I’m curious how bullish or I’m curious how bullish or bearish this board is right now, especially since I’m very uncertain.
no_such_reality
December 2, 2015 @
4:49 PM
I think much like this year, I think much like this year, 5-7% increase with declining volume. Prices are high, people are priced in, too expensive to move and that constrains homes for sale which continues to drive prices.
The-Shoveler
December 2, 2015 @
5:09 PM
Prices are high but no one is Prices are high but no one is giving the builders a green light to build anything in SD, so like NSR said, people are priced “IN” and not going anywhere.
Also the millennials are finally starting to get real Jobs and move out of the basement from everything I have been reading.
bearishgurl
December 2, 2015 @
5:48 PM
I’ve been looking around CA I’ve been looking around CA and two other states since October 2009 considering locales I might eventually want to settle in for “retirement.” But when I recently crunched the numbers (still haven’t picked up my 2015 TurboTax but I believe it may be available now), it was far cheaper for me to stay put.
Of the two other states I was considering relocating to, one had overall cheaper housing than CA but there were very, very few providers on their state-exchange healthplans. Several of my urban-dwelling relatives in that state who were forced into purchasing a healthplan from their exchange complained to me vociferously of no available providers within 40 miles of their residences who would accept their BCBS PPOs! So when I got home, I checked for myself and found that they were all correct. There were truly no available providers and my relatives had virtually been paying their premiums into thin air!
The other state’s housing was on par in price with SD’s, a little below LA area pricing and and further below SF bay area pricing. However its exchange healthplans were priced between $150 and $275 per month higher than CA’s exchange for 2016 PPO plans for my age. In addition, the state did not appear to have any coordinated care available for serious illnesses such as we here in SD have in Sharp, Scripps and UCSD and take for granted. (Time … and provider competency … is of the essence when one is diagnosed with a serious illness.)
My current decision wouldn’t preclude me from buying a nicer out-of-county home with a co-owner (preferably a spouse) in the future … making me ostensibly responsible for only half of the monthly expense. In this scenario, I would of course want a prenup and all estate planning executed well prior to marriage.
I love big, expansive, well-treed lots but am unable to maintain one by myself as well as absorb a much higher monthly water bill.
As it stands right now, I have it made in the shade (financially) and know where all the roads out of here lead to and how to get on them should I want/need to travel. I am but just one more SD county homeowner out there who may very well retire in place 🙂
Hence, I voted 4% or more appreciation for 2016, due to the low inventory out there for today’s buyers to choose from (especially in the well-established areas). The continued presence of props 13, 58 and 193 exacerbate this problem . . . exponentially.
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.
The-Shoveler
December 2, 2015 @
6:04 PM
bearishgurl wrote:
For a [quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.
bearishgurl
December 2, 2015 @
6:43 PM
The-Shoveler [quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).
Jazzman
December 3, 2015 @
11:06 AM
bearishgurl [quote=bearishgurl][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).[/quote]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.
Coronita
December 3, 2015 @
11:08 AM
Jazzman wrote:bearishgurl [quote=Jazzman][quote=bearishgurl][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).[/quote]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
If you say so.
paramount
December 3, 2015 @
11:21 AM
bearishgurl wrote:
It’s very [quote=bearishgurl]
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. [/quote]
And whom may we thank for that?
paramount
December 3, 2015 @
11:25 AM
Listen up: Most of you suffer Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.
an
December 3, 2015 @
11:52 AM
paramount wrote:Listen up: [quote=paramount]Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.[/quote]
What bubble?
poorgradstudent
December 3, 2015 @
2:18 PM
paramount wrote:Listen up: [quote=paramount]Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.[/quote]
There’s that classic, bearish Piggington thinking I haven’t seen much of lately. I miss the old Doomsday Permabears who worshipped Nouriel Roubini.
I actually subscribe to the following theories:
1) Homes are currently slightly-moderately overpriced
2) Supply is low, and relatively high prices don’t seem to be bringing out sellers in droves
3) Interest rates are low but likely are going to creep up in the next year
I still don’t think we’re in a bubble. We’re still below bubble nominal highs, 10 years of inflation later. There are fundamental reasons for the recent price increases compared to the housing bubble.
I think home prices will keep up with inflation, which has been close to zero for 2015 but probably will bounce back to 2-3% next year. I’m not confident they will do much better than 2% though.
scaredyclassic
December 3, 2015 @
2:22 PM
poorgradstudent [quote=poorgradstudent][quote=paramount]Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.[/quote]
There’s that classic, bearish Piggington thinking I haven’t seen much of lately. I miss the old Doomsday Permabears who worshipped Nouriel Roubini.
