Back to the Office for Tech Workers

User Forum Topic
Submitted by deadzone on February 23, 2022 - 2:35pm

Covid is over now for all intents and purposes. Amazon announced return to the office (3 days a week) and no longer requiring vaccine.

You knew this was coming, other large tech companies will follow suite. This change in addition to tech stocks getting absolutely hammered in the stock market this year will pretty much put an end to the "Bay area tech worker moving to ___ for remote work".

Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. Anybody flipping houses now is going to get rammed hard. I think Zillow was wise to get out of that business when they did.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 2, 2022 - 11:09pm.

And every company that says they are going back will allow exceptions. Lots of exceptions. Google/Amazon guy with millions in the bank who loves his job, doesnt need to work but says if you make me go back Im done. What do you think Google/Amazon management gonna say to that?

Submitted by deadzone on March 2, 2022 - 11:57pm.

an wrote:
deadzone wrote:
All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don't agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn't change that fact.

I guess Meta is not big.

Twilio with 5-10k employees is not big. Twitter with 1-5k employees is not big. ZenDesk with 1-5k employee is not big, SquareSpace with 1-5k employee is not big, Oracle with 10k+ employees is not big, DocuSign with 5-10k employee is not big, VMWare with 10k+ employees is not big, I can go on and on. You can easily do a search on LinkedIn for Director Of Engineering and filter for only Remote (LinkedIn have this filter now, shows you where the demand is at) and you'll see 40 pages of jobs open today that's 100% remote.

So you are cherry picking here it would seem. Also are you claiming that all of these companies are 100% remote permanently? If so, have they all sold off their office space that existed pre-Covid? I'll believe a company is going full remote when they dump all of their office space.

Submitted by an on March 3, 2022 - 7:58am.

deadzone wrote:

So you are cherry picking here it would seem. Also are you claiming that all of these companies are 100% remote permanently? If so, have they all sold off their office space that existed pre-Covid? I'll believe a company is going full remote when they dump all of their office space.

Not cherry picking, just going down the list of companies on the first page. Do you think they'll hire a bunch of remote people only to fire them a few weeks/months later because they won't relocate?

Life is not black and white and I never said all. like sdr said, there will be a lot of exceptions. The office environment is not going back to pre-covid. Things have changed and will continue to evolve as different companies find their new culture.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 3, 2022 - 8:25am.

One thing or rather someone hasn’t changed

Submitted by Coronita on March 3, 2022 - 8:47am.

Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

I'm certainly glad that I don't have to regularlypay $5 a gallon for gas in order to go to work every single day at an office. I can now get through 2.5 months without filling up. I can drive each car for about 3 weeks but at the end of 2.5 months I have to fill up five cars lol

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 9:09am.

Coronita wrote:
Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

I'm certainly glad that I don't have to regularlypay $5 a gallon for gas in order to go to work every single day at an office. I can now get through 2.5 months without filling up. I can drive each car for about 3 weeks but at the end of 2.5 months I have to fill up five cars lol

Obviously nearly everyone would prefer to work at home. But you can't always get what you want.

Of course remote work will be more common than before Covid. But during Covid nearly every white collar worker in the US worked remote. That is going to reverse itself to a large extent.

Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I'll believe they are going fully remote permanently.

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 9:39am.

Coronita wrote:
Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

What sour grapes? I just pointed out the obvious, that the majority of office workers that moved remote during Covid, will return to the office when Covid is over. I even provided examples with two of the largest tech companies in the world, Google and Amazon, announcing this fact and certainly there will be more to follow. It seems some of the folks on here don't like that idea, that's the sour grapes.

Submitted by Coronita on March 3, 2022 - 9:42am.

Day off from work again to post here, dz? Lol...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 3, 2022 - 9:50am.

deadzone wrote:
Coronita wrote:
Man someone has really bad sour grapes and crow for breakfast. Desperately needing people to lose their job and housing crash in order to not feel getting left behind. UmOk..

I'm certainly glad that I don't have to regularlypay $5 a gallon for gas in order to go to work every single day at an office. I can now get through 2.5 months without filling up. I can drive each car for about 3 weeks but at the end of 2.5 months I have to fill up five cars lol

Obviously nearly everyone would prefer to work at home. But you can't always get what you want.

Of course remote work will be more common than before Covid. But during Covid nearly every white collar worker in the US worked remote. That is going to reverse itself to a large extent.

Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I'll believe they are going fully remote permanently.

With real estate as valuable as it is why would anyone sell off all their real estate holdings?

But if you try sometime, you just might find you'll get what you need.

Submitted by Coronita on March 3, 2022 - 10:24am.

Quote:

With real estate as valuable as it is why would anyone sell off all their real estate holdings?

But if you try sometime, you just might find you'll get what you need.

To move to Utah I guess. I look at my real estate as my retirement pension.

oh funny story sdr. Remember that tenant that cancelled his lease because he went on vacation for 2 months and didn't want to pay rent while he was on vacation? He called me yesterday and asked if my place was still available. I was like dude,.I rented it out less than 10 days after you moved out for almost $300/month more, and there were like close 40 applicants... And then he went on a mini rant that he can't find a anything 1/1 less than $2k/month and that single rooms in houses were going for $1500/month.... I was kinda dying laughing inside and tempted to say I "told ya so, you idiot, I was trying to talk you out of it for your own good" and rub it in...but I just kept to "well good luck to you finding something
...."

I think if I were to bring each place to current market price for rent, I'd bring in about $10.8k/month , which a few years ago I would not have thought would be possible without purchasing 1+2 more rentals.. but I won't be greedy and jack up rents unless..the next tenant that doesn't want to pay for rent when he goes on vacation and moves out over it...lol

Interesting thing that also happened....One of my friends put a MM rental on the market...The rental turned into a bidding war. Where tenant prospects ended up paying above asking for rent. It ended up about $250/month than asking. I hadnt seen that except in the Bay Area rental market. Welcome to Bay Area housing dynamics.

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 10:40am.

Coronita wrote:
Day off from work again to post here, dz? Lol...

I work from home like everyone else, have a lot of free time to Jerk Off.

But based on traffic I've noticed on the freeways recently during rush hour, makes me wonder how many folks actually still work from home. When everyone really begins to return to to the office it is going to be a blood bath out there.

Submitted by teaboy on March 3, 2022 - 12:50pm.

deadzone wrote:

Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I'll believe they are going fully remote permanently.

Yesyesyes.
I have been surprised that commercial real estate has not hit a bigger downturn since the pandemic started. With more online shopping, I had expected to see more stores shut completely. And with more companies leaning in to wfh, I'd expected more offices to close permanently.
It also continues to surprise me to see rush hour as busy as it is (..at least anecdotally on the occasions when I find myself driving somewhere during those times.)

Actually, all this is anecdotal observation, as I haven't seen much compelling data on commercial real estate that fits my previous (layman) expectations.

tb

Submitted by Coronita on March 3, 2022 - 1:21pm.

deadzone wrote:

Again, show me examples of large companies selling off all their office space and property and I'll believe they are going fully remote permanently.

Um... Most companies don't own their own offices anymore but....

https://www.globest.com/2021/09/20/san-d...

"San Diego Office Vacancy Heads Up, Again
In the second quarter, office availability grew 30 basis points to 20.7%, the highest since 2011."

BUT....If you read the article though. life sciences/biotech is one area where there's huge demand.

And it probably makes sense. Life sciences/biotech usually requires an onsite lab facility. It's not conducive to work at home.... .

"While tech and life science companies aren’t saving the market, they are driving the bulk of the leasing activity, thanks in large part to venture capital investment. In fact, demand for lab space increased 280% since March 2020 and office demand has already surpassed pre-COVID levels, according to research from JLL. This will likely support most office leasing activity and help to improve the metrics into 2022. According to JLL’s Tim Olson, senior managing director, the demand is driving both leasing and investment activity in the market."

And we do know that here in San Diego, the investments in life sciences and biotech has been significantly expanding. $2.5 billion invested in San Diego.

https://www.costar.com/article/159564294...

Here's another article about how demand for life science facilities is actually in short supply...

https://timesofsandiego.com/business/202...

"emand for new life sciences space is outpacing speculative construction among the top 12 U.S. life sciences hubs, including San Diego, according to a new report from CBRE.

Life sciences companies, rapidly expanding amid a race for new drug development, collectively sought nearly 23.8 million square feet of new laboratory space in those markets in the third quarter.

That exceeds the amount of lab space under spec construction – meaning space being built without a tenant already signed – by nearly 2.8 million square feet. The gap has widened steadily since last year – even as construction has ramped up considerably, growth in demand continues to outpace it.

