San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 16, 2008 - 4:41pm
Assuming the EDD didn't go too nuts with the birth-death model last month, San Diego's non-housing economy was strong enough to resist the pull of the housing boom beneficiary sectors.
There's a more detailed discussion of the above graph over at voiceofsandiego.org. Below are a couple of pigg-only bonus graphs.
I am indebted to forum user perkowski for suggesting the new approach to graphing job numbers. Instead of graphing the change from a fixed point (e.g. last April), he proposed that I show each month's year-over-year change in order to see the long-term trend but not suffer any seasonal distortions. I agree that this is a much better way to do it and it shows some pretty clear trends: the housing sectors and the overall local economy are trending down, but the non-housing portion of the economy has been quite steady.
The above graph displays the number of jobs gained or lost; the below shows the same sectors but in terms of percent change:
And this next graph shows the housing boom sectors (dark blue, light blue, red) vs. the non-housing boom sectors (all lumped together in green) in their ongoing tug-of-war:
The non-housing economy won the last round, at least according to these preliminary estimates. Even so, a .2 percent employment growth rate is not exactly impressive. It will take a lot more than that to lend much support to the faltering yet still-overvalued housing market.
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