4S ranch--Pienza Jan release

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Submitted by nestingcouple on April 16, 2007 - 9:18pm

Pienza has 4 houses felling out from the Janunary release, and is having a new release this Saturday.

the currebnt price list for the 4 houses: (with $20K lender incentive)

Lot 830 (plan 3212) -- $731,490
Lot 829 (plan 2901) $707,890
Lot 825 (plan 2901) $721,890
Lot 828 (plan 3365) $737,890

Does anyone happen to have the price list for Jan for these 4 houses?

Thanks a lot

Submitted by ocrenter on April 16, 2007 - 9:50pm.

nesting, when did you get these prices?

I got these from 3/29/07:

Lot 797 (plan 2901) $742,990
Lot 798 (plan 3365) $779,990
Lot 825 (plan 2901) $724,990-->$721,890
Lot 829 (plan 2901) $713,900-->$707,890
Lot 830 (plan 3212) $741,990-->$731,490

looks like between 3/29 to now, lot 828 fell out. so does this mean lot 797 and lot 798 both sold? so looks like its sell 2 homes and get one back for Pienza.

check out this loser that bought plan 3365 when it was SilverCrest 10 months ago.

Submitted by nestingcouple on April 16, 2007 - 10:04pm.

Hi ocrenter. Thanks a lot for the pricing information. I got the pricelist yesterday but it was dated 4/4. It's going to release 4 new houses this sat and will only give price infor on this Sat.

Submitted by nestingcouple on April 16, 2007 - 10:20pm.

797 was marked as sold, the price listed was $737,890. 798 was sold, the price was not listed in the latest pricelist.

Submitted by ocrenter on April 16, 2007 - 11:23pm.

but as soon as 797 is sold for $737,890, they drop the prices on the other two 2901 models?

Lot 825 (plan 2901) $724,990-->$721,890
Lot 829 (plan 2901) $713,900-->$707,890

so 797 just lost up to $30,000 in 1-2 weeks?

Submitted by nestingcouple on April 16, 2007 - 11:34pm.

That's a sharp observation. 829 is cheaper because it's a corner house, facing two streets. But 825 and 797 are just across the street, looks exaclty the same lot size from the lot map, and yeah, it seems 797 lost about $16000 in a couple of weeks. I'm curious could the buyer negotiate with the builder to get some price deduction or ask the builder to throw in som upgrade/landscaping to make up the lose?

Submitted by SD Realtor on April 16, 2007 - 11:54pm.

Guys don't forget also that in each of these cases the good faith deposit was most likely kept. The builders have a VERY quick contingency removal.

SD Realtor

Submitted by ocrenter on April 17, 2007 - 7:16am.

we're seeing the catching of that falling knife as we speak...

Submitted by 4Sbuyer2002 on April 17, 2007 - 7:37pm.

Historical 4S pricing for Fieldstone

FYI for those that want a more distant historical perspective,

Prior to Silver Crest and Pienza, Fieldstone built Cambridge in 4S Ranch. Cambridge has very similar plans by same builder except the lots are quit a bit bigger. I thought I would never say such a thing because the lots in Cambridge seem very small. However, compared to what they are squeezing Silver Crest and Pienza homes into the lots at Cambridge seem spacious.

Here are the Fieldstone 4S prices for Phase 4 and 5 of Cambridge.

Phase 4 release on June 28, 2003

Plan 2814 - $559,990
Plan 3157 - $592,990
Plan 3392 - $615,990

Phase 5 release on August 9, 2003

Plan 2814 - $594,990
Plan 3157 - $616,990
Plan 3392 - $634,990

grateful owner . . . .

Submitted by ocrenter on April 17, 2007 - 8:14pm.

2900-3300 sqft for $707,000 to $737,000. April 2007

vs.

2800-3400 sqft for $595,000 to $635,000. August 2003

So we are $100,000 away from August 2003 pricing, considering these were actually up to $900,000 in late 2005 - early 2006... perhaps by the end of the year we would hit August 2003 pricing?

Submitted by mixxalot on April 17, 2007 - 8:22pm.

Prices need to drop another 200k for anyone with half a brain to buy one of these dumps.

Submitted by 4Sbuyer2002 on April 18, 2007 - 6:07pm.