The San Diego research and development lab vacancy rate currently sits at 2.2%, tighter than the Bay Area."

So perhaps, simply put, none of us understands how the commercial real estate market works. Maybe not all commercial real estate is the same, and some buildings cannot simply be repurposed easily for the in-demand life sciences facilities....

It sure sounds like for SD, remote work friendly or not, that's not entirely driving demand for housing locally. There might be a component to that. But it sure sounds in addition to that, there's also a lot of companies setting up shop here in SD now... And maybe what we have is a perfect storm of both factors is why housing is in such short supply (that and builders not building enough)...

Speaking of heavy SD investment....it's not just life sciences/biotech investments are pouring in....

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus...

"In rare twist, San Diego tech startups outmuscle life science firms for top money deals"

I mean, let's think about this. When that new MM 3Roots community started taking waitlists for new home buyers, there were 14k+ people on a waitlist for 200 homes, and that's before they stopped taking additional people on the wait list....

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus...

Think about that... That's a 70:1 ratio....
How bad does the real estate market have to get to knock off demand when it's a 70:1 ratio

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 3, 2022 - 1:21pm.

The vacant office space in SD is predominantly downtown. Suburban office space is doing much better

Submitted by Coronita on March 3, 2022 - 1:38pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
The vacant office space in SD is predominantly downtown. Suburban office space is doing much better

I'm guessing most of us don't understand how commercial RE works...

It's not a simple, well a lot more people are working from home, so offices must be closing or vacant....

Sounds to me that there are a lot more jobs here in SD now, whether it's remote or not remote.

Which is why I don't understand's DZ's facination with some companies are now asking people to return back to the office in San Diego thinking that will cause real estate to crash by itself....

If we did have job growth in SD and a good portion is in life sciences and biotech, then lot more people now earn a lot more in SD....since I don't know too many biotech scientists that are paid peanuts ..

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 3, 2022 - 2:04pm.

San Diego’s Office Sector Outperforms Nearby Metros;
Tech-Related Expansions Fuel Recovery

Large-scale leases signal long-term confidence. Contrasting other Southern Califor-
nia markets, office vacancy in San Diego compressed by more than 100 basis points last

year. A bevy of 50,000-square-foot-plus commitments by life-science and tech firms was
largely to credit for the notable improvement in leasing velocity. Highlighting activity
in 2021, Apple inked six agreements for floorplans in UTC and Rancho Bernardo that
together totaled nearly 500,000 square feet. Additionally, medical device companies

Tandem Diabetes Care and Becton, Dickinson and Company agreed to occupy a com-
bined 400,000 square feet in Del Mar Heights. Expectations for office-using job creation

to outpace last year suggests other sizable commitments may await the metro in 2022. As
a result, submarkets outside of Downtown San Diego, where vacancy remains well above
20 percent, may see vacancy rates fall below their long-term averages as sparse deliveries
in these locales steer prospective tenants to existing properties.
Conversion and retenanting prospects support diverse buyer pool. Institutional and
private sales activity strengthened in San Diego last year, coinciding with the return of
positive absorption and greater pricing clarity. Sorrento Mesa and adjacent areas that

are hubs for life-science companies are attracting national investors seeking $20 mil-
lion-plus assets. These submarkets boast sizable inventories of high-end space; however,

larger Class B properties are accounting for the bulk of trades. Candidates for conversion
to lab or R&D space are coveted, as assets that have undergone similar repositioning are
swiftly securing high-profile biotech tenants. Private investors are active in the sub-$10
million space, targeting smaller Class C properties near Balboa Park and Interstate 8 that
have historically been occupied by professional services firms. Assets with upcoming
leasing expirations or notable vacancies are available at low-5 to mid-7 percent returns.

Submitted by Coronita on March 3, 2022 - 3:10pm.

Thanks for sending the report... So what a lot of us has been saying is true....San Diego has significant job growth in tech and life sciences... Not that I doubted it...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 3, 2022 - 4:54pm.

Speaking of getting back to the commute.

Who wants to bet me that new Gas money relief checks (helicopter money) or maybe some no-commute order are coming soon ?

Just kidding sort of.

Submitted by an on March 3, 2022 - 4:59pm.

Coronita wrote:

I mean, let's think about this. When that new MM 3Roots community started taking waitlists for new home buyers, there were 14k+ people on a waitlist for 200 homes, and that's before they stopped taking additional people on the wait list....

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus...

