April 2021 housing data - now it's getting weird

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 16, 2021 - 9:50pm

I'm just going to start with this:



OK, the price per square foot is a somewhat noisy figure. You can't make too much of just one month. With that said... holy mackerel. The single family price/sq ft was up 9% in a single month.

The blue line below shows the much-less-noisy Case-Shiller index. The red is my estimate of the past two months, which is based on the ppsf and thus re-introduces some noise, but here it is for what it's worth:



The story here is much less of demand than of supply. Demand is strong, but nothing out of the ordinary:



Now here's supply... half what it was a year ago, and 1/3 what it was in 2019:



These figures can be combined into months of inventory, which sits just off its all-time (in my data) low:



And as I love to mention, prices in the short term are very heavily influenced by this ratio. As shown in this chart (kind of, because this blowout monthly price number broke my Y axis... just imagine the red line went up to 54%).



I'm hope to follow up soon with some thoughts on what's behind the price increase and how sustainable it is.

A few more random graphs follow...











(category: )

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 10:38am.

Reality wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

is this happening everywhere? No not everywhere but a lot of places but we are hyper local here and I only care what’s happening here. I moved here in 1991. I almost bought a condo right before I left a very nice upscale community back east with demographics not very different than where I live today. that two bedroom two bath condo would’ve cost me about $110,000 and it rented for $1000 a month back then. I looked it up yesterday and 30 years later it goes for about $150,000 and rents for 1500 a month.

Not buying any of this. Where is this place that has appreciated only 36% in 30 years? Fantasyland I say.

$1000 a month rent was A LOT 30 years ago, even here. That's nonsensical.

https://www.redfin.com/NJ/Cherry-Hill/40...

Rent is from memory and may have been $800 but close enough and I think it was around $1000. My hometown. These were around 60k when new in 84 and rates were in mid teens. By early 90's rates were down and they were low 100s. Now they are 150k.

One mile down the road is my high school. I graduated with about 825 students. I'd estimate 100 went on to ivy league schools. Well over 90% to 4 year colleges. My neighbors were all doctors, lawyers, business owners, RCA engineers, professional athletes etc. Muhammad Ali lived there and used to show up at our little League games. Regularly ran into Phillies, Eagles, Flyers and Sixers. Have autographs to prove it. One of my neighbors and childhood friends is married to Biden's daughter now. It's a very real place. Median HH income is about 110k currently. That's 10% higher than where I live now in 92009. I'd say Go back in your house but you failed to capitalize on the opportunity of a lifetime so I'll just say go back in your hole

Submitted by Andrew32 on May 19, 2021 - 10:46am.

Cherry Hill East is a good area. My brother lives nearby in Delanco. 2/2 1,000sq ft. townhome built in 2007 he moved into new for under 100k. Just looked and they go for 150k now. He's right on the Delaware river and schools are good.

My parent's 4/2.5 2100sq ft. home on 1+ acre outside of Princeton was purchased for 207k in 1986 when mortgage rates were 12%!

Comps on their street are 500k-550k. Top public schools that everyone wants in on.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 11:01am.

Yup, five of my friends went to Princeton. A handful to Harvard. Over 30 to Penn, might have been 50+. Sent kids to every ivy. CHE was and still is amazing school.

Parents bought in 64 for 27k. Sold in 88 for 220k. It resold in 01 for the same. Now maybe 400k, maybe. Houses did better than condos but still not compared to inflation and annual maintenance is much higher there

Submitted by Andrew32 on May 19, 2021 - 11:03am.

My high school basketball team played at CHE when I was on the team in the early 2000s and I remember seeing dozens of swimming state championship banners hanging. Their basketball team was very good then as well.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 11:47am.

