible. But I didn't do that so let's move on and deal with the present situation shall we?

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 8:05pm.

deadzone wrote:
Look, I'm not rambling. I was very clear and concise about the mounting evidence that the 12 year long bubble is finally bursting.

You are the one rambling. And SDR with his endless reminders of missed opportunities is not constructive and has no relevance to the present day situation.

I am in no way bragging about the success of my gold, just pointing out that it made sense at the time (to me) that that's where I should focus my investing and that it hasn't been a bad investment. Had I taken all my money and dumped it in RE at that time would I be more wealthy today, hell yes. But on that same token, if I dumped all my money in the Stock market in 2009-2010 I would be so wealthy right now that the current prices of RE would be negligible. But I didn't do that so let's move on and deal with the present situation shall we?

Of course you are rambling. You started this thread as rambling

dz rambling wrote:

Covid is over now for all intents and purposes. Amazon announced return to the office (3 days a week) and no longer requiring vaccine.

You knew this was coming, other large tech companies will follow suite. This change in addition to tech stocks getting absolutely hammered in the stock market this year will pretty much put an end to the "Bay area tech worker moving to ___ for remote work".

Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. Anybody flipping houses now is going to get rammed hard. I think Zillow was wise to get out of that business when they did.

That's rambling...Not that there is anything wrong with rambling. We don't mind people rambling. But you seem to, except your own.

I'm just keeping this thread on page 1, so we all remember.

Submitted by deadzone on March 8, 2022 - 8:06pm.

Okay, I guess any topic that you don't like or agree with is rambling. Got it.

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 8:32pm.

deadzone wrote:
Okay, I guess any topic that you don't like or agree with is rambling. Got it.

Lol, I neither dislike or like the topic. But looking at the initial post, you took 1 news article about 1 big tech company and generalized that to a specific local market condition without much basis or facts. And when multiple people pointed out more credible information to the contrary, you really didn't like that and glossed over all those other indicators to the contrary.

For every company large or mid-size that is going back hybrid, there's several others that are remote. But regardless of remote or not, it's not only contributing factor for why more people are living here. All the data also indicate job growth in biotech and life sciences. We posted numerous of credible articles about this both from real estate companies that show commercial RE demand, and also job stats from tech articles and a bunch of other sources...more than any sort of "fact/data" you posted to support your opinions....All these articles which you glossed over again and either ignored or denied are factual..and continued to ramble your opinion that you posted in the beginning of this thread...You brought no new data, besides 1 or 2 or 3 new articles that talk about 1 specific employer...And you conveniently glossed over the article about 3 Roots and 14000 applicants on a waitlist for 200 homes....You also gloss over that the inventory in Mira Mesa is essentially close to 0, despite large a population Mira Mesa is serving.

So it's not that we don't like what you are saying, but what you are saying doesn't make sense.

Quote:

You are the one rambling. And SDR with his endless reminders of missed opportunities is not constructive and has no relevance to the present day situation.

I don't deny I am not rambling, because that's sort of what this thread is.

Quote:

I am in no way bragging about the success of my gold, just pointing out that it made sense at the time (to me) that that's where I should focus my investing and that it hasn't been a bad investment.

No one said you are bragging about your gold investments. But what you initially said about gold investment made no sense without the additional context that your investment into retail jewelry was primarily achieved by off market activity with a family business, in which you had access to below market valuation for jewelry that is generally not available to anyone else. There's nothing wrong with that at all, but it's not something that can be reproducible by your average joe, and from your initial post about gold, it was misleading for others to think that they can simply "invest" in cosmetic 14k jewelry and come out ahead.

Quote:

Had I taken all my money and dumped it in RE at that time would I be more wealthy today, hell yes. But on that same token, if I dumped all my money in the Stock market in 2009-2010 I would be so wealthy right now that the current prices of RE would be negligible.

But that's also the point i was trying to make. You didn't need to dump all your money into the stock market to come out ahead. That's the point of DRIP investment. If you do a little over the course of several years, you wouldn't need to be market timing to reap some gains... nor would you feel a need to short sell something to try to speculate a gain. Both much higher risk than DRIP.

Submitted by deadzone on March 9, 2022 - 12:42am.