$200k drop from $707K??? If a 3000 sq/ft SFH in 4S Ranch can ever again be bought for 500K I will be the first in line to buy another. Barring a nuclear strike on San Diego, a massive earthquake, a melt down at San Onofre, or a meteor strike on Del Mar it won't happen.

grateful owner . . . .

Submitted by nestingcouple on April 18, 2007 - 8:05pm.

Hi macabre, I do not think a $20K drop is realistic either. If we use the 2000 price, factoring 3% inflation which is about 23% appreciation, a housing selling at $520K for a 3277 sqrt (which one of my friend bought new) can be priced at $640K. If we think 2000 price is reasonable, I would be happy to buy using this pricing formula.

Hi macabre, how is your house quality? Is fieldstone is reputable one? One of my friend's house was built in 2004, and their wall (other neighbors as well) had a big long crack, finally the builder fixed it.

Submitted by nla on April 18, 2007 - 8:40pm.

Maybe it's just me, but compared to Davidson or even Cornerstone, I find Fieldstone homes as inferior and poorly built. But what do I know. Plus it seems that most of Fieldstone floorplans are "boring". That's just me though.

Submitted by nestingcouple on April 18, 2007 - 8:48pm.

Hi nla,
which communities have the two builders built in SD? Neither of the two has built or is building houses in 4S.

Submitted by sdcellar on April 19, 2007 - 12:24am.

nestingcouple-- I don't know anything about Cornerstone, but Davidson's built plenty in San Diego *and* 4S Ranch. Their Reunion development is just around the corner from Silvercrest.

Submitted by 4Sbuyer2002 on April 19, 2007 - 11:59am.

What is percieved as boring or unoriginal floor plans is sometimes dictated not by a lack of creativity but a lack of space. When you have to squeeze a 3000 sq/ft SFH onto a square shaped 5000 to 6000 sq/ft lot you pretty much have to have a square two story box or it won't fit. The trend to build as much square footage on increasingly smaller lots makes the plans seem unimaginative. I'm sure if you had 1/3 to 1/2 acre you could be much more creative.

No complaints so far about Fieldstone. No cracks etc. I do know that a few specific small areas of the South side of 4S Ranch had problems with earth settling which resulted in cracks and worse. Various builders homes were affected. These problems were no so much poor quality by the builder but poor site preparation by Newland, the Master Developer of all of 4S Ranch. Of the thousands of homes on the South side I think no more than 20-30 had settling issues.

grateful owner . . . .

Submitted by gn on April 19, 2007 - 12:02pm.

4Sbuyer2002,

Back in 2005, if you were to ask people what it would take for a 3000 sq/ft SFH in 4S to go down to $750k, many would say:

- Massive earthquake, nuclear strike ...

Here we are in 2007, no earthquake, no nuclear strike. The job market is good. And the foreclosure activities are just starting to pick up.

Stay tuned. You haven't seen anything yet.

Submitted by Cow_tipping on April 19, 2007 - 12:03pm.

I like boring straighforward boxes. They need to be easy to build (OK fine its cheaper that's why) and they should be easy to maintain, cheap to heat and cool and right for the way I live my life. I have plenty of excitement in my life to expect it from my house. I expect my house to shelter me, not entertain me.
Anyway, I think I'll make like a bandit when these stucco boxes are repoed by the million ... just patience.
I like Brick just fine, but rock, stone or whatever crap is just a place for cobwebs and dirt to collect. Simple with good and inexpensive materials. Vinyl is fine, but dont gimme the cheapass sheite, good 6 inch beaded lap vinyl, shingles are fine, gimme good shingles not shitty paper thin.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Submitted by nla on April 19, 2007 - 12:15pm.

4Sbuyer2002: Point Taken. I agree since most of the current (or maybe former) projects by Davidson and Cornerstone have bigger lots than what you mentioned so they have more "freedom" and "creativity" as far as floor plan is concerned (i.e. adding courtyards, open/volume ceilings, etc).

Funny you mentioned about Newland. Their headquarter is next door to us (UTC/La Jolla area). I didn't know they are the master developer of 4S until now.

Cornerstone has a project in StoneBridge: Tiburon, while Davidson has projects in Lacosta, Delsur and Stonebridge.

