1990s Level Unemployment, Only Much Faster

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 5, 2009 - 9:43pm

Today the California Employment Development Department revealed, unsurpringly, that San Diego's job losses have been severe. The latest update included a revision to last year's data, which painted a bleaker picture of recent months than had previous releases. (This is also unsurprising, given some of the statistical jiggering that takes place with the job numbers).

The graph below shows the year-over-year rate of change for the three hard-hit sectors related to housing, as well as the rest of the economy and all sectors combined. Remember, this is a rate of change graph. So if a line turns up but is still below zero, as in the case of finance, that means that the sector in question is still shrinking, but just not as quickly as before. And if a line is below zero but flat, as in construction, that means that the sector is still losing jobs, but is doing so at a steady rate.

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by Fearful on March 6, 2009 - 9:07am.

The final chart of the three, correlated to the article headline, is by far the most worrisome. Here we are twelve months into a recession, and the unemployment number is accelerating upward.

I hope I am not the only one that concludes this ends badly.

The only optimistic note I think I can strike is that area unemployment is still lower than the state average.

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 6, 2009 - 10:23am.

After seeing that third graph, I may change my username to "Fearful" also.

Submitted by peterb on March 6, 2009 - 12:11pm.

Well, let's see...unemployment soaring to record levels, 20% of all mortgages upside down and 12% of all mortgages slipping into non-performing status. I would say that by about Sept 2009, there's going to be a very different world than the one we've all been bantering about on this site for the last couple of years.

Submitted by Lander on March 6, 2009 - 3:01pm.

We haven't passed the 1990s unemployment peak yet....

Looks like Sacramento beat out San Diego for this ignominious milestone (10.4% in Jan 2009 v. 9.3% in Feb 1993).

Submitted by Scarlett on March 6, 2009 - 4:07pm.

The huge housing bubble bursting must have contributed to see this faster increase in job loss seen in the last graph... my 2 cents. I wasn't here in 1990s but I was told that the bubble then was not half as bad...

Submitted by La Jolla Renter on March 6, 2009 - 5:16pm.

The housing bubble was not as bad in the 90's because the terms:

liar loan
neg am
0 down
125% LTV
5% 30yr fixed

did not exist.

Submitted by CricketOnTheHearth on March 6, 2009 - 6:52pm.

What about "balloon payment"?

Submitted by blahblahblah on March 9, 2009 - 10:15am.

I remember all of the housing bulls saying that a 90s-style bust could never happen in San Diego because our unemployment would never get that high. They always said that in the 90s we depended on defense jobs but now we are more diversified.

I would like to laugh at this but unfortunately I might be the next to lose my job!

If only we had listened to Ross Perot -- "We don't hafta NAFTA!" maybe there would be more jobs here still...

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