Back to the Office for Tech Workers

User Forum Topic
Submitted by deadzone on February 23, 2022 - 2:35pm

Covid is over now for all intents and purposes. Amazon announced return to the office (3 days a week) and no longer requiring vaccine.

You knew this was coming, other large tech companies will follow suite. This change in addition to tech stocks getting absolutely hammered in the stock market this year will pretty much put an end to the "Bay area tech worker moving to ___ for remote work".

Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. Anybody flipping houses now is going to get rammed hard. I think Zillow was wise to get out of that business when they did.

Submitted by Coronita on March 6, 2022 - 9:21am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
The story on how Putin likely came to power is bone chilling.

Basically he was minister of war under Yeltsin, who was facing corruption scandals. An election for president was coming up. Putin was polling at 2 percent. A series of bombings in apt buildings was killing Russian civilians, hundreds. Putin said it was Chechen rebels and went to war. Six months later he was president, absolved Yeltsin.

The evidence is very very strong that it was Putin and the secret police who did the bombings, not the Chechens, as a pretext for war. That you can read about in depth, lots of investigative journaling on that.

Based on that, odds of a nuclear war are probably more like 1:50.

Wrong thread. But ok we are all dead. No big deal.

Submitted by flyer on March 6, 2022 - 11:04am.

Yes, Scaredy, those possibilities make our little real estate issues seem even more insignificant, as those, and we, are in the end, anyway.

Still have hope that things will get better--especially for the people of Ukraine who are having to deal with the realities of this horrible situation every day for no reason other than the ego of a "high-functioning" psychopath--the worst kind--so will check back in on the other thread from time to time to see the opinions.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 6, 2022 - 11:26am.

Dilbert had a good one today matching this thread.

"Can't work remotely"

https://dilbert.com/strip/2022-03-06

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 6, 2022 - 2:05pm.

One thing I think gets missed is how small our market is. It only takes about 5 to 10 new buyers a month to collectively change/support our strongest markets. We dont even need new folks coming here to WFH remotely. Simply a change in preferences from local hybrid workers to want to live in a bigger/nicer home changes our market. There is so much going on here

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 7, 2022 - 9:45am.

Coronita wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
The story on how Putin likely came to power is bone chilling.

Basically he was minister of war under Yeltsin, who was facing corruption scandals. An election for president was coming up. Putin was polling at 2 percent. A series of bombings in apt buildings was killing Russian civilians, hundreds. Putin said it was Chechen rebels and went to war. Six months later he was president, absolved Yeltsin.

The evidence is very very strong that it was Putin and the secret police who did the bombings, not the Chechens, as a pretext for war. That you can read about in depth, lots of investigative journaling on that.

Based on that, odds of a nuclear war are probably more like 1:50.

Wrong thread. But ok we are all dead. No big deal.

I got lost in the fog of war and attacked the wrong thread. Did not mean that real estate or money issues were trivial.

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 9:49am.

an wrote:
sdr, exactly! There are many things we can't change and don't agree with. That doesn't mean we can't take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I'm just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I'm ready!

That's the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don't understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I'm just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.

Submitted by an on March 7, 2022 - 9:57am.

deadzone wrote:
That's the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don't understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I'm just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.

The country would disagree with you that a crash would be good. Many people were hurt the last time around. The rich people were the ones who were able to take the most advantage of the last crash.

Either way, I'm set up to take full advantage of whether we see a crash or a repeat of 1970s

Submitted by Coronita on March 7, 2022 - 10:19am.

deadzone wrote:
an wrote:
sdr, exactly! There are many things we can't change and don't agree with. That doesn't mean we can't take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I'm just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I'm ready!

That's the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don't understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I'm just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.

Lol, just because we don't agree with you that RE is going to crash for the reasons you say they will, doesn't mean we are afraid of it crashing. Like I said, we don't *need* real estate crash in order to have the opportunity to buy.

Bring it.

But since you previously talked about "selfishness", it's mightly selfish to wish others would have a financial turmoil just so you would personally benefit from it, after missing out the previous opportunity, right?