One of the greatest high school games of all time was my Sr year against our arch rivals in Camden we could never beat. We were #2 to them locally and they were #1 nationally also. Two guys on the Camden team went on to play for the Lakers. It was in the early days of cable and the first time they got to play on TV. It was like a slam dunk contest for them

That Camden team went to state finals and was upset by Neptune at Jadwin gym in Princeton. They filled the aisles and standing room to the court sides. I was there and it was insanity. Amazing memory of mine

Submitted by deadzone on May 19, 2021 - 11:10am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I'd estimate 100 went on to ivy league schools. Well over 90% to 4 year colleges. My neighbors were all doctors, lawyers, business owners, RCA engineers, professional athletes etc.

Wow, brag much SDR? What ivy league school did you get your Psychology degree from?

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 11:18am.

Coming from the biggest loser here that means little. All you have is ad hominem attacks. So sad. He called my post nonsense and fantasy, I proved otherwise with hard facts and data. Everything I post I can verify. Oh and no ivy for me. Graduated from Rutgers undergraduate school of business with double major in accounting and economics

Submitted by deadzone on May 19, 2021 - 12:21pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Coming from the biggest loser here that means little. All you have is ad hominem attacks. So sad. He called my post nonsense and fantasy, I proved otherwise with hard facts and data. Everything I post I can verify. Oh and no ivy for me. Graduated from Rutgers undergraduate school of business with double major in accounting and economics

It is both amusing and pathetic to watch you continue to repeat the same behavior when anyone on this board calls you out.
1. go off on some tangent to include healthy dose of bragging and patting yourself on the back.
2. Use a healthy dose of tired cliches (strawman, ad hominem, "opportunity of a lifetime", etc)
3. Culminate with some sort of insult, attack or generally mean-spirited response ("Loser", "Get Back in your Hole").

It is interesting to note that when Rich called out your BS multiple times recently you never responded or if you did, you responded with a whimper.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 12:39pm.

Actually I answered all of Rich's questions thoroughly and respectfully as I always do. I clarified and provided data as I always do. Just like I do for pretty much everyone else but you and your permabear buddy reality. You need to follow closer.

The funny part is you amuse me. We have been doing this dance every once in a while for 15 years. You have yet to claim a single victory. You have quite literally been wrong every.... single... time. Please show me a single time we have gone head to head where you were right? Im just calling a spade a spade. You have never been a winner. Not once LOL

Submitted by deadzone on May 19, 2021 - 1:45pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Actually I answered all of Rich's questions thoroughly and respectfully as I always do. I clarified and provided data as I always do. Just like I do for pretty much everyone else but you and your permabear buddy reality. You need to follow closer.

The funny part is you amuse me. We have been doing this dance every once in a while for 15 years. You have yet to claim a single victory. You have quite literally been wrong every.... single... time. Please show me a single time we have gone head to head where you were right? Im just calling a spade a spade. You have never been a winner. Not once LOL

I didn't realize we were in a competition. But if there is a competition for all time biggest douche on Piggington, you get first prize hands down! So you can congratulate yourself on that among all of the other awards that you have given to yourself.

Submitted by deadzone on May 19, 2021 - 1:45pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Actually I answered all of Rich's questions thoroughly and respectfully as I always do. I clarified and provided data as I always do. Just like I do for pretty much everyone else but you and your permabear buddy reality. You need to follow closer.

The funny part is you amuse me. We have been doing this dance every once in a while for 15 years. You have yet to claim a single victory. You have quite literally been wrong every.... single... time. Please show me a single time we have gone head to head where you were right? Im just calling a spade a spade. You have never been a winner. Not once LOL

I didn't realize we were in a competition. But if there is a competition for all time biggest douche on Piggington, you get first prize hands down! So you can congratulate yourself on that among all of the other awards that you have given to yourself.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 2:40pm.

Duly noted

Submitted by davidp10 on May 19, 2021 - 9:04pm.

I'm new here but I just want to say, you guys (sdrealtor & deadzone) are the best. I know you maybe got a little heated in conversation but I've been cracking up the whole time while getting valuable insight/opinions from both.

