98.7 perc riverside icu beds full today

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Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 30, 2020 - 7:49am

Alarming.

I wear a mask and plastic shield out and about nowadays

Submitted by svelte on June 30, 2020 - 8:52am.

Can't say I'm surprised. When we went to Temecula virtually no one was wearing a mask.

If you're wearing a mask and shield, you'll be easy to recognize!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 30, 2020 - 9:03am.

im the only one double deckered

Submitted by Coronita on June 30, 2020 - 9:25am.

Things are bad in Florida right now. My company is headquartered there, we are a small company, and each day, there is a email that goes about about someone taking medical leave due to covid. The latest was a PM that got infected, along with 20 family/relative members, I think because they decided to do a summer get together, and one person was infected and asymptotic

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 30, 2020 - 9:56am.

Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-...

Submitted by svelte on June 30, 2020 - 9:57am.

Coronita wrote:
Things are bad in Florida right now. My company is headquartered there, we are a small company, and each day, there is a email that goes about about someone taking medical leave due to covid. The latest was a PM that got infected, along with 20 family/relative members, I think because they decided to do a summer get together, and one person was infected and asymptotic

I thought states opening was a good idea, but that was under the assumption everyone would wear masks.

Since folks aren't doing that in many areas, especially when around family, it is probably a good idea to shut back down.

My family in Northern CA went through similar...they were starting to hold gatherings then one person got it and all family gatherings are now canceled. Luckily that one person didn't spread it to the rest of the family as near as we can tell. We got lucky.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 30, 2020 - 10:02am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584

LIKE A MIRACLE, IT WILL GO AWAY.

article itself says that it is "speculation", based on some pretty loose array of facts.

but i guess it's possible. it does seem to be spreading in weird ways with different levels of mortality.

i doubt it though

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 30, 2020 - 10:41am.

Found out Sunday night my beloved big sister (62) tested positive. She's a Child and Family Case Social worker at a hospital in rural Northeastern AZ. Nicest person on the planet , Ive never heard her utter a single ill word about anyone ever.

She's the universe's way of apologizing for PITA that is me. She has history of an immunodeficiency incident that occured about 10 years ago. She's asymptomatic but if she comes down with a serious case it would be problematic. Her husband is a recent cancer survivor and would not fare well either.

Think you cant get it? Think everyone wearing a mask even if it has a chance of helping is unecessary?

They live on over 50 acres in a town with a census listed population of 38 people (Concho, AZ). They have been wearing masks when out which is rare and social distancing is pretty much a way of life for them. She recently went back to work at the regional hospital and was exposed through a co-worker despite taking precautions.

If that’s not a wake up call that this can impact anyone anywhere I don’t know what it is?

No symptoms yet and hopefully stays that way. Gonna be a tough couple weeks for me. I havent seen her since last Summer when she stayed with me for our mother's final days. Id hate that to be the last time I saw her :(

Submitted by outtamojo on June 30, 2020 - 11:15am.

If your sister is immunocompromised/high risk she could ask her doctor about possibly doing the convalescent plasma treatment as a prophylaxis. I dont know about it's availability in AZ but in Ca. it is available.

Eating a meal in a small breakroom next to an asymptomatic coworker is the biggest weak link in the whole masking scheme imo.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 30, 2020 - 11:24am.

IMO Family gatherings are highest risk.

Studies say you’re more likely to get coronavirus from family than strangers

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/05/15/cor...

Walking on beach probably fairly low risk.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 30, 2020 - 11:32am.

No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

Submitted by Coronita on June 30, 2020 - 11:37am.

The environment we are in is almost a perfect storm for getting taken out. Social unrest, economic unrest, chaotic government.

I don't see us finding a vaccine. I think this is probably a Darwin selection process in the making....

I keep saying, take care of yourself and your loved ones. Nothing is really that serious and no amount of money will help if you're dead.

We just got to survive the rest of 2020... that's it.

Submitted by barnaby33 on June 30, 2020 - 11:35am.

We're all going to get this, full stop. Herd immunity is the only known cure. I hate to sound like a dick as I have no wish for anyone to be ill. However with no cure and no real treatment on the horizon the absolute best we can hope for is to keep our hospital system and most vulnerable protected while the rest of us get it.

Think I'm wrong, great! Show me the path to a cure, please!

That being said, any region with 98.7% of it's ICU full should be locked back down and hard.
Josh

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 30, 2020 - 11:47am.

IMO hard lock downs (other than Bars and party type places) unlikely at this point.

IMO closing beaches does little good.

Submitted by spdrun on June 30, 2020 - 11:51am.

Meanwhile, we're down to 0.7 hospital admissions per day per 100k people in NYC - about 50-60 per day, with ICU cases being only about 10% of that. Despite protests, people "hanging out" outdoors, businesses reopening (legally and otherwise).