Submitted by 4Sbuyer2002 on April 19, 2007 - 5:16pm.

gn . . . "standing buy",

Bought for 506k w 20% down on 10/1 ARM at rate of 4.5% in 2002. Have home with 3 small kids attending new schools in Poway school district playing little league baseball/soccer on new fields at incredible new athletic park. Eligible for full retirement in 2015, 3 years after ARM adjusts in 2012 . . . . "standing buy" and not going anywhere.

Newland grades and prepares groups of lots which it then sells to developers. All the common areas in 4S are also done by Newland and upon completion and acceptance turned over to 4S Master Association to run.

grateful owner . . . .

Submitted by PerryChase on April 19, 2007 - 8:51pm.

4Sbuyer2002, you bought early enough that I think that you'll be fine and you can weather the downturn.

However, you did not buy early enough to be insulated. Your cost of ownership is still higher than rent and someone who buys a home similar to yours for the same price in 2009/2010 would be financially better off. He would have had more time to save and invest the difference between owning and renting.

For sure, you're doing a lot better than the people who bought 2004 through 2006.

-----------

I did look at the Fieldstone houses just for fun -- I hate master planned communities but I did it for my brothers and other relatives as I'm now the family's real estate expert :)

I too noticed that Fieldstone homes were boring (compared to other builders) and the models homes seemed less well done. It was a while ago but, if my memory serves me right, the second floor ceilings seemed lower so, while the houses are large, they didn't feel inviting to me. Another thing is that Fieldstone houses have bedrooms but few bathrooms.

Submitted by 4Sbuyer2002 on April 19, 2007 - 9:24pm.

PerryChase,

I don't know the current cost to rent a 3100 sq/ft home in 4S but I think its above my cost of ownership which is as follows:

Note: These are actual numbers as opposed to estimated, often inflated, "cost of ownership" numbers often touted to make a point.

Mortgage (Int. Only 10/1 @ 4.5% on 404K) $1515 (after 20% down)
Mello Roos $240
Property Tax $700
HOA $65
Insurance $65

Total ownership cost (B4 taxes) $2585
less tax deduction 1515+940x12 divided by .28 (28% bracket) = ($687/mo.)

Monthly cost of ownership $1900

PerryChase if you know where one can rent a 3100 5bd 4.5bath home in 4S for $1900 mo. please advise I have many friends who are interested in renting a place at that price. I haven't seen it however.

For example, www.rentnet.com has a 1314 sq/ft 3bd 2bth in 4S Ranch for $2090. see http://www.rentnet.com/apartments/fyp/se...

As a purely monetary investment you may, or may not, be right when you speculate about the financial gain/loss outcome by 2010 of holding a home bought in 4S back in 2002. However, the home for my family along with the great environment we enjoy in 4S makes it more than a purely financial investment. To be sure your home has a huge financial investment component but its not everything (i.e. where my kids grow up and go to school etc.).

grateful owner . . . .

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 19, 2007 - 9:35pm.

You forgot to include the cost of moving at least 4 times between 2002 and 2010 not to mention what that does to your career and family stability.

PC is a bachelor and often doesnt get there is a significant return in terms of happiness, security and finances by having your kids grow up around the same friends in a safe, secure and happy environment..

Submitted by nestingcouple on April 19, 2007 - 9:42pm.

Hi 4Sbuyer2002, Thanks for sharing the real numbers for cost of ownership. For insurance, I was using 0.4%, which is $244 a month for the house I'm looking at. Is your insurance really as low as $65?
It's clear to me your cost of ownership is much lower than comparable rent.

Submitted by an on April 19, 2007 - 11:58pm.

Congrats 4Sbuyer2002 on being at the right place at the right time and taking advantage of the situation. I doubt we'll ever see 4.5% interest rate again. Some of us are not as fortunate. I graduated w/ my BS in 2002-2003, which was a horrible time and it was hard enough to find a job, much less make a long term commitment like a house. Now that people like myself finally saved some money to start thinking of a house, it's no longer at the level it was in 2004. Where we go from here is anybody guess, but my bet is on returning to fundamental. It did many times before, this time won't be any different.

Submitted by PerryChase on April 20, 2007 - 8:52am.