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 8:58am.

davidp10 wrote:
I'm new here but I just want to say, you guys (sdrealtor & deadzone) are the best. I know you maybe got a little heated in conversation but I've been cracking up the whole time while getting valuable insight/opinions from both.

Glad to be of service, maybe me and sdr should take our show on the road. But seriously you make an important point, having differing opinions and perspectives is key or else this site would be worthless.

Submitted by gzz on May 20, 2021 - 1:54pm.

33% YoY, wow I'm rich. Why did I show up to work today when it appears my homes are going up in value by $10k+ daily?

Lots of nohouser FUD in this thread. You'll feel better if you JOIN US. If only you knew a San Diego-area realtor!

Submitted by Reality on May 20, 2021 - 11:41pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Reality wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

is this happening everywhere? No not everywhere but a lot of places but we are hyper local here and I only care what’s happening here. I moved here in 1991. I almost bought a condo right before I left a very nice upscale community back east with demographics not very different than where I live today. that two bedroom two bath condo would’ve cost me about $110,000 and it rented for $1000 a month back then. I looked it up yesterday and 30 years later it goes for about $150,000 and rents for 1500 a month.

Not buying any of this. Where is this place that has appreciated only 36% in 30 years? Fantasyland I say.

$1000 a month rent was A LOT 30 years ago, even here. That's nonsensical.

https://www.redfin.com/NJ/Cherry-Hill/40...

Rent is from memory and may have been $800 but close enough and I think it was around $1000. My hometown. These were around 60k when new in 84 and rates were in mid teens. By early 90's rates were down and they were low 100s. Now they are 150k.

One mile down the road is my high school. I graduated with about 825 students. I'd estimate 100 went on to ivy league schools. Well over 90% to 4 year colleges. My neighbors were all doctors, lawyers, business owners, RCA engineers, professional athletes etc. Muhammad Ali lived there and used to show up at our little League games. Regularly ran into Phillies, Eagles, Flyers and Sixers. Have autographs to prove it. One of my neighbors and childhood friends is married to Biden's daughter now. It's a very real place. Median HH income is about 110k currently. That's 10% higher than where I live now in 92009. I'd say Go back in your house but you failed to capitalize on the opportunity of a lifetime so I'll just say go back in your hole

That one doesn't show any real old sales except 1984.

This one sold for 73k in 1992 now on the market for 165k. A bit more than double and now the rent went from 800-1500 per your latest estimation.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1814-...

I'm bullish on real estate in general, especially in CA, but you'll never convince me that what's happened in the last year is anything but a Fed ignited bubble that's nationwide.

Also no need to hurl insults and BTW the opportunity of a lifetime was the 1990s.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 21, 2021 - 6:12am.

Different complex. It's Woods 2, I was looking at Woods 1. Those are bigger and nicer location. They sell for more and the 165k price today is why it's higher. As for the 1992 price I am certain that is an outlier. I remember there was a fire there around them and that could be one of the impacted units. Whatever the case it was not representative of general market back then.

No one is disputing low rates are fueling this. I'm hoping for higher rates as they are only thing that can get this under control. What is being disputed is that what is happening here is happening everywhere. It's not. Our market is an outlier relative to most of the country.

And I bought two properties here in the late 90s. Yes it was a great opportunity but rates were much higher and it wasn't obvious how good it was. In the period from 2009-2011, rates were lower, deals were to be found everywhere and it was obvious where we would be going in several years. We had already been there. So I still think that was the opportunity of a lifetime and I was active in both markets

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 8:59am.

sdrealtor wrote:

What is being disputed is that what is happening here is happening everywhere. It's not. Our market is an outlier relative to most of the country.

Bullcrap, National Case Shiller is up 12% in the last year. Yes San Diego is a bit higher than that, as Coastal/warm cities always have more desirability factor. But clearly this is a national phenomenon. There are record prices, bidding wars, etc. in cities all over the Country. Try spending a little more time researching other areas and less time trying to enforce your authority on this blog.

Submitted by gzz on May 21, 2021 - 10:13am.