I actually subscribe to the following theories:
1) Homes are currently slightly-moderately overpriced
2) Supply is low, and relatively high prices don’t seem to be bringing out sellers in droves
3) Interest rates are low but likely are going to creep up in the next year
I still don’t think we’re in a bubble. We’re still below bubble nominal highs, 10 years of inflation later. There are fundamental reasons for the recent price increases compared to the housing bubble.
I think home prices will keep up with inflation, which has been close to zero for 2015 but probably will bounce back to 2-3% next year. I’m not confident they will do much better than 2% though.[/quote]
I was taking an ayurvedic computer questionnaire over tgiving with the family to see what my true nature was. One of the questions was whether I run like a deer, a bear or someth I ng else. I answered deer. No matter what you answered other family members found it hilatious.
I’m now a deer, not a bear.
FlyerInHi
December 3, 2015 @
2:39 PM
poorgradstudent wrote:
I [quote=poorgradstudent]
I actually subscribe to the following theories:
1) Homes are currently slightly-moderately overpriced
2) Supply is low, and relatively high prices don’t seem to be bringing out sellers in droves
3) Interest rates are low but likely are going to creep up in the next year
I still don’t think we’re in a bubble. We’re still below bubble nominal highs, 10 years of inflation later. There are fundamental reasons for the recent price increases compared to the housing bubble.
I think home prices will keep up with inflation, which has been close to zero for 2015 but probably will bounce back to 2-3% next year. I’m not confident they will do much better than 2% though.[/quote]
You’re the most reasonable analyst. Your posts are so well balanced, you sound like a professor.
I agree with you. But I would add that real estate is local and it depends on the area. We could have bubble areas forming in select coastal markets like in the late 80s. No national bubble for sure.
Shoveler is right that there’s not much building in San Diego and that situation will continue to push up prices.
In Las Vegas, a market I’m familiar with, we are seeing resale price stagnation because there is plenty of building that is taking place to take advantage of the seller’s market.
paramount
December 3, 2015 @
11:17 PM
FlyerInHi wrote:
You’re the [quote=FlyerInHi]
You’re the most reasonable analyst. Your posts are so well balanced, you sound like a professor.
global economy slowing
money velocity slowing
phoney gdp and unemployment numbers
record number of Americans not working
U.S. Coincident Index dropping like a lead balloon
$2 copper
<~$40 oil
ISM down
It's not a political thing, it's a math problem.
San Diego real estate flat at best next year.
global economy slowing
money velocity slowing
phoney gdp and unemployment numbers
record number of Americans not working
U.S. Coincident Index dropping like a lead balloon
$2 copper
<~$40 oil
ISM down
It's not a political thing, it's a math problem.
San Diego real estate flat at best next year.[/quote]
By definition, a bubble is in the process of getting bigger. If we are in a bubble it should go up.
When does the bubble end? That is the mystery.
The-Shoveler
December 3, 2015 @
1:12 PM
flu wrote:Jazzman wrote:
For [quote=flu][quote=Jazzman]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
If you say so.[/quote]
I got to go with flu, I just took a road trip through AZ and NM, For anything decent (newer etc…) it was upwards of 500K and there were no shortages of 1 million plus homes on the market even 3 million plus homes (we did a little research).
I kept thinking who would want to pay that to live here.
Sure there were quite a few trailer parks etc… that were cheap I guess, but I think you could find that here in the more inland areas.
an
December 3, 2015 @
11:22 AM
Jazzman wrote:For the [quote=Jazzman]For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
As long as the people moving make more than the people moving out, that’s what really matter. Even if the amount of people moving in is less than people who are moving out. Especially if the people moving out are renters to start with.
bearishgurl
December 3, 2015 @
1:11 PM
Jazzman wrote:bearishgurl [quote=Jazzman][quote=bearishgurl][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).[/quote]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
Well Jazzman, I’m sure you’re aware that there are more “tangibles” SoCal has going for it than just avocados … namely, low, low gas/electric bills, choice of tv/internet providers, reasonably priced trash pickup (3 diff collectors per week with a separate bin provided for each one), reasonable ($1-$3 day) city sewer svc, depending on water usage. Only residential water in CA tends to be more expensive than other states. There’s also Prop 13 regulating property taxes to 1% of assessed value and the right of a property owner to appeal their assessment every year and GREAT medical care with a wide choice of providers (in most healthplans) among other tangible things.
If you think other states with “cheaper” housing have all of the above conditions in place, you must have fallen asleep at the switch at some point. Aren’t you around “retirement age,” Jazzman? I haven’t seen you post here anywhere that you have been shopping for a nice “cheap” retirement home in flyover country!