A lot of big companies, Silicon Valley and otherwise, have announced going back to the office 3 days a week starting in April. I just used Amazon as a prime example (no pun intended), not generalizing.

I've heard from piggington sources, other RE blogs and all over mainstream media that high paid FAANG type workers moving to San Diego to remote work were a major factor in house price run-up in San Diego. (Personally I believe it was a minor factor at best) Now that Covid is over and many (not all) workers will be returning to office in the near future, common sense says that trend will regress at least to some degree.

You guys are so focused on the job growth in San Diego as the reason everyone is going to continue moving here and driving up prices (wait, I thought it was the weather and lifestyle?).

I worked in the tech industry during the .com bubble and I am seeing so many similarities that it is scary. What happened to all of those .com era startups, many in San Diego? I know a great many that evaporated. If the stock market collapses like in 2000 (and currently it appears well on its way), a lot of jobs will be lost. And with current housing and rent prices, a lot of folks will be leaving San Diego.

Submitted by flyer on March 9, 2022 - 2:15am.

And in other real estate news--don't think this will affect any of us. Personally, we haven't been flipping for awhile, so I'm not concerned--not the core of our business. There are lots of things going on in the world that could have an impact on real estate, but I don't think this will move the needle much, if at all.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — A state law maker from San Diego says short-term investors are contributing to the housing crisis. Now he’s introduced a Bill he says will give average people a chance to own a home again.

Flipping houses is nothing new. You purchase a property, make necessary changes and then sell it for a profit.

But Assembly member Chris Ward, from the 78th District, says that process is hurting the housing market and keeping average people from buying a home.

The California Housing Speculation Act or Assembly Bill 1771, is designed to change real estate tax policy and discourage some investors from quickly reselling properties like single family homes.

“It would be an additional income tax on the profit gain from a sale that occurred within three years of the previous sale,” said Ward.

Ward is proposing an additional 25% tax on the gain from the sale beginning January 1, 2023.

He says research shows U.S. investors bought a record $63.6 billion worth of homes by late last year. Nearly three-quarters of that was single family homes, the highest level it’s ever been.

“But we’ve also seen this influx of short-term investors trying to get into the market, outbid San Diegans and Californians with all-cash offers, and drive the prices up for everyone,” Ward said.

Ward says California does have a housing supply deficit, but profits continue to grow by 26% each year, which isn’t sustainable.

University of San Diego real estate professor Norm Miller says the Bill may help, but California’s tax laws are still more favorable to investors.

“But if you’re an investor, an institutional buyer, not only do you get unlimited tax right offs from the mortgage interest and the property taxes, you’ll also get depreciation, which is something an owner does not get on their own personal residence,” Miller said.

“So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 8:14am.

Oh boy... where do I even start with this..

deadzone wrote:
A lot of big companies, Silicon Valley and otherwise, have announced going back to the office 3 days a week starting in April. I just used Amazon as a prime example (no pun intended), not generalizing.

I've heard from piggington sources, other RE blogs and all over mainstream media that high paid FAANG type workers moving to San Diego to remote work were a major factor in house price run-up in San Diego. (Personally I believe it was a minor factor at best) Now that Covid is over and many (not all) workers will be returning to office in the near future, common sense says that trend will regress at least to some degree.

Ok, specifically with people that relocated.. Do you think that people who did relocate here from higher cost areas, would simply move here, make one of the most important financial decisions in their life (buy a house), and move their entire family down here, just on a whim, without any sort of long term plan or assurance from their current employer that their remote arrangement could continue....That is, they didn't arrange for one possible cases:

1: they found a new job here, and quit their old job
2: they are important enough to their current company and ensured that 2-3 years from now that covid is better, they wouldn't have to relocate back to the company
3: they work for a company with satellite offices down here such that if they ever had to return to an office, even it was for a few days in the week, they could do so by returning to a satellite office down here
4: they work for a company that requires then to show up every so often (monthly, every 3 weeks, etc), and are reasonably reachable by car or train etc.

There's plenty of people I know that fall into each of those categories above, including my tenants. SDR's neighbors also falls into many of those categories.

