Back to the Office for Tech Workers

User Forum Topic
Submitted by deadzone on February 23, 2022 - 2:35pm

Covid is over now for all intents and purposes. Amazon announced return to the office (3 days a week) and no longer requiring vaccine.

You knew this was coming, other large tech companies will follow suite. This change in addition to tech stocks getting absolutely hammered in the stock market this year will pretty much put an end to the "Bay area tech worker moving to ___ for remote work".

Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. Anybody flipping houses now is going to get rammed hard. I think Zillow was wise to get out of that business when they did.

Submitted by Coronita on February 25, 2022 - 1:40pm.

deadzone wrote:
Coronita wrote:

Shouldn't you be back in the office, deadzone, working and not wasting time on the internet? I mean, people that work in the office are suppose to be more focused and efficient and not waste time using company resources checking out a finance blog, right?

I'm actually not working today so no guilt. That reminds me of another of my favorite Office Space scenes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBfTrjPSShs

I think the remote work revolution, long term, is just going to expose the reality that Office Space pointed out more than 20 years ago. The end game to this is if/when the Fed easy money policy changes, there will be a lot of layoffs and more and more US remote workers replaced by Indians and others.

Lol, and like Indians, and Romanians, Polish, and Eastern slovik contract engineers don't slack off....ever.... You definitely must not be in management...lol...

How much is the Dow suppose to fall again? Can I get a quote from you again?

Interesting, why is it every time you are on piggington, you are conveniently also not working???? I think this is the nth time those went hand in hand.

Hmmmmmmm.

Submitted by deadzone on February 25, 2022 - 1:40pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won't correct post-covid?

Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others

I don't have any particular prediction other than pre-covid 2020 values is a logical starting point for correction. Beyond that who knows, some markets will correct more/less than others as you always point out. If Fed pivots again and ignores inflation, who knows what will happen. If I've learned anything about investing from the last 13 years, it is don't fight the Fed.

Submitted by Coronita on February 25, 2022 - 1:42pm.

Dow only up now 700. Come on Deadzone. Please, try harder. We need that correction prediction soon. Only 19 minutes left before the day close...

Come on, you can do it. Push it over 1000. Need you to post some really negative thing

Submitted by deadzone on February 25, 2022 - 1:42pm.

Let's fact it, none of us are "working". Only difference is I'm currently not charging my time to the company or customer.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 25, 2022 - 1:45pm.

Now you are moonwalking. You said they have to go back to pre COVID. They don’t and are extremely unlikely too. Here is yet another reason. Real estate values are very sticky on the downward side and it takes a lot of time for them to adjust downward. The passage of time heals a lot of wounds and allows inflation to blunt a lot of what you expect. Lather rinse repeat and rent

Submitted by Coronita on February 25, 2022 - 1:46pm.

deadzone wrote:
Let's fact it, none of us are "working". Only difference is I'm currently not charging my time to the company or customer.

I'm not an hourly worker, so I don't know what you mean by "charging my time to a company or customer..." That would be unethical.

Are you an hourly person? If so, then I totally understand people might be concerned for wanting you to work in the office so they monitor you and make sure every hour you or your agency charges you are actually doing something. Yes, that probably makes much more sense for hourly paid workers...

Submitted by deadzone on February 25, 2022 - 1:53pm.

Coronita wrote:
Dow only up now 700. Come on Deadzone. Please, try harder. We need that correction prediction soon. Only 19 minutes left before the day close...

Come on, you can do it. Push it over 1000. Need you to post some really negative thing

your stock portfolio must be in very bad shape if you are cheerleading the market this hard!

Anyway, don't talk to me, talk to J Powell if you need some help. All he has to do is make the following announcement: "due to unexpected geo-political risks, the Federal Reserve has decided to postpone the originally scheduled monetary tightening until a date to be determined"

This statement is what the market is dreaming about right now. Wouldn't shock me one bit if it actually happens. If so, we will certainly go back to all time highs and your portfolio will be solid again.

Submitted by deadzone on February 25, 2022 - 2:00pm.

Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Coronita wrote:

Shouldn't you be back in the office, deadzone, working and not wasting time on the internet? I mean, people that work in the office are suppose to be more focused and efficient and not waste time using company resources checking out a finance blog, right?