I wonder why that is?? Lol …
no_such_reality
December 3, 2015 @
2:31 PM
Jazzman wrote:
For the [quote=Jazzman]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
Even with how badly Cali has been shedding jobs, what Cali has that Phoenix, Florida and much of Texas don’t have is job density. Particularly bio-med and high-tech job density that pulls all the support jobs up with them.
There’s other places that have them too and similar density and wages, but they’re just as expensive. And Austin has some of those jobs and steadily getting better, but unless you go Northeast, little competes with the solid mass and number, if dwindling, high paying jobs across large swaths of SoCal and NorCal.
The-Shoveler
December 3, 2015 @
2:35 PM
Even buying a home in a Even buying a home in a decent area in TX where there are Job’s (Dallas, Austin etc…)
Its not Cheap, the the property Tax will likely drown you.
They’re expecting 10% increase. We’ll see where we land in 12 months.
poorgradstudent
December 3, 2015 @
11:08 AM
bearishgurl wrote:
For a [quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
This is interesting to me, because I have always assumed anyone not anchored by children and grandchildren would sell their home after retirement and move someplace cheaper.
bearishgurl
December 3, 2015 @
11:30 AM
poorgradstudent [quote=poorgradstudent][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
This is interesting to me, because I have always assumed anyone not anchored by children and grandchildren would sell their home after retirement and move someplace cheaper.[/quote]
poorgradstudent, I’m living around mostly homeowners who are “grandparents.” The ones with grandchildren who are living locally (i.e. <10 miles away) are very active in their grandchildren’s lives. Some of them even provide regular after-school care. The one’s whose grandchildren attend school locally (but in a different district) see their grandchildren regularly. The ones who have grandchildren out of county/out of state see their grandchildren once or twice per year if they’re not too old to travel. None of these people are going anywhere!
Not every young family can afford to live where they grew up … in this case, Chula Vista. Or they could IF they could land a well-enough paying job in SD County. Some of them took the jobs they were offered in other locales after college graduation and there is nothing wrong with that. It’s as it should be.
Coronita
December 3, 2015 @
3:22 PM
FYI. Websense moved from San FYI. Websense moved from San Diego to Texas. They are moving back. Notice the recent string of hirings? All in San Diego. Sources say they had a problem find qualified talent.
joec
December 3, 2015 @
6:58 PM
Another point I’d add is Another point I’d add is older retirees with grown kids, etc…also don’t move to lower cost places like in other states. Reason is Prop 13…A lot of these people like my parents, aunts, etc have such a low tax basis, no mortgage, etc…that buying anything else now would cost them hundreds/thousands more per month probably…Wherever they live, staying put in their “older” house is simply cheaper.
That limits move up supply in the nicer areas they live in and again, it’s all about the local supply here. Rents are still insane and the builders don’t build unless things are sold…
ltsddd
December 3, 2015 @
7:03 PM
I might be in the minority I might be in the minority here, but I am in the camp that believes the inverse relationship between interest rates & housing prices. I would say house prices will be flat to negative – depends on how much the feds will raise the interest rate. I don’t see SD appreciate 10% next year. $600K+ for 40 years old 3/2 or 4/2 tract home in mira mesa? Not seeing it.
poorgradstudent
December 4, 2015 @
11:14 AM
ltsdd wrote:I might be in the [quote=ltsdd]I might be in the minority here, but I am in the camp that believes the inverse relationship between interest rates & housing prices. I would say house prices will be flat to negative – depends on how much the feds will raise the interest rate. I don’t see SD appreciate 10% next year. $600K+ for 40 years old 3/2 or 4/2 tract home in mira mesa? Not seeing it.[/quote]
Clearly an increase in interest rates can have a negative impact on prices. But rates are still *really* low, and I personally (mostly guessing) don’t expect the Fed to raise rates all that quickly in 2016. My personal (wild) guess is they will raise them in December and watch and see what happens both domestically and globally.
That 10% estimate seems just silly to me, unless they’re looking at a weird metric like median home sale price, and even then I am extremely skeptical that’s plausible. Today’s 500k homes aren’t going to be 550k at the end of next year.
gzz
December 5, 2015 @
3:54 AM
This isn’t rocket science. It This isn’t rocket science. It continues to be substantially cheaper to buy than rent for single family homes if you have income enough to itemize and the credit to get a good 30 year rate.
That was not at all the case in the 2005-07 bubble period. Since then rents have gone up about 30% and 30-year mortgage rates have gone from about 6.5% to 3.75%.
This is why nobody is selling but a lot of people are in the market.
I’ll guess 11% increase.
flyer
December 5, 2015 @
5:59 AM
BG, glad to hear you’ve BG, glad to hear you’ve reconsidered staying in San Diego. Would hate to see you give up what you have and wish you could get it back. We’ve known people who have left, and were never able to return.