If you are correct (which I highly doubt since most normal people and normal families actually put a lot of things into important decisions like buying a house and raising a family before relocating everyone), we should soon see people moving back to where they have to work now and a desperate need of a paycheck, in 2-3 months time and there should be MORE housing supply on the market in 2-3 months time...

Quote:

You guys are so focused on the job growth in San Diego as the reason everyone is going to continue moving here and driving up prices (wait, I thought it was the weather and lifestyle?).

Um, you are using the term "everyone" No one else is. Some people are moving here because those people, specifically in biotech/life sciences have one of the best opportunities right now here in san diego, simply because the dollars poured into biotech/life sciences into San Diego is pretty large lately, especially after covid.

Quote:

I worked in the tech industry during the .com bubble and I am seeing so many similarities that it is scary. What happened to all of those .com era startups, many in San Diego? I know a great many that evaporated. If the stock market collapses like in 2000 (and currently it appears well on its way), a lot of jobs will be lost. And with current housing and rent prices, a lot of folks will be leaving San Diego.

In tech, there will always be things come and go and something new happens. I agree, the dotcom era brought a lot of people that were in the tech industry that didn't really belong there and that were not really qualified to do. So when they had to cut heads, they cut people that were expendable that weren't really tech rooted (B and C quality workers that personally I could get myself to hire, but for some companies, they just wanted bodies)....When the dotcom bubble imploded, yes those people got washed out and couldn't find any other tech jobs, because they weren't really competent to be in tech to begin. But here's the thing: if it wasn't for the dotcom bubble, they never would have had the chance to make a lot more money given their limited abilities. So for them, jumping into tech, even as unqualified as they were, was an opportunity of a lifetime (albeit short lived).Most of them didn't hit the stock option jackpot that they were hoping for, but a lot of them for a short period of time were overcompensated for the (lack of tech) skills they had. When the music stopped, they simply went back to their normal paying jobs they had previously, and let the higher paying tech jobs left to the people who really knew what they were doing.

But, take a look at the bay area housing market:

If you are correct (that a large tech contraction would cause housing prices to drastically correct), then why is it when the .dotcom imploded in 2000-1 and a lot of people lost their jobs, home prices in the bay area didn't massively correct between 2001-2003? I was there in and out , and can confirm that there was some mild price changes, but it was really just noise. Rent prices in Santa Clara also did not materially decline: the rental we have there never had an extended vacancy or rent price reduction during those time, it stayed around $3500/month for 1600 sqft SFH in Santa Clara and kept going up as early as 2004. The only major price correction happened in 2008-2012 during subprime bubble, like everywhere else (which is why many of us are calling that an opportunity of a lifetime...)...There wasn't a major price correction right after the dot.com bubble burst. If we didn't see a massive foreclosure/price correction in the Bay Area (which is heavily tech concentrated) during the dot.com implosion, then again, why do you think any sort of contraction in tech here will have a drastic affect on home prices in SD overall, which is far less tech concentrated than the bay area????

=======

Speaking of relocation and working remotely in SD. Working remotely from SD isn't really new...Some people have been doing this as early 2001/2. It's just now a lot more people are doing it because a lot more companies find it acceptable post covid. Not every company will accept it, but a lot more company find it acceptable than back in 2001 when I did it. And even if terms change, people who were given that option to begin with are usually important/skilled enough to buy enough time to adapt to the change.

For me, after being in the bay area a few years and after 2 IPOS and 1 acquisition, I wanted to move back to San Diego. I decided to do this in 2001, when the dot.com imploded and many people were unemployed. Relative to everyone else, financially I was fine and in the worst case, if my employer didn't allow me to work remotely, I would be in no worse shape then everyone else that got laid off in tech. So I resigned and told my employer I needed to relocate to San Diego for personal reasons. We ended up working out a remote work arrangement for 1 year, so I could transition my team to someone else while I worked remotely from SD until something better came along. During that year, I didn't really look that hard, and when 2002 came around and my employer didn't allow me to continue working remotely, I took on some contracting gigs, mainly because my significant other felt bad that I didn't find anything yet...The contracting gigs paid well even during the tech blowup, but it wasn't my long term lifestyle I wanted. Every Friday, I hopped on an SAN-SFO flight and came back SFO-SAN either on Saturday or at the latest Sunday. And, I wasn't the only person on that flight that did that. That Friday flight was packed with techies that traveled between SFO-SAN or SJC-SAN. Even with that housing was cheaper, lifestyle was still better. I continued contracting gigs for 1 year until I found an opportunity down here with a large company HQ'd in bay area with a large office down here, and my comp package was close to bay area comps...