4Sbuyers2002, point well taken.

As I said, you'll be able to weather the downturn just fine. You still have plenty of equity to get through the slump.

Several things to note about your calculations: 1) opportunity cost of down payment, 2) gardening/maintenance costs, and 3) mello-roos is not tax deductible (although many do so anyway).

Submitted by an on April 20, 2007 - 9:35am.

PerryChase, good catch on the opportunity cost of the down payment. $100k is quit a bit of money. @ 5% return from a saving account, you're already looking @ $415/month. @ 10%, that number grows to $830/month. But I don't think even that will get the rent # bellow the $1900 4Sbuyers2002 came up with. Rent for that size house in 4S I think is around $3k/month.

Submitted by Bugs on April 20, 2007 - 10:07am.

If the 4.5% interest rate is not the fixed rate of the loan then the payment represents something in between owning the home and renting it. They own the right to profit (or lose) on the resale, but they aren't any closer to owning the asset itself than if they were renting. The tax break is about the same regardless; it's just built into the rental rate as opposed to being separate from a mortgage payment.

The downpayment is investment capital from an investment standpoint, and at whatever point the the property isn't appreciating faster than the rate of inflation then that investment is losing money. The investment may still be ahead, but if its currently bleeding then there are alternate investments that make better economic sense.

As for the "security" of home ownership, I think it's somewhat overrated.

I think people sometimes project their own problems onto their kids; they feel a little displaced so they search for solutions to prevent their kids from going through that. It's an admirable motive, but a kid doesn't feel a relocation until they're in school and they start to branch out from their household. Really, I think the potential for damage to a kid is a lot higher when both parents have to work obscene hours in an effort to maintain a lifestyle.

I doubt most family renters are compelled to move every 2 years unless they want to for some reason; nor do I think it's that difficult to find similar homes in the same school area if they're so concerned about their kids maintaining the same relationships for 7 years at a time. Trust me, by the time kids get into high school their circle of friends are generally different that what they start out with in middle school, and it extends a lot farther than their block. I would never worry about the kids - they don't start having problems until you start changing schools at other than the start of middle school or high school.

A 2002 sales price is probably a pretty safe bet. It may not be completely "protected" from loss, but neither is it double - let alone triple - the stabilized value at the long term trendline.

Submitted by an on April 20, 2007 - 10:33am.

Very good post bug. Also, if you noticed, it's 4.5% IO loan, so basically, it's renting for 10 years at $1900/month with an option to buy @ $500k price.

I totally agree with you that kids much rather have their parents home with them more than living in some fancy house. I know many people who their parents work very hard to give them the fancy cars and buy nice houses for them to live in. But they'd trade all that in a heart beat to have their parents home more with them. Their parents basically missed out all their childhood.

Submitted by 4Sbuyer2002 on April 20, 2007 - 10:53am.

Bugs,

The 4.5 is fixed until November, 2012 which is just under 3 years before I retire with full benefits, sell my home, and move to Montana to be closer to family. So I have accepted an interest rate deviation risk for the years 2012 to 2015. A risk I deemed acceptible and prudent. As far as "downpayment investment capital." Even at today's prices for a similar home my downpayment has appreciated in value 200+% in four years. It had appreciated as high as 300 to 350% but has since retreated. As far as "now bleeding" (drop from 350% appreciation to 200%) a home is not a stock or a bar of gold. Sure it has come down from the high but you are not suggesting that once a home market hits the top the best move (financially, socially, family, etc.) is to sell at the top, rent, and reinvest the profit into alternative better returning investments are you???? Perhaps from a purely financial rate of return perspective (i.e. if I were a hope flipper) it is technically correct. I bought my home in 4S so my family can grow up, go to school, and make friends in as ideal an environment as possible. Its not all about the money. But from a money standpoint a current appreciation of 200% (100K down on 500k price for 3100 sq/ft SFH now available for 720k to 750k) something to be "grateful" for. I guess one could HELOC the equity out and invest it in the stock market but . . . that would be foolish wouldn't it. I sleep well at 20% and fixed until November, 2012 at 4.5%. As far as I can tell, my current cost of ownership is still below the current cost to rent. Not to mention the intangible non-financial benefits of homeownership.

grateful owner . . . .

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