I'm actually not working today so no guilt. That reminds me of another of my favorite Office Space scenes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBfTrjPSShs

I think the remote work revolution, long term, is just going to expose the reality that Office Space pointed out more than 20 years ago. The end game to this is if/when the Fed easy money policy changes, there will be a lot of layoffs and more and more US remote workers replaced by Indians and others.

Lol, and like Indians, and Romanians, Polish, and Eastern slovik contract engineers don't slack off....ever.... You definitely must not be in management...lol...

How much is the Dow suppose to fall again? Can I get a quote from you again?

Interesting, why is it every time you are on piggington, you are conveniently also not working???? I think this is the nth time those went hand in hand.

Hmmmmmmm.

Yes but those foreign workers charge a lot less money to slack off.

Submitted by Coronita on February 25, 2022 - 2:06pm.

deadzone wrote:
Coronita wrote:
Dow only up now 700. Come on Deadzone. Please, try harder. We need that correction prediction soon. Only 19 minutes left before the day close...

Come on, you can do it. Push it over 1000. Need you to post some really negative thing

your stock portfolio must be in very bad shape if you are cheerleading the market this hard!

Anyway, don't talk to me, talk to J Powell if you need some help. All he has to do is make the following announcement: "due to unexpected geo-political risks, the Federal Reserve has decided to postpone the originally scheduled monetary tightening until a date to be determined"

This statement is what the market is dreaming about right now. Wouldn't shock me one bit if it actually happens. If so, we will certainly go back to all time highs and your portfolio will be solid again.

I can't argue with that. I wish I was doing better this year. I'm down -4.98% Retirement accounts slightly less damage due to a lot less risk.

20222022

Please help , deadzone!

Submitted by Coronita on February 25, 2022 - 2:40pm.

Damn, deadzone, you'll need to be more negative at closing on monday. We only inched an extra 100pt on dow.. We fell short of the +1000 dow gain in one day.

Let's try again on Monday!

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 25, 2022 - 5:01pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won't correct post-covid?

Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others

I don't have any particular prediction other than pre-covid 2020 values is a logical starting point for correction. Beyond that who knows, some markets will correct more/less than others as you always point out. If Fed pivots again and ignores inflation, who knows what will happen. If I've learned anything about investing from the last 13 years, it is don't fight the Fed.

What I was talking about last year that you said I was making up. Carlsbad has highest appreciation and even more Meaningful as one of the highest cost markets. Everything was going up everywhere just here faster

https://fox5sandiego.com/news/business/c...

Submitted by deadzone on March 2, 2022 - 12:48pm.

No surprise, now Google announcing return to the office. Obviously Google and Amazon are the leaders of the Tech industry, the rest of the industry is going to fall in line with them.

Sure there will be some niche workers who continue to remote work forever, and small companies like FLU's where the logistically it makes more sense to remote work perhaps. But from macro scale, the reality is majority of workers are going to have to come in to the office, at least part time.

Submitted by Coronita on March 2, 2022 - 1:11pm.

deadzone wrote:
No surprise, now Google announcing return to the office. Obviously Google and Amazon are the leaders of the Tech industry, the rest of the industry is going to fall in line with them.

Sure there will be some niche workers who continue to remote work forever, and small companies like FLU's where the logistically it makes more sense to remote work perhaps. But from macro scale, the reality is majority of workers are going to have to come in to the office, at least part time.

Google was already an in-person only office anyway. That hasn't changed from day 1. They never had a plan to allow remote work permanent. There's no difference.

Microsoft on the other hand did decide to accept remote workers, for the right candidate, as several recruiters have explained to me. There's a reason for that too. They are trying to lead by example that their tech lends itself to remote work, which is why they are massively expanding their Teams platform..

Is the stock market and tech and housing market still going to crash? We need another boost today :)

Submitted by deadzone on March 2, 2022 - 2:03pm.

Obviously a massive amount of Google employees have been working exclusively at home since Covid, just like most other companies. Now many are going to go back to the office.

Bottom line, the number of folks working exclusively from home, will be a fraction of the folks compared to during Covid.