Phoenix metro is also up 33% YoY.

https://armls.com/docs/sold-list-chart.pdf

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 10:53am.

gzz wrote:
Phoenix metro is also up 33% YoY.

https://armls.com/docs/sold-list-chart.pdf

Not possible, I don't believe it. SDR assured me this is strictly a San Diego phenomenon.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 21, 2021 - 10:58am.

Liar. I said most of the country. Phoenix is #1 and SD is #2 and should be #1 soon. Stop making sh*t up in your parents garage studio apartment

Submitted by pinkflamingo on May 21, 2021 - 11:04am.

Even Utah housing is up 23%. Bidding wars. No clement weather, no beaches yet same housing shortage.

https://www.deseret.com/2021/5/13/224124...

Seattle? Texas? SD doesn't seem to be an outlier.

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 11:18am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Liar. I said most of the country. Phoenix is #1 and SD is #2 and should be #1 soon. Stop making sh*t up in your parents garage studio apartment

Actually I am in my home office looking out over the ocean view as I type this.

You stop making sh*t up. And stop arguing for arguments sake. Folks on this site are starting to tire of your BS.

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 12:09pm.

pinkflamingo wrote:
Even Utah housing is up 23%. Bidding wars. No clement weather, no beaches yet same housing shortage.

https://www.deseret.com/2021/5/13/224124...

Seattle? Texas? SD doesn't seem to be an outlier.

Hey you better stop lying or sdr is going to get angry at you.

Submitted by gzz on May 21, 2021 - 2:27pm.

Even Utah housing is up 23%.

That's the Q1 YoY figure. Rich's SD figure and my Phoenix figure are April 2021 YoY numbers.

At least in the case for San Diego, this makes a difference. Rich's Feb figure was up 19%, so that's more of an apples-to-apples comparison with the Utah Q12020 to Q12021 figure. Though I note the 23% was a smaller exurban county, and Salt Lake Co was up 17%.

The national figure for April YoY is 19.1%:

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existin...

While it might feel good to think SD is uniquely strong, the bull market covering most of the USA is a very positive thing, since it means that our price increases are not making competing markets relatively good values.

The average Phoenix metro house is now about 500k, WOW. Sure SD homeowners can always get a better valuing moving to the desert, but it wasn't long ago a newer 5-bedroom mcmansion with pool in Scottsdale was $350k!

Now here's what $950k gets you. Not bad, but hardly a lux palace worth uprooting yourself for either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13059...

Submitted by andymajumder on May 21, 2021 - 3:09pm.

Now here's what $950k gets you. Not bad, but hardly a lux palace worth uprooting yourself for either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13059...

Interesting... that house sold for ~478K summer of 2018, listed for 950K now, 100% gain in 3 yrs. If this isn't a bubble, not sure what would account for bubble.

Submitted by gzz on May 21, 2021 - 3:39pm.

Andy, while Phoenix went up big lately, I noticed a few places below 2006 prices. In SD we're way above that.

A fun graph would be San Diego median price as a % of other major cities. No nominal prices or price changes, only price ratios between cities.

I felt like from about 2015-2019, SD was under-performing peer markets, so we're due some monster gains around now.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 21, 2021 - 4:54pm.

Just got out my weekly webinar with a socal housing economist I follow. Here's something that stood out. New listings hitting the market are way down vis a vis the 5 yr average and its getting worse.

In the first 2 weeks of May we are down 19% on new homes hitting the market in the 5 county SoCal market when compared to the 5 yr average. Those figures by county range from a low of down 14% in LA County to a high of down 24% in SD County. Even in SoCal its worse here than the other socal submarkets.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 21, 2021 - 4:52pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Liar. I said most of the country. Phoenix is #1 and SD is #2 and should be #1 soon. Stop making sh*t up in your parents garage studio apartment

Actually I am in my home office looking out over the ocean view as I type this.

You stop making sh*t up. And stop arguing for arguments sake. Folks on this site are starting to tire of your BS.

Picture or its another lie

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