Like you, we’ve actually looked (and even lived) in many other places but, for many of the reasons you’ve mentioned, have come to the conclusion that we want to keep San Diego as our home base.
We know we could never replace what we have here anywhere in the world + my wife plans to stay active in the film business for many years to come, the kids come and go a lot, and most of our friends and family are somewhere in the state.
Enjoy!
bearishgurl
December 5, 2015 @
6:45 PM
flyer wrote:BG, glad to hear [quote=flyer]BG, glad to hear you’ve reconsidered staying in San Diego. Would hate to see you give up what you have and wish you could get it back. We’ve known people who have left, and were never able to return.
Like you, we’ve actually looked (and even lived) in many other places but, for many of the reasons you’ve mentioned, have come to the conclusion that we want to keep San Diego as our home base.
We know we could never replace what we have here anywhere in the world + my wife plans to stay active in the film business for many years to come, the kids come and go a lot, and most of our friends and family are somewhere in the state.
Enjoy![/quote]
flyer, I, too, have known several people who have sold their (often longtime, beloved) home in SD County, moved to another state and immediately bought a home and decided within two years that the new locale was not for them so sold their home there quickly (for a loss, due to lack of appreciation plus selling costs) and came crawling back to a (more expensive) SD than they left.
All were 55-75 years of age when they left SD for “greener (cheaper) pastures” in other states and as you might surmise, their returns to SD did not end well. Two couples stayed with us for up to two months (different times) and found that they could not even afford to rent (didn’t want apt) and so left again for Central Valley and AZ respectively without ever taking their household goods out of storage. Another couple who were good friends followed their grandchildren to TX and built a big beautiful home there with a covered pool, cabana and the works, having sold the custom home here which they had built themselves 25 years before. The couple ended up divorcing in TX and selling their spread in a “fire sale” thereby losing nearly all the equity in their old SD homestead. The ex-wife (at the age of 66) ended up coming back to SD a little over 2 years later and renting a detached condo about two miles from their old homestead. However, it was across a fwy and the neighborhood of her rental was several notches below what they had left just two years prior. A fourth couple (old friends of my ex-spouse) sold a Clairemont Mtn Street home (4/2/2) they had purchased 15 years earlier and moved to the state of LA where the husbands relatives lived. That only lasted 9-10 months and they also came back to SD relatively broke (not sure why) and stayed with the wife’s daughter for a while but couldn’t find anyplace suitable and affordable enough to rent (they had a fairly large dog).
I have lost touch will all of these people but even back in the late ’80’s thru early 00’s when these longtime San Diegans tried their luck elsewhere, all of them came back “home” to SD in much worse financial shape then when they left. None migrated to “high-cost” areas and ALL were too old to recover from these decisions.
I learned at lot of these lessons earlier in life from watching others make mistakes.
I’m still reserving the right to lease my home out should I decide to try living elsewhere but that “elsewhere” is very likely to be “elsewhere in CA.”
flyer
December 5, 2015 @
6:57 PM
Have heard about and seen Have heard about and seen some of the same, BG. Sad to hear that people literally ruined their lives by making bad decisions later in life when there was no way to recover.
We leased some of our homes out when we were traveling around for extended periods of time. It’s a great way to keep your home base, while you are checking out other options, and I think that would be a great idea for you, too.
December 2, 2015 @ 4:22 PM
I’m curious how bullish or
I’m curious how bullish or bearish this board is right now, especially since I’m very uncertain.
December 2, 2015 @ 4:49 PM
I think much like this year,
I think much like this year, 5-7% increase with declining volume. Prices are high, people are priced in, too expensive to move and that constrains homes for sale which continues to drive prices.
December 2, 2015 @ 5:09 PM
Prices are high but no one is
Prices are high but no one is giving the builders a green light to build anything in SD, so like NSR said, people are priced “IN” and not going anywhere.
Also the millennials are finally starting to get real Jobs and move out of the basement from everything I have been reading.
December 2, 2015 @ 5:48 PM
I’ve been looking around CA
I’ve been looking around CA and two other states since October 2009 considering locales I might eventually want to settle in for “retirement.” But when I recently crunched the numbers (still haven’t picked up my 2015 TurboTax but I believe it may be available now), it was far cheaper for me to stay put.
Of the two other states I was considering relocating to, one had overall cheaper housing than CA but there were very, very few providers on their state-exchange healthplans. Several of my urban-dwelling relatives in that state who were forced into purchasing a healthplan from their exchange complained to me vociferously of no available providers within 40 miles of their residences who would accept their BCBS PPOs! So when I got home, I checked for myself and found that they were all correct. There were truly no available providers and my relatives had virtually been paying their premiums into thin air!