I don't think too many people working remotely in SD for a company in LA or SF would have any logistical issues in doing what I basically did 20 years ago. That's certainly better than some people I know who work in the defense sector that have to drive to Malibu from Poway 1-2 days each week, who have been doing this for some time.

Submitted by flyer on March 9, 2022 - 9:21am.

Per the comment below, it looks like many people will still be working remotely going forward. We have friends and some family, who love working from home and know they can continue to do so indefinitely. Luckily, most bought their dream homes prior to the pandemic, so it's working out well.

Still don't think that segment of society alone will make or break the housing market--there's a lot of money flowing from elsewhere. With all that's going on in the world, this may prove to be the least of our problems. Still hoping for the best on that front.

"Upwork estimates that 1 in 4 Americans over 26% of the American workforce will be working remotely through 2021. They also estimate that 22% of the workforce (36.2 Million Americans) will work remotely by 2025. Jan 16, 2022"

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 9:44am.

DZ posts individual new articles about each company that is going to a hybrid mode, which isn't that much of a surprise. But we're posting report after report of trends in the tech job market and specific in san diego... Here's a report about why office leases in San Diego haven't fallen off a cliff.. Again, demand from life sciences and biotech, that as we said in threads above, require in-person offices since they are companies that require labs....

sd commericial resd commericial re

https://www.piggington.com/sd_commericia...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2022 - 10:03am.

I ordered myself back to the office today. Coffee is better here

The OfficeThe Office

Submitted by teaboy on March 9, 2022 - 10:10am.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2022 - 11:07am.

LOL. I thought about changing it but appearing so tech unsavvy on a thread about tech workers just seemed like the more appropriate way to go

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 11:12am.

sdrealtor wrote:
LOL. I thought about changing it but appearing so tech unsavvy on a thread about tech workers just seemed like the more appropriate way to go

just flip your monitor around.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2022 - 11:47am.

Getting back to the topic though. DZ seems to like to pick and choose one thing and hone in on it. What he/she/they keeps missing is its a lot of things. This place we call home has changed. Yes i know the whole country has changed but here specifically has changed more in ways that arent going back. I remember having these conversations with CA renter over a decade ago trying to convince her that Encinitas/S Carlsbad was becoming a different place. Now even she would have a hard time arguing against that. When I came here 30 years ago you couldnt get dinner after 9 oclock and it was mostly a working class town. Today its home to a Tech Unicorn, a 5* oceanfront resort and a restaurant on its way to a Michelin * to name a few things. It doesnt take hundreds of new buyers to keep this market strong it takes a small handful each month. We have become the Newport Beach of SD County. Even during the downturn the wealthy were flocking there and they will keep coming here. There is no stopping the flow. And its not just my little corner of SD. Look at MM! Last year in 1st 10 weeks there were no $1M+ sales and this year there are 17! Once 3Roots is firmly entrenched there will be more wealth there. Carmel Valley you ask? Hello UCSD life science and tech boom! Of course those are just one thing and there is far more driving each of these areas upward and onward. I have no issue seeing things correct elsewhere much more but thats not my problem. Will things slow down and eventually turn down here. Sure they will. But this place we call home is irreversably changed and will fare better. Im happy for all of you who capitalized on the opportunity of a lifetime! Sorry for they/them that missed the boat

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on March 9, 2022 - 12:39pm.

flyer wrote:
And in other real estate news--don't think this will affect any of us. Personally, we haven't been flipping for awhile, so I'm not concerned--not the core of our business. There are lots of things going on in the world that could have an impact on real estate, but I don't think this will move the needle much, if at all.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — A state law maker from San Diego says short-term investors are contributing to the housing crisis. Now he’s introduced a Bill he says will give average people a chance to own a home again.

Flipping houses is nothing new. You purchase a property, make necessary changes and then sell it for a profit.

But Assembly member Chris Ward, from the 78th District, says that process is hurting the housing market and keeping average people from buying a home.