Think about that... That's a 70:1 ratio....
How bad does the real estate market have to get to knock off demand when it's a 70:1 ratio


When 3Roots first started, Lennar's biggest model in Alta development started out at low $1m. Then when it gets more concrete, they say starting at $1.3m. Now, it's going for $1.65m+. All in the span of 6 months. Now, the bigger question is, can you even get pick to buy the place.

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 5:20pm.

$5 gas doesn't even phase San Diegans. From what I've seen lately, rush hour traffic is near or at pre-covid levels already.

As far as alternate transportation, the Covid cycling boom appears to have fizzled out as expected. But that was all about recreational biking, not commuting.

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 5:24pm.

Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don't we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 3, 2022 - 5:39pm.

Not really about San Diegans, But not everyone's a tech worker either so $5 or possibly $7 Gas would hurt at the margins,

But that besides my point, I Just say TPTB will not allow anything that leads to a recession IMO.

In fact I double dog dare TPTB to not ride to the rescue to prevent a recession.

TPTB I know your out there, do it prove me wrong!!

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 5:44pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Not really about San Diegans, But not everyone's a tech worker either so $5 or possibly $7 Gas would hurt at the margins,

But that besides my point, I Just say TPTB will not allow anything that leads to a recession IMO.

In fact I double dog dare TPTB to not ride to the rescue to prevent a recession.

But how will they avoid it? The only way to avoid it is for Fed to continue printing. In that case gas could go to $10 a gallon, or $20? or who knows. At this point maybe my gold investments will finally pay off!

But really they need a crash, that's the only way prices will calm down. Then no matter how bad the crash gets, the bankers will be guaranteed to be bailed out so why do they care if there is a crash? Then Fed just blows up another bubble.

I don't understand why folks on here think a crash is such a bad thing from the perspective of Wall St. bankers and other elites who basically control the country. They win either way.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 3, 2022 - 5:48pm.

My point, no recession, no way to clear out the excesses.
They just keep growing

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 6:26pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
My point, no recession, no way to clear out the excesses.
They just keep growing

So you think the Fed is going to keep expanding their balance sheet? That's the only way the economy will keep growing. But with 7.5% inflation and $5 gas? Not what they are publicly saying right now but nothing would shock me. I heard Powell yesterday say that he doesn't believe the balance sheet expansion (the 4+ trillion the Fed printed since Covid) is the cause of inflation. Do you think he really believes this? None of the clueless congressmen yesterday even questioned this claim.

Submitted by Coronita on March 3, 2022 - 7:24pm.

deadzone wrote:
Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don't we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?

It's hybrid. 2-3 days at work, exceptions can be made. Qualcomm never had plans to go full remote...ever...

Again, you are arguing with yourself here in cirles. Not sure what you are trying to get at.

Are you saying because a bunch of Qualcomm people are going back to the office, the demand for real estate here will suddenly drop off?
If so, that makes no sense.

Whether Qualcomm is going back to the office or not doesn't matter. Qualcomm is based here SD. so if people need to work in the office, they need a home here SD. If they were working remote, they still need a home here in SD. So how is Qualcomm being fully remote or hybrid or fully on office matter to the local SD housing market?

The only difference would be a employer not based here in San Diego allowing people to work anywhere.Like tenant that signed a 2 year lease. Both are in marketing and work remote. She has to show up every so often to either the satellite office in OldTown or meet quarterly in LA. But other tha that they will stay down here and send their kids to school on DelMarUnified for $5000/month for 2800 sqft versus previously spending $5000/month for a 2/2 apt in Culver City with Culver City schools...
So, there are some transplants.

And there's a lot of job growth here in SD where new people have new high paid biotech/life sciences job..That also means people need housing.

So why does.a few large companies saying they are doing a hybrid model make a signficant difference in the SD housing demand?

There appears to be 3 different categories of people living and working here and the remote workers is only one of those 3.

BTW: hybird model works if the job is in LA or OC. If one only.needs.to show up for work 1-2 days, so.e people dont mind taking the coaster to OC for example. I had a patent attorney friend that did that years ago...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 3, 2022 - 7:25pm.

LOL just saw south park "city people",

No offence SDR JTR it was definitely on topic for this thread

DZ its just my theory that no recessions are allowed after 2009 when the TPTB discovered helicopter money.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 3, 2022 - 7:50pm.

Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don't we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?

It's hybrid. 2-3 days at work, exceptions can be made. Qualcomm never had plans to go full remote...ever...