Actual scientists have been saying that the risk of outdoor transmission is next to zero for months now ... beaches should remain open so people have a safe(r) place to do fun stuff and socialize.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 30, 2020 - 11:55am.

barnaby33 wrote:
We're all going to get this, full stop. Herd immunity is the only known cure. I hate to sound like a dick as I have no wish for anyone to be ill. However with no cure and no real treatment on the horizon the absolute best we can hope for is to keep our hospital system and most vulnerable protected while the rest of us get it.

Think I'm wrong, great! Show me the path to a cure, please!

That being said, any region with 98.7% of it's ICU full should be locked back down and hard.
Josh

i have been thinking this way. might have been better in retrospect to get it early, when there were plentiful icu beds.

im feeling more vulnerable than usual right now because i recently developed a growth on my foot, benign, but annoying. it's not going to kill me, but it is a sign that my time is limited, getting a somewhat rare condition of the middle aged than can progress is the kind of thing that makes you think, huh, maybe i will not live forever... maybe excessive walking stimulated it to be there. unknown etiology.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 30, 2020 - 11:58am.

spdrun wrote:
Meanwhile, we're down to 0.7 hospital admissions per day per 100k people in NYC - about 50-60 per day, with ICU cases being only about 10% of that. Despite protests, people "hanging out" outdoors, businesses reopening (legally and otherwise).

Actual scientists have been saying that the risk of outdoor transmission is next to zero for months now ... beaches should remain open so people have a safe(r) place to do fun stuff and socialize.

IMO NY probably reaching the burn out phase same for southern Europe and Sweden.

Submitted by zk on June 30, 2020 - 12:00pm.

barnaby33 wrote:
We're all going to get this, full stop. Herd immunity is the only known cure. I hate to sound like a dick as I have no wish for anyone to be ill. However with no cure and no real treatment on the horizon the absolute best we can hope for is to keep our hospital system and most vulnerable protected while the rest of us get it.

Think I'm wrong, great! Show me the path to a cure, please!

That being said, any region with 98.7% of it's ICU full should be locked back down and hard.
Josh

What makes you so convinced that a vaccine won't happen?

Submitted by outtamojo on June 30, 2020 - 12:42pm.

Coronita wrote:
The environment we are in is almost a perfect storm for getting taken out. Social unrest, economic unrest, chaotic government.

I don't see us finding a vaccine. I think this is probably a Darwin selection process in the making....

I keep saying, take care of yourself and your loved ones. Nothing is really that serious and no amount of money will help if you're dead.

We just got to survive the rest of 2020... that's it.

We have just shown hostile actors how to take down America. Wont work with the E.U, Asian nations and others but will work perfectly here.

The N. Koreas, Irans, Russians most likely bumping up their bio weapon budgets.

Submitted by carlsbadworker on June 30, 2020 - 12:53pm.

Just want to point out that from the bright side, the group of people who don't wear the mask today are going to be the same group of people who will refuse to get vaccinated when the COVID vaccine comes out. So if you want to pick up a time for them to get immunity, now is most likely the best time.

Submitted by barnaby33 on June 30, 2020 - 1:29pm.

What makes you so convinced that a vaccine won't happen?

Good question! I have two points to make as an answer. First how many viruses have we cured? The answer is very few, almost zero. A good writeup is from here:

The reasons involve biology and, to a lesser extent, money. Drug companies have developed treatments for a handful of viruses in the last few decades, such as HIV and the flu, but the arsenal is minimal when compared with all the antibiotics we have for treating bacteria. Remember that viruses are not bacteria, so antibiotics are no help.

The main difficulty is that viruses are technically not alive, instead depending on the "machinery" inside human cells to reproduce, said Zachary A. Klase, associate professor of biology at the University of the Sciences. So a drug that targets any part of that parasitic cycle could harm the patient in the process.

"You want something that targets the sickness and not you," he said. "You need to look for the special things that only the virus is doing."

Second is that even if a researcher today identified exactly how to block transmission or reproduction of the virus it takes a long time to weaponize it. Only in movies and even then needing a montage, is a cure or a weapon developed in short order. It takes a long time, measured in years to produce, distribute and administer a treatment or cure. Given those two data points alone it would be nothing short of the second coming of Jeebus if a cure arrived before herd immunity. It's not impossible it's just not probable.

Given that all the fractured news we have focusing on infection rates and with the none-too-subtle subtext of how awful this is are way off the mark. The messaging needs to be, heard immunity is the goal, here are the effective strategies to preserve as much life as we can while developing it and infections especially asymptomatic ones are a good thing for the population as a whole.
Josh

Submitted by spdrun on June 30, 2020 - 1:51pm.

^^^

you don't need a perfect cure like in the movies. Even a combination of existing treatments that reduces death rate by 90% and reduces hospitalization time by 50-75% would be a wonderful thing.

Even a vaccine that's 50% effective would put a big dent in COVID transmission and allow fairly mild measures (basic hygiene, masks) to do the rest. The herd immunity threshold isn't fixed -- it's dependent on culture and behaviour.

Herd immunity is the unspoken goal (Newsom has discussed it), but the interim goal is not to have a high death rate or to overwhelm hospitals. If hospitals are at risk of overload like in Riverside and Imperial Counties, then temporary measures need to be taken to reduce transmission.