I'm not predicting a crash. Just a correction, to pre-Covid levels, which would still be epically overpriced based on historical averages.

Submitted by JPJones on March 2, 2022 - 2:33pm.

deadzone wrote:
No surprise, now Google announcing return to the office. Obviously Google and Amazon are the leaders of the Tech industry, the rest of the industry is going to fall in line with them.

Sure there will be some niche workers who continue to remote work forever, and small companies like FLU's where the logistically it makes more sense to remote work perhaps. But from macro scale, the reality is majority of workers are going to have to come in to the office, at least part time.

This is the 3rd time Google has announced a return to the office in the past 10 months. I'm sure they mean it this time, though!

Submitted by deadzone on March 2, 2022 - 2:35pm.

Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.

Submitted by JPJones on March 2, 2022 - 2:52pm.

Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I've had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.

I think even the big kids won't have a huge amount of success going back to how it was pre-covid. Employers are seeing entire teams threatening to resign when push comes to shove, and everyone in my wide circle of IT contacts that wanted to work from home permanently has either had their employer agree to it in writing, or have found another job that is 100% remote and paid more. Working remote is considered part of the overall compensation package now as well, and as long as employees have an edge, we won't see a much of a swing back to in-office work being mandatory.

I worked in IT for 20 years up until 2017 and have never seen the job market this hot, not even during the .dot bubble. My wife decided to shop last fall and had 5 offers with better compensation in writing within the first 2 weeks, all 100% remote, and she never even got around to updating her portfolio. This has been par for the course with everyone I know working in any capacity of IT for the past year, roughly. Even if the market crashes and we head into a recession, I'm not convinced the worker shortage would even be simply offset or less.

Submitted by JPJones on March 2, 2022 - 2:54pm.

deadzone wrote:
Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.

Sure, but when? It's gets kicked around here a lot that predicting the market means getting your timing right. So what timing are you committing to? Or are you just saying 'someday!'?

Submitted by deadzone on March 2, 2022 - 3:05pm.

JPJones wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.

Sure, but when? It's gets kicked around here a lot that predicting the market means getting your timing right. So what timing are you committing to? Or are you just saying 'someday!'?

April seems to be the current goalpost. I don't expect them to move this time, Covid is over.

Submitted by deadzone on March 2, 2022 - 3:32pm.

JPJones wrote:

I think even the big kids won't have a huge amount of success going back to how it was pre-covid. Employers are seeing entire teams threatening to resign when push comes to shove, and everyone in my wide circle of IT contacts that wanted to work from home permanently has either had their employer agree to it in writing, or have found another job that is 100% remote and paid more. Working remote is considered part of the overall compensation package now as well, and as long as employees have an edge, we won't see a much of a swing back to in-office work being mandatory.

I worked in IT for 20 years up until 2017 and have never seen the job market this hot, not even during the .dot bubble. My wife decided to shop last fall and had 5 offers with better compensation in writing within the first 2 weeks, all 100% remote, and she never even got around to updating her portfolio. This has been par for the course with everyone I know working in any capacity of IT for the past year, roughly. Even if the market crashes and we head into a recession, I'm not convinced the worker shortage would even be simply offset or less.

If the market crashes, there will be a lot less tech jobs. So worker shortage problem will be solved.
You can thank the Fed for the fact that the job market is so hot, when they print 4 trillion dollars in the span of 2 years, there's a lot of money laying around to purchase iphones and associated apps. Without the Fed's money spigot, there will be less demand for all of these products and many jobs/companies will disappear into the ether.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 2, 2022 - 3:29pm.

JPJones wrote:
Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I've had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.

I think even the big kids won't have a huge amount of success going back to how it was pre-covid. Employers are seeing entire teams threatening to resign when push comes to shove, and everyone in my wide circle of IT contacts that wanted to work from home permanently has either had their employer agree to it in writing, or have found another job that is 100% remote and paid more. Working remote is considered part of the overall compensation package now as well, and as long as employees have an edge, we won't see a much of a swing back to in-office work being mandatory.