But *if* the economy crashes, it would interesting to see who can buy, if everyone ends up jobless..Hypothetically, if the economy crashes, and you end up unemployed DZ, would you have the financial means to buy a home? Because... For the finance turmoil you are hoping for, you are kidding yourself if you think you would magically not be affected...There's always a financial ladder pecking order. It's a question of who falls off the ladder first and how long people can hold on before things get better . Just like the real estate meltdown in 2008-9....Those that were properly capitalized then were able to buy then...Not everyone was able to though...Those that were able to hold on, are doing fine now....So...Be careful what you wish for...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 10:36am.

deadzone wrote:
an wrote:
sdr, exactly! There are many things we can't change and don't agree with. That doesn't mean we can't take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I'm just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I'm ready!

That's the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don't understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I'm just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.

You called? My ducks are very much in a row and my best years by a very large margin were in downturns. Who said Im not behind it? Im just pragmatic and reporting on what I see out there not what Id wish for

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 10:40am.

Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
an wrote:
sdr, exactly! There are many things we can't change and don't agree with. That doesn't mean we can't take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I'm just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I'm ready!

That's the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don't understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I'm just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.

Lol, just because we don't agree with you that RE is going to crash for the reasons you say they will, doesn't mean we are afraid of it crashing. Like I said, we don't *need* real estate crash in order to have the opportunity to buy.

Bring it.

But since you previously talked about "selfishness", it's mightly selfish to wish others would have a financial turmoil just so you would personally benefit from it, after missing out the previous opportunity, right?

But *if* the economy crashes, it would interesting to see who can buy, if everyone ends up jobless..Hypothetically, if the economy crashes, and you end up unemployed DZ, would you have the financial means to buy a home? Because... For the finance turmoil you are hoping for, you are kidding yourself if you think you would magically not be affected...There's always a financial ladder pecking order. It's a question of who falls off the ladder first and how long people can hold on before things get better . Just like the real estate meltdown in 2008-9....Those that were properly capitalized then were able to buy then...Not everyone was able to though...Those that were able to hold on, are doing fine now....So...Be careful what you wish for...

Good point FLU.I lost count of how many doctors and lawyers I saw move from Carmel Valley/Encinitas/Carlsbad to RSF, DM and LJ during the downturn. They kept their old homes as rentals until things recovered. A bunch I know sold them for more than the trophy homes they bought during the downturn.

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 10:57am.

sdrealtor wrote:
deadzone wrote:
an wrote:
sdr, exactly! There are many things we can't change and don't agree with. That doesn't mean we can't take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I'm just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I'm ready!

That's the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don't understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I'm just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.

You called? My ducks are very much in a row and my best years by a very large margin were in downturns. Who said Im not behind it? Im just pragmatic and reporting on what I see out there not what Id wish for

And I'm just being pragmatic too. If signs point to a major correction/crash, it is good to accept that and plan for it. Seems like we agree that inflation is out of control and that is not a good thing for the general populace. The only way this inflation is going to get under control is a crash of the current asset bubble. Looks fairly certain that the Fed is going to engineer this crash of the bubble they created.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 11:03am.

Once again the passage of time gets dismissed. W dont need a crash to fix this. A moderate correction over several years would take care of it also.

Im fine with whatever and have myself locked in everyway I'll ever need. Just heard Total Wine is coming to Encinitas. I may consider picking up a p/t gig so I can spend more time talking about wine. Certainly wouldnt do it for the money

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 11:03am.

But yes the general population is screwed either way. Unabated inflation destroys the lower to middle class more than wealthy class. But if the asset markets crash, guess what, the Fed will bail out their wealthy banker friends just like last time, while unemployment goes up for everyone else.

At some point the pitchforks will need to come out. If the us population can get that riled up about the George Floyd incident, imagine what will happen when they realize they can't afford the latest iphone?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 11:20am.

Ok you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 11:33am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Ok you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime

Not talking myself out of doing anything. You have a one track mind, the entire world doesn't revolve around investing in real estate. My investments in precious metals are on fire. My baseball cards are up big too. But they will definitely crash hard soon. Don't care, not giving up my vintage cards.

Submitted by flyer on March 7, 2022 - 11:57am.