The other state’s housing was on par in price with SD’s, a little below LA area pricing and and further below SF bay area pricing. However its exchange healthplans were priced between $150 and $275 per month higher than CA’s exchange for 2016 PPO plans for my age. In addition, the state did not appear to have any coordinated care available for serious illnesses such as we here in SD have in Sharp, Scripps and UCSD and take for granted. (Time … and provider competency … is of the essence when one is diagnosed with a serious illness.)
My current decision wouldn’t preclude me from buying a nicer out-of-county home with a co-owner (preferably a spouse) in the future … making me ostensibly responsible for only half of the monthly expense. In this scenario, I would of course want a prenup and all estate planning executed well prior to marriage.
I love big, expansive, well-treed lots but am unable to maintain one by myself as well as absorb a much higher monthly water bill.
As it stands right now, I have it made in the shade (financially) and know where all the roads out of here lead to and how to get on them should I want/need to travel. I am but just one more SD county homeowner out there who may very well retire in place 🙂
Hence, I voted 4% or more appreciation for 2016, due to the low inventory out there for today’s buyers to choose from (especially in the well-established areas). The continued presence of props 13, 58 and 193 exacerbate this problem . . . exponentially.
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.
December 2, 2015 @ 6:04 PM
bearishgurl wrote:
For a
[quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.
December 2, 2015 @ 6:43 PM
The-Shoveler
[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).
December 3, 2015 @ 11:06 AM
bearishgurl
[quote=bearishgurl][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).[/quote]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.
December 3, 2015 @ 11:08 AM
Jazzman wrote:bearishgurl
[quote=Jazzman][quote=bearishgurl][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).[/quote]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
If you say so.
December 3, 2015 @ 11:21 AM
bearishgurl wrote:
It’s very
[quote=bearishgurl]
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. [/quote]
And whom may we thank for that?
December 3, 2015 @ 11:25 AM
Listen up: Most of you suffer
Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.
December 3, 2015 @ 11:52 AM
paramount wrote:Listen up:
[quote=paramount]Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.[/quote]
What bubble?
December 3, 2015 @ 2:18 PM
paramount wrote:Listen up:
[quote=paramount]Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.[/quote]
There’s that classic, bearish Piggington thinking I haven’t seen much of lately. I miss the old Doomsday Permabears who worshipped Nouriel Roubini.
I actually subscribe to the following theories:
1) Homes are currently slightly-moderately overpriced
2) Supply is low, and relatively high prices don’t seem to be bringing out sellers in droves
3) Interest rates are low but likely are going to creep up in the next year
I still don’t think we’re in a bubble. We’re still below bubble nominal highs, 10 years of inflation later. There are fundamental reasons for the recent price increases compared to the housing bubble.
I think home prices will keep up with inflation, which has been close to zero for 2015 but probably will bounce back to 2-3% next year. I’m not confident they will do much better than 2% though.
December 3, 2015 @ 2:22 PM
poorgradstudent
[quote=poorgradstudent][quote=paramount]Listen up: Most of you suffer from normalcy bias – the US (and global) economy fundamentally sucks – we are not an island. We’re in a bubble which will likely burst next year. Even the ‘coastal’ 1%ers won’t be immune.
At best RE is flat next year.[/quote]
There’s that classic, bearish Piggington thinking I haven’t seen much of lately. I miss the old Doomsday Permabears who worshipped Nouriel Roubini.
I actually subscribe to the following theories:
1) Homes are currently slightly-moderately overpriced
2) Supply is low, and relatively high prices don’t seem to be bringing out sellers in droves
3) Interest rates are low but likely are going to creep up in the next year
I still don’t think we’re in a bubble. We’re still below bubble nominal highs, 10 years of inflation later. There are fundamental reasons for the recent price increases compared to the housing bubble.
I think home prices will keep up with inflation, which has been close to zero for 2015 but probably will bounce back to 2-3% next year. I’m not confident they will do much better than 2% though.[/quote]
I was taking an ayurvedic computer questionnaire over tgiving with the family to see what my true nature was. One of the questions was whether I run like a deer, a bear or someth I ng else. I answered deer. No matter what you answered other family members found it hilatious.
I’m now a deer, not a bear.
December 3, 2015 @ 2:39 PM
poorgradstudent wrote:
I
[quote=poorgradstudent]
I actually subscribe to the following theories:
1) Homes are currently slightly-moderately overpriced
2) Supply is low, and relatively high prices don’t seem to be bringing out sellers in droves
3) Interest rates are low but likely are going to creep up in the next year
I still don’t think we’re in a bubble. We’re still below bubble nominal highs, 10 years of inflation later. There are fundamental reasons for the recent price increases compared to the housing bubble.
