San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
April 2021 housing data - now it's getting weird
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 16, 2021 - 9:50pm
I'm just going to start with this:
OK, the price per square foot is a somewhat noisy figure. You can't make too much of just one month. With that said... holy mackerel. The single family price/sq ft was up 9% in a single month.
The blue line below shows the much-less-noisy Case-Shiller index. The red is my estimate of the past two months, which is based on the ppsf and thus re-introduces some noise, but here it is for what it's worth:
The story here is much less of demand than of supply. Demand is strong, but nothing out of the ordinary:
Now here's supply... half what it was a year ago, and 1/3 what it was in 2019:
These figures can be combined into months of inventory, which sits just off its all-time (in my data) low:
And as I love to mention, prices in the short term are very heavily influenced by this ratio. As shown in this chart (kind of, because this blowout monthly price number broke my Y axis... just imagine the red line went up to 54%).
I'm hope to follow up soon with some thoughts on what's behind the price increase and how sustainable it is.
A few more random graphs follow...
~Active forum topics~