I think just about all of us who are in a position to take advantage of a correction, as we have before, would, but I still would not wish or need for that to happen.

There are lots of deep pockets here and around the world, so, if it does happen, it will be ultra competitive among many investors, especially now that San Diego seems to be on the map even more so than in past years.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 1:57pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Ok you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime

Not talking myself out of doing anything. You have a one track mind, the entire world doesn't revolve around investing in real estate. My investments in precious metals are on fire. My baseball cards are up big too. But they will definitely crash hard soon. Don't care, not giving up my vintage cards.

Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got "liquid" assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on March 7, 2022 - 2:24pm.

deadzone wrote:

And I'm just being pragmatic too. If signs point to a major correction/crash, it is good to accept that and plan for it. Seems like we agree that inflation is out of control and that is not a good thing for the general populace. The only way this inflation is going to get under control is a crash of the current asset bubble. Looks fairly certain that the Fed is going to engineer this crash of the bubble they created.

One should consider what happened in the past when inflation was high and observe the impacts on real estate. Consider the decade from ~1972 -1984 which was one of the most significant periods of higher than post-WW2 average inflation.
What happened to home prices during that period ?

Inflation was ultImately tamed through fiscal and monetary policy changes (and perhaps demographic changes) and this period included three recessionary periods.

But what about home prices? Did the asset bubble burst in the correction or was real estate an effective way to survive that inflationary era ?

Median US home price January 1972 = 26,900
Median US home price January 1984 = 65,341

These are nominal dollars. In inflation adjusted terms home prices pretty much tracked inflation.

Source
https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

Home price during inflationary periodHome price during inflationary period

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 2:55pm.

You can't compare the 70s to today. The current asset bubble and subsequent inflation were caused directly by the Federal Reserve QE policy which has only existed since 2009. This was an experimental policy intended to recover from the 2008 financial crisis (and with real purpose to bail out the bankers and wealthy elite). But they clearly took this QE too far and the entire economy has been addicted to the Fed like a crack whore ever since. Then the Fed went into hyperdrive during Covid when the Fed nearly doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years

So how is this all going to end? Nobody can say for sure, but comparing this to past historical cycles is impossible because there is no precedent in US history to compare it with since QE didn't exist during previous bubbles. But we all know full well how speculative bubbles end. There is a rich history in this, and the 2000 .com bubble and 2008 RE bubble are very recent examples.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 3:05pm.

What you keep passing over is the majority of homeowners sitting on fixed rate mortgages of 3% or lower. Most people would just stay put or rent out their home even if that meant having to rent elsewhere. Even if rents came down (unlikely to any large degree) we have inflated so much homes will cash flow very nicely. Whos gonna give up a 2.5% fixed rate mortgage when rates are 5% or higher? I'll wait

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 3:08pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got "liquid" assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry

I definitely agree with you regarding RE as a good hedge. But you continue to throw out the tired opportunity of a lifetime line. As if someone's life is incomplete if they don't own a tract home in suburban NC San Diego. Sorry, not feeling bad about that. Feeling very good about my gold though.

Disagree to an extent on baseball cards. Absolutely you can sell ungraded cards for a lot of money on ebay. Or if the cards get into the 4+ figure range pay the $50 and get them slabbed. But you apparently didn't get to the end of my post, I said I'm not going to sell my cards even if they are at great risk of dropping value from here on out.

It is the investors that are ruining the vintage baseball card market just like they've ruined the RE market, thanks Fed!

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 3:12pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
What you keep passing over is the majority of homeowners sitting on fixed rate mortgages of 3% or lower. Most people would just stay put or rent out their home even if that meant having to rent elsewhere. Even if rents came down (unlikely to any large degree) we have inflated so much homes will cash flow very nicely. Whos gonna give up a 2.5% fixed rate mortgage when rates are 5% or higher? I'll wait

Absolutely! The majority of homeowners "should" be fine and be able to weather a major economic downturn. If, and this is a big If, they didn't over extend themselves by pulling out equity to purchase investment properties and Landrovers. But it sure smells like a lot of folks have been doing this. If not, then there is no reason to fear a market crash/correction/recession. Bring it on!