I think home prices will keep up with inflation, which has been close to zero for 2015 but probably will bounce back to 2-3% next year. I’m not confident they will do much better than 2% though.[/quote]
You’re the most reasonable analyst. Your posts are so well balanced, you sound like a professor.
I agree with you. But I would add that real estate is local and it depends on the area. We could have bubble areas forming in select coastal markets like in the late 80s. No national bubble for sure.
Shoveler is right that there’s not much building in San Diego and that situation will continue to push up prices.
In Las Vegas, a market I’m familiar with, we are seeing resale price stagnation because there is plenty of building that is taking place to take advantage of the seller’s market.
December 3, 2015 @ 11:17 PM
FlyerInHi wrote:
You’re the
[quote=FlyerInHi]
You’re the most reasonable analyst. Your posts are so well balanced, you sound like a professor.
I agree with you. [/quote]
But reasonable doesn’t mean right. Let’s see:
*Debt Bubble (US Debt can’t keep doubling forever…)
*Stock Market bubble
*Student Loan Bubble
*Auto loan bubble
*Real Estate bubble
*Dollar bubble
global economy slowing
money velocity slowing
phoney gdp and unemployment numbers
record number of Americans not working
U.S. Coincident Index dropping like a lead balloon
$2 copper
<~$40 oil ISM down It's not a political thing, it's a math problem. San Diego real estate flat at best next year.
December 4, 2015 @ 7:01 AM
paramount wrote:FlyerInHi
[quote=paramount][quote=FlyerInHi]
You’re the most reasonable analyst. Your posts are so well balanced, you sound like a professor.
I agree with you. [/quote]
But reasonable doesn’t mean right. Let’s see:
*Debt Bubble (US Debt can’t keep doubling forever…)
*Stock Market bubble
*Student Loan Bubble
*Auto loan bubble
*Real Estate bubble
*Dollar bubble
global economy slowing
money velocity slowing
phoney gdp and unemployment numbers
record number of Americans not working
U.S. Coincident Index dropping like a lead balloon
$2 copper
<~$40 oil ISM down It's not a political thing, it's a math problem. San Diego real estate flat at best next year.[/quote] By definition, a bubble is in the process of getting bigger. If we are in a bubble it should go up. When does the bubble end? That is the mystery.
December 3, 2015 @ 1:12 PM
flu wrote:Jazzman wrote:
For
[quote=flu][quote=Jazzman]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
If you say so.[/quote]
I got to go with flu, I just took a road trip through AZ and NM, For anything decent (newer etc…) it was upwards of 500K and there were no shortages of 1 million plus homes on the market even 3 million plus homes (we did a little research).
I kept thinking who would want to pay that to live here.
Sure there were quite a few trailer parks etc… that were cheap I guess, but I think you could find that here in the more inland areas.
December 3, 2015 @ 11:22 AM
Jazzman wrote:For the
[quote=Jazzman]For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
As long as the people moving make more than the people moving out, that’s what really matter. Even if the amount of people moving in is less than people who are moving out. Especially if the people moving out are renters to start with.
December 3, 2015 @ 1:11 PM
Jazzman wrote:bearishgurl
[quote=Jazzman][quote=bearishgurl][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
The longer you have owned in SoCal the more priced “in” you are and the less incentive to move to retire.
Just the opposite of most the North East, there they chase you down to Florida LOL.[/quote]It’s not just SoCal, Shoveler. It’s ALL of coastal Cali. The longer one has owned the same residence in (expensive) coastal CA counties, the better situation they are in …. property tax and appreciation wise.
As are the coastal Cali homeowners who continuously sold and bought better and better homes … up until about 2001-2002. Even though this group’s assessments aren’t as low as those of current decades-long owners, their “retirement home” is often bigger and in a better area. However, far fewer residences bought since 1990 are paid off today versus residences bought in the eighties or prior. This doesn’t mean this newer group of owners doesn’t have the ability to pay off their mortgages today … it just means that they haven’t yet done so.
It’s very hard to duplicate everything one is used to in a coastal CA county elsewhere in the country. That includes tangibles and intangibles. On a micro scale, consider that I just bought 2 large avocados for $1 (50 cents each) in Nat’l City yesterday. I’ve been on the road a total of about five weeks this year and have seen them in other states priced at $2, $6 and $8 (yes folks, $8) apiece! These stores were just 1100 to 1400 miles from here. Their surrounding residents are really getting ripped off on produce purchases, IMO (assuming it all actually sells at these inflated prices).[/quote]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
Well Jazzman, I’m sure you’re aware that there are more “tangibles” SoCal has going for it than just avocados … namely, low, low gas/electric bills, choice of tv/internet providers, reasonably priced trash pickup (3 diff collectors per week with a separate bin provided for each one), reasonable ($1-$3 day) city sewer svc, depending on water usage. Only residential water in CA tends to be more expensive than other states. There’s also Prop 13 regulating property taxes to 1% of assessed value and the right of a property owner to appeal their assessment every year and GREAT medical care with a wide choice of providers (in most healthplans) among other tangible things.
