Are we poised for yet another irrational exuberance?

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Submitted by tech_junkie on May 2, 2007 - 8:08am

So I was talking to my financial advisor a few days ago. It's his opinion that aside from the housing market collapsing, that another spending wave from the baby boomer generation is about to begin and will carry the stock markets for large gains the next 2-3 years. 2010 is when he is suggesting to pull out of the stock market....

Agree or disagree?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 2, 2007 - 8:17am.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Spending from retiring Boomers ????

Don't see it, increased savings maybe but not spending.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 2, 2007 - 8:21am.

Think wealth transfer. I dont know what the impact will be but it seems like I speak with a boomer client ior friend every week that has aging parents in failing health. The amount of liquid assets about to dumped in boomers pockets over the next 10 years is staggering.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 2, 2007 - 8:28am.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Wealth transfer ?? Maybe,

If real-estate prices were to hold, (or they pass on before this crash really get going and are able to cash out before the stuff hits the fan).

About the only thing on my radar, is one of these new Ultra cheap gas sipping car's all the car manufactures are scrambling to introduce before the other guy's take the market .
Even if I get a windfall

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 2, 2007 - 8:48am.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Based on my Gas Begging indicator, (was hit up twice this week for gas money) , I don't see a big spending spree in the near future.

Submitted by SD Realtor on May 2, 2007 - 11:14am.

There is merit in what you say. I have heard similar comments from my advisors and from others that agree. I guess we will see... There is a certain futures trader who has posted every now and then here who has been quite astute in his predictions of what the market will do and has done in the short term.

SD Realtor

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 2, 2007 - 11:57am.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Most of the boomers I know are stretched thin, with Grown kids Grand kids (baggage), And sometimes Parents living in the same home and on the same expense account.

But I suppose there are lucky ones here and there.

See Master Cards earnings ... Maybe the Housing ATM has run out ???

Submitted by kewp on May 2, 2007 - 3:03pm.

I can see good arguments on both sides of the fence.

On the upside, indeed I've seen lots of boomers with fat 401k's, paid off homes and expiring parents doing fabulously. My parents are a perfect example (despite the emotional pain of losing our beloved grandmother). Other than getting partially screwed by the Lucent pension rip-off, they are getting along fine. Getting a few hundred thou from the recent estate sale is a nice bonus.

The downside is there are lots and lots of boomers that have been forced into early retirement, seen their pensions evaporate and are counting on their home equity & 401k to bail them out. Once these start losing value at the same time (RE is already leading the way) I can easily foresee an avalanche of panic selling.

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