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 3:53pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got "liquid" assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry

I definitely agree with you regarding RE as a good hedge. But you continue to throw out the tired opportunity of a lifetime line. As if someone's life is incomplete if they don't own a tract home in suburban NC San Diego. Sorry, not feeling bad about that. Feeling very good about my gold though.

Just over 10 years ago you could buy a house in my hood for $750,000 putting $150,000 down. You would have enjoyed 10 years of stability in a wonderful place. Your PITI would now be about 50% of the current rent. Your principal would now be about $460,000 after paying a monthly amount lower than rent for the home. Your home would be roughly $2M so your equity would have gone from $150K to over $1.5M in about 10 years so thats 10X. You are locked into affordability and have created a good amount of generational wealth for you family. If that isnt the opportunity of a lifetime I dont know what is.

Or 10 years ago you could have bought Gold. It was about $1650. Now its around $2,000. How could you possibly feel good about that?

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 4:09pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

Just over 10 years ago you could buy a house in my hood for $750,000 putting $150,000 down. You would have enjoyed 10 years of stability in a wonderful place. Your PITI would now be about 50% of the current rent. Your principal would now be about $460,000 after paying a monthly amount lower than rent for the home. Your home would be roughly $2M so your equity would have gone from $150K to over $1.5M in about 10 years so thats 10X. You are locked into affordability and have created a good amount of generational wealth for you family. If that isnt the opportunity of a lifetime I dont know what is.

Or 10 years ago you could have bought Gold. It was about $1650. Now its around $2,000. How could you possibly feel good about that?

Sure, I don't disagree that purchasing RE in 2012 would have been a great investment. Opportunity of a lifetime? A little over-dramatic. I think it is time for you to retire that line.
But for the record, I loaded up on gold in 2009-10 when it was under $1000 an ounce. And more recently I loaded up on Energy stocks when oil was under $70. Opportunity of a lifetime? Nah, but feeling good about it.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 4:43pm.

Gold was not under $1000 in 2010 and that is more than 10 years and at best 2X not close to the 10X opportunity of a lifetime. Here you go this one up here closed almost exactly 10 years ago to the day on a 1/4 acre lot. In 2011 and 2012 over 50 homes in this neighborhood sold under $800K. Opportunity was everywhere. Zillow is probably about $200K low on the current value and it would easily rent for $6500 now. This one is closer to 13X

https://www.zillow.com/homes/2903-Camino...?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 4:52pm.

And if you have a better one Im all ears

Submitted by deadzone on March 7, 2022 - 4:56pm.

Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.

Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don't understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.

Submitted by an on March 7, 2022 - 5:32pm.

I wonder what housing did between 2002-2012 after the .com crash in 2001-2002.

Someone seems to be married to one potential outcome. I personally think we're more likely to see a repeat of the 70s than 2008. But I'm ready for both.

I agree with sdr that RE was an opportunity of a life time if you had the gut to buy between 2009-2019.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on March 7, 2022 - 5:36pm.

deadzone wrote:
You can't compare the 70s to today. The current asset bubble and subsequent inflation were caused directly by the Federal Reserve QE policy which has only existed since 2009. This was an experimental policy intended to recover from the 2008 financial crisis (and with real purpose to bail out the bankers and wealthy elite). But they clearly took this QE too far and the entire economy has been addicted to the Fed like a crack whore ever since. Then the Fed went into hyperdrive during Covid when the Fed nearly doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years

I can indeed compare the 1970s to today. (In fact that’s exactly what I did above) In fact some of the monetary levers pulled were much more drastic than QE, such as end of Bretton Woods, effectively eliminating any ties to gold, etc. History doesn’t repeat itself exactly but often it rhymes. Those who ignore it do so at their own peril

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2022 - 6:00pm.

deadzone wrote:
Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.

Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don't understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.

It doesn’t bother me at all. Why you might ask? Well the Answer is those personal investment decisions made 10-20 years ago that you think are irrelevant and I know are life altering. And you could’ve bought anything anywhere. I only use NC tract houses because that’s where I live. Had you bought anything anywhere here you would’ve capitalized on the opportunity of a lifetime

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