San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
April Case-Shiller Index
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 24, 2008 - 11:04am
It was business as usual for the Case-Shiller Index in April, with a fairly steep 2.6% drop in the overall index comprised of progressively worse performance in each lower-price tier. This time, the high tier was down 1.5%, the middle tier 2.7%, and the low tier 3.5%.
Here is a look at the three tiers since the peak. Notice how I keep having to change the scale on the Y axis each month to accommodate the continued whackage on the low tier:
...and the same thing adjusted for CPI inflation. (I realize that it's better to measure home prices against rents and incomes, but up-to-date rent and income data is harder to come by. I will try to do an update of the price vs. rent and income charts soon).
Here are long term version of the above two charts, highlighting the extent to which lower tier prices became much more out of whack:
And just for giggles approximately the same chart zooming in on this decade.
Incidentally, the 2.6% overall decline in the aggregate index was in the ballpark of the 2.9% drop that had been predicted by my Case-Shiller HPI proxy based on the median price per square foot. The proxy is predicting a much smaller decline of .9% for May. Because the proxy is more volatile than the HPI itself, my guess is that the decline in the HPI will be higher than .9% but perhaps quite a bit lower than it has been in recent months. This will probably prompt some pundits to call another bottom, which will in turn prompt me to laugh heartily and with derision.
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