Again, you are arguing with yourself here in cirles. Not sure what you are trying to get at.

Are you saying because a bunch of Qualcomm people are going back to the office, the demand for real estate here will suddenly drop off?
If so, that makes no sense.

Whether Qualcomm is going back to the office or not doesn't matter. Qualcomm is based here SD. so if people need to work in the office, they need a home here SD. If they were working remote, they still need a home here in SD. So how is Qualcomm being fully remote or hybrid or fully on office matter to the local SD housing market?

The only difference would be a employer not based here in San Diego allowing people to work anywhere.Like tenant that signed a 2 year lease. Both are in marketing and work remote. She has to show up every so often to either the satellite office in OldTown or meet quarterly in LA. But other tha that they will stay down here and send their kids to school on DelMarUnified for $5000/month for 2800 sqft versus previously spending $5000/month for a 2/2 apt in Culver City with Culver City schools...
So, there are some transplants.

And there's a lot of job growth here in SD where new people have new high paid biotech/life sciences job..That also means people need housing.

So why does.a few large companies saying they are doing a hybrid model make a signficant difference in the SD housing demand?

There appears to be 3 different categories of people living and working here and the remote workers is only one of those 3.

BTW: hybird model works if the job is in LA or OC. If one only.needs.to show up for work 1-2 days, so.e people dont mind taking the coaster to OC for example. I had a patent attorney friend that did that years ago...

One of my good friends is full remote at QCOM. Has been for almost two years from east coast. When they initially said no, he said oh ok guess I’ll go find another job. He arranged that before COVID. He lived here over 20 years and wants to live other places. He’ll never move back and can stay there as long as he wants. He does visit his wine at my house every couple months

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 9:41pm.

Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Regarding commercial real estate, since we are focusing on Tech industry in this thread why don't we watch Qualcomm as a barometer since they are the largest tech company in San Diego.

So what are their plans for bringing employees back to the office? Or if they are seriously going full remote on permanent basis, then they should be jettisoning a lot of their office space. Is this happening? Anyone know?

It's hybrid. 2-3 days at work, exceptions can be made. Qualcomm never had plans to go full remote...ever...

Again, you are arguing with yourself here in cirles. Not sure what you are trying to get at.

Are you saying because a bunch of Qualcomm people are going back to the office, the demand for real estate here will suddenly drop off?
If so, that makes no sense.

Whether Qualcomm is going back to the office or not doesn't matter. Qualcomm is based here SD. so if people need to work in the office, they need a home here SD. If they were working remote, they still need a home here in SD. So how is Qualcomm being fully remote or hybrid or fully on office matter to the local SD housing market?

The only difference would be a employer not based here in San Diego allowing people to work anywhere.Like tenant that signed a 2 year lease. Both are in marketing and work remote. She has to show up every so often to either the satellite office in OldTown or meet quarterly in LA. But other tha that they will stay down here and send their kids to school on DelMarUnified for $5000/month for 2800 sqft versus previously spending $5000/month for a 2/2 apt in Culver City with Culver City schools...
So, there are some transplants.

And there's a lot of job growth here in SD where new people have new high paid biotech/life sciences job..That also means people need housing.

So why does.a few large companies saying they are doing a hybrid model make a signficant difference in the SD housing demand?

There appears to be 3 different categories of people living and working here and the remote workers is only one of those 3.

BTW: hybird model works if the job is in LA or OC. If one only.needs.to show up for work 1-2 days, so.e people dont mind taking the coaster to OC for example. I had a patent attorney friend that did that years ago...

The only one going around in circles is you FLU. I'm just using Qualcomm as a representative large tech company that happens to be local so we can easily verify their happenings. You guys are the ones arguing that remote work is here stay, and nobody is going back to the office, blah blah blah. Well apparently that is not the case at Qualcomm, Amazon or Google and many, many more companies.

The point is there is not going to be another big wave of workers moving to San Diego or anywhere else to remote work. THat ship has already sailed.

Submitted by deadzone on March 3, 2022 - 9:51pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
LOL just saw south park "city people",

No offence SDR JTR it was definitely on topic for this thread

DZ its just my theory that no recessions are allowed after 2009 when the TPTB discovered helicopter money.

Well it sound great if you can just push the "print" button whenever you want to keep the economy going. But it only works if somehow inflation is under control. That is no longer the case, so something has to give.

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