I worked in IT for 20 years up until 2017 and have never seen the job market this hot, not even during the .dot bubble. My wife decided to shop last fall and had 5 offers with better compensation in writing within the first 2 weeks, all 100% remote, and she never even got around to updating her portfolio. This has been par for the course with everyone I know working in any capacity of IT for the past year, roughly. Even if the market crashes and we head into a recession, I'm not convinced the worker shortage would even be simply offset or less.

I Get reports from one of the big players in commercial. Just got 2022 office outlook for 46 US markets. PM me if you want a copy

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 2, 2022 - 3:37pm.

IMO I don't think I will see another USA recession in my lifetime.

Or at least the next 8-10 years.

Submitted by an on March 2, 2022 - 4:08pm.

JPJones wrote:
Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I've had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.
My old company went fully remote mid 2020 and never looked back. Sub-leased their office and have grown dramatically over the last year and a half. With their work force everywhere in the world now AND several people I know who still work there have moved to other city/state, I don't see them changing course and firing anyone.

Submitted by JPJones on March 2, 2022 - 5:11pm.

an wrote:
JPJones wrote:
Hey slight tangent, do any of you watch commercial real estate? Relevant to this topic, I've had a decent number of friends and former colleagues mention their companies either sold or let their office leases expire to go permanently remote.
My old company went fully remote mid 2020 and never looked back. Sub-leased their office and have grown dramatically over the last year and a half. With their work force everywhere in the world now AND several people I know who still work there have moved to other city/state, I don't see them changing course and firing anyone.

Same with my wife's old company. The counterpoint to deadzone's claim that 'they'll just hire from India now' is that she's now working for an Australian company, so that door swings both ways. My personal feeling from the tech industry in general is most businesses are now wise to the loss in quality and productivity that comes from hiring from cheaper countries, and they're hiring practices have changed accordingly.

Submitted by JPJones on March 2, 2022 - 5:18pm.

deadzone wrote:
JPJones wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Looks like they mean it this time. Either way, return to work is going to happen, sooner or later. It is as inevitable as the sun rising.

Sure, but when? It's gets kicked around here a lot that predicting the market means getting your timing right. So what timing are you committing to? Or are you just saying 'someday!'?

April seems to be the current goalpost. I don't expect them to move this time, Covid is over.

They've already given themselves and out by saying "most workers". I bet Google backpedals from their current 'in office 3 days/week' position by the April 4th deadline. Winner gets bragging rights.

Submitted by deadzone on March 2, 2022 - 5:45pm.

All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don't agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn't change that fact.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 2, 2022 - 6:45pm.

Im as wealthy as Jeff Bezos to some degree or another.

Submitted by Coronita on March 2, 2022 - 7:19pm.

deadzone wrote:
All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don't agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn't change that fact.

Lol, you keep debating yourself. No one ever said all companies would stay remote forever. But just because some companies (which tend to be the big companies) have some hybrid work model (which the ones that have announced are hybrid... 2-3 days in office), doesn't change the fact that there are still many companies that are remote first. Many of them are public companies like mine with 500+ employees.

Also, going into the office in a hybrid model for these companies means "reporting to any location". For practical purposes, most of these larger companies already have presence here in SD and LA in addition to Bay Area. So if you're expecting a mass exodus from san diego tech workers to make housing more affordable... Good luck there...

Submitted by JPJones on March 2, 2022 - 8:51pm.

deadzone wrote:
All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don't agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn't change that fact.

So is that a no or...?

Submitted by an on March 2, 2022 - 9:33pm.

deadzone wrote:
All the big companies are going back to the office to some degree or another. Just because you don't agree with it, or your little po-dunk companies are fully remote, doesn't change that fact.

I guess Meta is not big.

Twilio with 5-10k employees is not big. Twitter with 1-5k employees is not big. ZenDesk with 1-5k employee is not big, SquareSpace with 1-5k employee is not big, Oracle with 10k+ employees is not big, DocuSign with 5-10k employee is not big, VMWare with 10k+ employees is not big, I can go on and on. You can easily do a search on LinkedIn for Director Of Engineering and filter for only Remote (LinkedIn have this filter now, shows you where the demand is at) and you'll see 40 pages of jobs open today that's 100% remote.

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