The California Housing Speculation Act or Assembly Bill 1771, is designed to change real estate tax policy and discourage some investors from quickly reselling properties like single family homes.

“It would be an additional income tax on the profit gain from a sale that occurred within three years of the previous sale,” said Ward.

Ward is proposing an additional 25% tax on the gain from the sale beginning January 1, 2023.

He says research shows U.S. investors bought a record $63.6 billion worth of homes by late last year. Nearly three-quarters of that was single family homes, the highest level it’s ever been.

“But we’ve also seen this influx of short-term investors trying to get into the market, outbid San Diegans and Californians with all-cash offers, and drive the prices up for everyone,” Ward said.

Ward says California does have a housing supply deficit, but profits continue to grow by 26% each year, which isn’t sustainable.

University of San Diego real estate professor Norm Miller says the Bill may help, but California’s tax laws are still more favorable to investors.

“But if you’re an investor, an institutional buyer, not only do you get unlimited tax right offs from the mortgage interest and the property taxes, you’ll also get depreciation, which is something an owner does not get on their own personal residence,” Miller said.

“So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

Interesting proposal…. Maybe this should be in its own thread.

Ward is misguided and probably doesn’t understand economics. How can limiting available inventory help buyers (assuming the extra tax reduces supply because owners will wait 3 years).

His quote makes this clear :

So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

Doesn’t he realize that the people in the market who might buy the home and fix to live in it already have that opportunity.

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 12:49pm.

.

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 12:49pm.

FormerSanDiegan wrote:
flyer wrote:
And in other real estate news--don't think this will affect any of us. Personally, we haven't been flipping for awhile, so I'm not concerned--not the core of our business. There are lots of things going on in the world that could have an impact on real estate, but I don't think this will move the needle much, if at all.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — A state law maker from San Diego says short-term investors are contributing to the housing crisis. Now he’s introduced a Bill he says will give average people a chance to own a home again.

Flipping houses is nothing new. You purchase a property, make necessary changes and then sell it for a profit.

But Assembly member Chris Ward, from the 78th District, says that process is hurting the housing market and keeping average people from buying a home.

The California Housing Speculation Act or Assembly Bill 1771, is designed to change real estate tax policy and discourage some investors from quickly reselling properties like single family homes.

“It would be an additional income tax on the profit gain from a sale that occurred within three years of the previous sale,” said Ward.

Ward is proposing an additional 25% tax on the gain from the sale beginning January 1, 2023.

He says research shows U.S. investors bought a record $63.6 billion worth of homes by late last year. Nearly three-quarters of that was single family homes, the highest level it’s ever been.

“But we’ve also seen this influx of short-term investors trying to get into the market, outbid San Diegans and Californians with all-cash offers, and drive the prices up for everyone,” Ward said.

Ward says California does have a housing supply deficit, but profits continue to grow by 26% each year, which isn’t sustainable.

University of San Diego real estate professor Norm Miller says the Bill may help, but California’s tax laws are still more favorable to investors.

“But if you’re an investor, an institutional buyer, not only do you get unlimited tax right offs from the mortgage interest and the property taxes, you’ll also get depreciation, which is something an owner does not get on their own personal residence,” Miller said.

“So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

Interesting proposal…. Maybe this should be in its own thread.

Ward is misguided and probably doesn’t understand economics. How can limiting available inventory help buyers (assuming the extra tax reduces supply because owners will wait 3 years).

His quote makes this clear :

So, if somebody’s trying to go in there, fix up a fixer-upper and then sell it for record profits, that is distorting the market because somebody else could have gone in there, done the same and kept the home,” Ward said.

Doesn’t he realize that the people in the market who might buy the home and fix to live in it already have that opportunity.

Lol on the proposed bill....

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 3:03pm.

Lol....

So one of my senior mobile engineers, the one that I previously said was working out of his RV/trailer traveling the US, decided to resign from my company. He's going on a 6 month hike from the mexican border to the canadian border.

I was like, man that's cool. I wish I did that when I was younger. So I tell my boss's boss that his last day will be next week. To my surprise, my boss's boss told me to ask him if he was interested in going on a 6 month sabbatical. I didn't even know sabbatical existed at my company. I was told, "not officially".... lol....

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