San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
August 2014 Housing Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 17, 2014 - 1:03pm
Here it is in a nutshell:
Charts and some thoughts below...
Single family home prices dropped pretty hard for the month, but this only really offsets the big jump from May to June. If you look back to 3 months ago, there was some intervening "noise" in the form of a blip up and then eventually back down, but point to point, it represents a very mild uptrend -- which is more what would be expected given the rising trend in supply vs. demand.
So, last month's decline is no more meaningful than the rather abrupt rise a few months back. The underlying trend (up until last month anyway) has been that of a mild increase in prices.
This trend is a little more evident in the estimate of the Case-Shiller index, though even that has experienced a bit of noise:
Moving on to demand, close sales continue to be quite weak compared to last year:
Pending sales are below last year, but not by nearly as much... I'm not sure the reason for this discrepancy, but I'd assume that the two will converge at some point.
Inventory has continued its rising trend, with active inventory growing even faster as contingent listings become less and less of a thing.
Putting supply and demand together, months of inventory (and more so, months of active inventory) have continued their rising trend:
The trend may be towards more inventory, but on an absolute basis, months of inventory still seems to be at a level that would encourage price mild increases for now:
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