Oh, and wear your damn masks, people. If we can reduce transmission via fairly non-intrusive technology like masks, it reduces the need for other, more unpleasant, social distancing measures.

Submitted by barnaby33 on June 30, 2020 - 2:16pm.

Herd immunity isn't fixed, you're right. We don't even know for certain if it exists with Covid-19. Lard help us all if there isn't any such thing.
Josh

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 30, 2020 - 2:23pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
IMO Family gatherings are highest risk.

Studies say you’re more likely to get coronavirus from family than strangers

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/05/15/cor...

Walking on beach probably fairly low risk.

Only because thats who you spend most of your time close to. Spend time near strangers and I doubt the risk is lower

Submitted by zk on June 30, 2020 - 2:47pm.

barnaby33 wrote:

What makes you so convinced that a vaccine won't happen?

Good question! I have two points to make as an answer. First how many viruses have we cured? The answer is very few, almost zero.


I asked about a vaccine and you answered about a cure. Not the same thing.

The reasons involve biology and, to a lesser extent, money. Drug companies have developed treatments for a handful of viruses in the last few decades, such as HIV and the flu, but the arsenal is minimal when compared with all the antibiotics we have for treating bacteria. Remember that viruses are not bacteria, so antibiotics are no help.

The main difficulty is that viruses are technically not alive, instead depending on the "machinery" inside human cells to reproduce, said Zachary A. Klase, associate professor of biology at the University of the Sciences. So a drug that targets any part of that parasitic cycle could harm the patient in the process.

"You want something that targets the sickness and not you," he said. "You need to look for the special things that only the virus is doing."

More talk about treatments and cures. Not the same thing.

barnaby33 wrote:

Second is that even if a researcher today identified exactly how to block transmission or reproduction of the virus it takes a long time to weaponize it. Only in movies and even then needing a montage, is a cure or a weapon developed in short order. It takes a long time, measured in years to produce, distribute and administer a treatment or cure. Given those two data points alone it would be nothing short of the second coming of Jeebus if a cure arrived before herd immunity. It's not impossible it's just not probable.

It does generally take years. But the process can be expedited to some degree, and it will be if the situation is urgent enough. Which this situation is. Also, new technologies are showing promise for faster vaccine development, although clinical trials will require time regardless of technology. Running clinical trials in parallel is expensive, but saves time. In this case there are quite a few being run at the same time.

Some of the more important viruses for which we have developed a vaccine:

Polio
Smallpox
Rubella
Measles
Rotavirus
Chickenpox

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 30, 2020 - 3:01pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Only because thats who you spend most of your time close to. Spend time near strangers and I doubt the risk is lower

I think that is the whole point (we don't spend much time with strangers).
But I do understand your point as well in the case of your sister.

Just wear a mask when close proximity (indoors especially), wash your hands, self isolate if you feel vulnerable.

Tell your extended family to stay away for now.

BTW China is now using/distributing a vaccine (mostly for its own military, but there are some civilian as well).
I guess they think it works.

Submitted by svelte on June 30, 2020 - 6:01pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
IMO Family gatherings are highest risk.

Studies say you’re more likely to get coronavirus from family than strangers

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/05/15/cor...

Walking on beach probably fairly low risk.

Only because thats who you spend most of your time close to. Spend time near strangers and I doubt the risk is lower

yeah its like that old statistic that most car accidents happen within (x) miles of your house...that's because thats where people do most of their driving!

My son was telling me it's not only who you come in contact with, but for how long...risk goes up with length of time. Sounds true to me. Which may also explain why getting it from family members is becoming common.

Submitted by TeCKis300 on June 30, 2020 - 6:43pm.

Not disagreeing.

But there is a big difference between moderating and controlling the rate at which this takes place

versus

let's all throw caution to the wind because we're all going to get it and party up.

Difference is time. Time provides humanity opportunity to better understand the virus and mitigate its impacts. Time will show us more effective strategies for prophylactics, treatments, and potentially cures.

I would rather my vulnerable family members or myself get sick, when there are more options.

Unfortunately, its a community decision with the lowest common denominator dictating the primary trajectory.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 30, 2020 - 7:13pm.

Riverside bars just closed down.

Submitted by outtamojo on June 30, 2020 - 11:41pm.

AZ just activated its crisis standard of care plan aka healthcare rationing.
https://ktar.com/story/3351722/arizona-a...

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2...

Submitted by spdrun on July 1, 2020 - 7:47am.

Since the US (outside of NY and a few other states) can't seem to handle basic fucking precautions like wearing masks, the cynic in me says maybe it's best to let it go, infect and kill where it may, burn out, so we can return to normal standards of healthcare. I can understand not liking full lockdowns, but I feel like the anti-mask, anti-science crowd has made its bed. Let them lie in it with a bucket full of bedbugs.

We in the NY area should just institute hard border controls to keep 'zonies from coming in.

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