If you think other states with “cheaper” housing have all of the above conditions in place, you must have fallen asleep at the switch at some point. Aren’t you around “retirement age,” Jazzman? I haven’t seen you post here anywhere that you have been shopping for a nice “cheap” retirement home in flyover country!
I wonder why that is?? Lol …
December 3, 2015 @ 2:31 PM
Jazzman wrote:
For the
[quote=Jazzman]
For the difference in home price between CA and other states you could buy ten of thousands of avocados even at $8 a piece. I grant you the ocean and sunshine are difficult to “duplicate” but the costs to benefits derived are disproportionately high. It seems that where intangibles are concerned anything goes. If you happy with that, fine but for many it makes little sense.[/quote]
Even with how badly Cali has been shedding jobs, what Cali has that Phoenix, Florida and much of Texas don’t have is job density. Particularly bio-med and high-tech job density that pulls all the support jobs up with them.
There’s other places that have them too and similar density and wages, but they’re just as expensive. And Austin has some of those jobs and steadily getting better, but unless you go Northeast, little competes with the solid mass and number, if dwindling, high paying jobs across large swaths of SoCal and NorCal.
December 3, 2015 @ 2:35 PM
Even buying a home in a
Even buying a home in a decent area in TX where there are Job’s (Dallas, Austin etc…)
Its not Cheap, the the property Tax will likely drown you.
December 3, 2015 @ 2:41 PM
We’ve made #3 spot on CNN’s
We’ve made #3 spot on CNN’s list: http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2015/12/02/hottest-housing-markets-2016/3.html
They’re expecting 10% increase. We’ll see where we land in 12 months.
December 3, 2015 @ 11:08 AM
bearishgurl wrote:
For a
[quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
This is interesting to me, because I have always assumed anyone not anchored by children and grandchildren would sell their home after retirement and move someplace cheaper.
December 3, 2015 @ 11:30 AM
poorgradstudent
[quote=poorgradstudent][quote=bearishgurl]
For a longtime CA resident, I have found that the grass isn’t always greener outside of Cali … for retirement purposes, that is.[/quote]
This is interesting to me, because I have always assumed anyone not anchored by children and grandchildren would sell their home after retirement and move someplace cheaper.[/quote]
poorgradstudent, I’m living around mostly homeowners who are “grandparents.” The ones with grandchildren who are living locally (i.e. <10 miles away) are very active in their grandchildren’s lives. Some of them even provide regular after-school care. The one’s whose grandchildren attend school locally (but in a different district) see their grandchildren regularly. The ones who have grandchildren out of county/out of state see their grandchildren once or twice per year if they’re not too old to travel. None of these people are going anywhere!
Not every young family can afford to live where they grew up … in this case, Chula Vista. Or they could IF they could land a well-enough paying job in SD County. Some of them took the jobs they were offered in other locales after college graduation and there is nothing wrong with that. It’s as it should be.
December 3, 2015 @ 3:22 PM
FYI. Websense moved from San
FYI. Websense moved from San Diego to Texas. They are moving back. Notice the recent string of hirings? All in San Diego. Sources say they had a problem find qualified talent.
December 3, 2015 @ 6:58 PM
Another point I’d add is
Another point I’d add is older retirees with grown kids, etc…also don’t move to lower cost places like in other states. Reason is Prop 13…A lot of these people like my parents, aunts, etc have such a low tax basis, no mortgage, etc…that buying anything else now would cost them hundreds/thousands more per month probably…Wherever they live, staying put in their “older” house is simply cheaper.
That limits move up supply in the nicer areas they live in and again, it’s all about the local supply here. Rents are still insane and the builders don’t build unless things are sold…
December 3, 2015 @ 7:03 PM
I might be in the minority
I might be in the minority here, but I am in the camp that believes the inverse relationship between interest rates & housing prices. I would say house prices will be flat to negative – depends on how much the feds will raise the interest rate. I don’t see SD appreciate 10% next year. $600K+ for 40 years old 3/2 or 4/2 tract home in mira mesa? Not seeing it.
