April 2019 resale data: the rebound continues

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 12, 2019 - 3:11pm

April was another strong month, as prices firmed up further and months of inventory decreased. This latter point is best illustrated on a graph that compares monthly changes... note how late last year -- take December for instance -- inventory was much higher than a year earlier. Now, it is only slightly higher than the year-ago level:

The 3-month average of single family price/square foot also rose again, and prices appear to be nearing last year's peak:

Despite this, the year-over-year price comparison weakened, because April 2018 was a tougher month to compare against. (The peak for this series was in June, so comparisons will continue to get tougher for a couple months):

Here's months of inventory and price changes. This level of inventory implies further price rises, should it remain near this level.

For some thoughts on why things turned around so much, and what might put the rebound at risk, see last month's writeup. More graphs below:

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Submitted by phaster on May 15, 2019 - 7:37am.

interesting, "April was another strong month, as prices firmed up further and months of inventory decreased."

no doubt there is staying power in the SD region, but as I've said before I just wonder how long the local party can continue when one looks at the bigger picture,...


Schwab Modern Wealth Index Survey 2019

...an annual examination of how 1,000 Americans think about saving, spending, investing and wealth.

...59 percent of Americans consider themselves to be savers, and 65 percent say they’re willing to sacrifice spending money on experiences now to save money for later in life.

- A majority (59 percent) live paycheck to paycheck

- Nearly half (44 percent) typically carry a credit card balance

- Only 38 percent have built up an emergency fund

...According to the survey, Americans believe it takes an average $2.3 million in personal net worth to be considered “wealthy.” That’s more than 20 times the actual median net worth of U.S. households, according to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances released in 2017.

...The online survey was conducted by Logica Research from February 8 to February 17, 2019, among a national sample of Americans aged 21 to 75 and an augment sample of 200 older Gen Zers aged 18-22 for generational comparisons. The national sample was balanced to be demographically representative. The margin of error for the national sample is three percentage points.


actually I think it would be interesting if there was a local survey of what 1000 random SD residents thought about what $$$ amount of net worth defines an individual to be "wealthy"

Submitted by gzz on May 23, 2019 - 5:52pm.

Rates just hit a new low! Lowest since Sept 2017.

By the beach, both sales and new listings are coming in at a decent pace. I’m excited to see some comp-beating recent sales. The 1 to 2 million bucket in 92107 is really moving the past month.

I am going to respond to Rich’s interesting rate comment from last month BTW, been swamped lately.

Submitted by gzz on May 30, 2019 - 5:17pm.

92107 had 11 sales in Jan 2019 and 9 in Feb 2019.

May 1-29 has 26 sales so far, and may have a few more before the month ends.

The newest few listings look a little aggressively priced. Can’t wait to see if that slows down this pace or not.

Low rates are great for both buyers and sellers. This week marks a new 1 year low in rates and we’re only about 0.15% above the two-year low.

Also, rate curve is ultra-flat: ARM, 10, 15, and 30 year mortgages are virtually the same 3.4-3.75% range for prime borrowers.

Submitted by gzz on June 19, 2019 - 5:34pm.

So far 92107 June sales are at a cooler rate a little below 3 month supply.

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