December 4, 2015 @ 11:14 AM
ltsdd wrote:I might be in the
[quote=ltsdd]I might be in the minority here, but I am in the camp that believes the inverse relationship between interest rates & housing prices. I would say house prices will be flat to negative – depends on how much the feds will raise the interest rate. I don’t see SD appreciate 10% next year. $600K+ for 40 years old 3/2 or 4/2 tract home in mira mesa? Not seeing it.[/quote]
Clearly an increase in interest rates can have a negative impact on prices. But rates are still *really* low, and I personally (mostly guessing) don’t expect the Fed to raise rates all that quickly in 2016. My personal (wild) guess is they will raise them in December and watch and see what happens both domestically and globally.
That 10% estimate seems just silly to me, unless they’re looking at a weird metric like median home sale price, and even then I am extremely skeptical that’s plausible. Today’s 500k homes aren’t going to be 550k at the end of next year.
December 5, 2015 @ 3:54 AM
This isn’t rocket science. It
This isn’t rocket science. It continues to be substantially cheaper to buy than rent for single family homes if you have income enough to itemize and the credit to get a good 30 year rate.
That was not at all the case in the 2005-07 bubble period. Since then rents have gone up about 30% and 30-year mortgage rates have gone from about 6.5% to 3.75%.
This is why nobody is selling but a lot of people are in the market.
I’ll guess 11% increase.
December 5, 2015 @ 5:59 AM
BG, glad to hear you’ve
BG, glad to hear you’ve reconsidered staying in San Diego. Would hate to see you give up what you have and wish you could get it back. We’ve known people who have left, and were never able to return.
Like you, we’ve actually looked (and even lived) in many other places but, for many of the reasons you’ve mentioned, have come to the conclusion that we want to keep San Diego as our home base.
We know we could never replace what we have here anywhere in the world + my wife plans to stay active in the film business for many years to come, the kids come and go a lot, and most of our friends and family are somewhere in the state.
Enjoy!
December 5, 2015 @ 6:45 PM
flyer wrote:BG, glad to hear
[quote=flyer]BG, glad to hear you’ve reconsidered staying in San Diego. Would hate to see you give up what you have and wish you could get it back. We’ve known people who have left, and were never able to return.
Like you, we’ve actually looked (and even lived) in many other places but, for many of the reasons you’ve mentioned, have come to the conclusion that we want to keep San Diego as our home base.
We know we could never replace what we have here anywhere in the world + my wife plans to stay active in the film business for many years to come, the kids come and go a lot, and most of our friends and family are somewhere in the state.
Enjoy![/quote]
flyer, I, too, have known several people who have sold their (often longtime, beloved) home in SD County, moved to another state and immediately bought a home and decided within two years that the new locale was not for them so sold their home there quickly (for a loss, due to lack of appreciation plus selling costs) and came crawling back to a (more expensive) SD than they left.
All were 55-75 years of age when they left SD for “greener (cheaper) pastures” in other states and as you might surmise, their returns to SD did not end well. Two couples stayed with us for up to two months (different times) and found that they could not even afford to rent (didn’t want apt) and so left again for Central Valley and AZ respectively without ever taking their household goods out of storage. Another couple who were good friends followed their grandchildren to TX and built a big beautiful home there with a covered pool, cabana and the works, having sold the custom home here which they had built themselves 25 years before. The couple ended up divorcing in TX and selling their spread in a “fire sale” thereby losing nearly all the equity in their old SD homestead. The ex-wife (at the age of 66) ended up coming back to SD a little over 2 years later and renting a detached condo about two miles from their old homestead. However, it was across a fwy and the neighborhood of her rental was several notches below what they had left just two years prior. A fourth couple (old friends of my ex-spouse) sold a Clairemont Mtn Street home (4/2/2) they had purchased 15 years earlier and moved to the state of LA where the husbands relatives lived. That only lasted 9-10 months and they also came back to SD relatively broke (not sure why) and stayed with the wife’s daughter for a while but couldn’t find anyplace suitable and affordable enough to rent (they had a fairly large dog).
I have lost touch will all of these people but even back in the late ’80’s thru early 00’s when these longtime San Diegans tried their luck elsewhere, all of them came back “home” to SD in much worse financial shape then when they left. None migrated to “high-cost” areas and ALL were too old to recover from these decisions.
I learned at lot of these lessons earlier in life from watching others make mistakes.
I’m still reserving the right to lease my home out should I decide to try living elsewhere but that “elsewhere” is very likely to be “elsewhere in CA.”
December 5, 2015 @ 6:57 PM
Have heard about and seen
Have heard about and seen some of the same, BG. Sad to hear that people literally ruined their lives by making bad decisions later in life when there was no way to recover.
We leased some of our homes out when we were traveling around for extended periods of time. It’s a great way to keep your home base, while you are checking out other options, and I think that would be a great idea for you, too.